Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Predictions and Odds:

Three is the magic number for the Chiefs. The franchise has rewarded its three biggest stars — quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and defensive tackle Chris Jones — with fat contracts, removing the potential for offseason distractions as coach Andy Reid leads the pursuit of the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Kansas City has handled the target on its back, winning the AFC West by three games last year and by four games in 2022. The roster, and especially the wide receiver depth chart, is stronger on paper than it was last season. Everything starts at the top with Reid and general manager Brett Veach, who earns an “A” for his work in the draft and free agency. The Chiefs show no signs of slipping.

Offense

Mahomes, the most dynamic player in the league, was able to make up for the Chiefs’ offensive deficiencies last season. In 2022, Kansas City led the NFL in scoring at 29.2 ppg, a number that dropped to 21.8 and ranked 15th in 2023. There were not as many explosive plays, mainly because the receiver group was inexperienced and unreliable. 

 

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The Chiefs scored 31 points or more in only three of 21 games a year ago, but that will change. The vertical passing attack is coming back with the additions of free-agent veteran Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy, who possesses Tyreek Hill-type speed. Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards and had 44 receptions, is a hard-charging and versatile running back. 

The line looks solid with veterans Joe Thuney, Jawaan Taylor, Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey returning and rookie second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia ready to contribute. Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Justyn Ross and Skyy Moore give Mahomes plenty of weapons in addition to Kelce, Brown and Worthy. Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41) in 2022, but his production declined to 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. With a much-improved supporting cast, expect Mahomes’ numbers to soar again.

Defense

Steve Spagnuolo, arguably the best defensive coordinator in the business, painted a masterpiece in the playoffs. After Kansas City’s defense ranked No. 2 in yards allowed (289.8 per game) and scoring (17.3 ppg) in the regular season, Spagnuolo’s unit surrendered only 15.8 ppg in postseason victories over Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore and San Francisco. Chris Jones is a disruptive force in the middle of the line, and edge rusher George Karlaftis tied Jones with 10.5 sacks last season. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, a first-round pick in 2023, is expected to emerge as another tough edge rusher. There is impressive depth on the line and with a linebacker crew led by Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. The team’s biggest offseason loss was cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who was traded to Tennessee, but All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie can assume the responsibility of locking down No. 1 receivers. The defense will be tested in September by opposing QBs Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and Justin Herbert (Chargers).

Outlook

It’s sharp and trendy to tout underdogs, but a focused favorite is sometimes the best bet on the board. The Chiefs, who have won eight straight AFC West titles and back-to-back Super Bowls, are focused on making NFL history. Mahomes became the full-time starter at the beginning of the 2018 season, and Kansas City has since cranked out regular-season records of 12-4, 12-4, 14-2, 12-5, 14-3 and 11-6. The 11-win low point arrived last season when the offense slumped, but this year’s team is more talented and should reach at least 12 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Over 11.5 Wins

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