Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to Week 9 in the NFL:

I understand Thursday NFL games are hard on the teams—short week, not much rest time for the players, or preparation. Sunday to Thursday becomes a blur, and often, teams don’t play their best or show us their true capabilities. Let’s hope that is the reason for the Texans’ horrendous performance last night in their loss to the Jets. They looked flat, unimpressive, and like a team that is winning the South more because of the ineptness of their opponents than the quality of their play. 

In their six wins, the Texans have won five of them by less than a touchdown. They relish winning close games largely due to their outstanding kicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, who before last night was 9-10 on his kicks over 50 yards. If you remove those 27 points from the Texans, we might not be talking about them as a team capable of winning a title. Last night, Fairbairn didn’t have his best outing, missing a 27-yarder and a 56-yarder, and the Texans lost the game by 8. The point here is the Texans’ margin for winning is the same, even when star wide receiver Nico Collins returns. 

 

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Quarterback CJ Stroud was great last night and continues to shine in his second year.  However, those around him don’t, specifically the offensive line.  Going into the game, the Texans line was an issue. Their first-round pick in 2022, left guard Kenyon Green, has struggled all season, failing to protect Stroud. For the second week in a row, he was benched as he was a turnstile, forcing Stroud to run for his life too often. His backup, Kendrick Green, wasn’t much better, and neither was the rest of their line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil leads the league in penalties and isn’t playing anywhere near his former Pro Bowl level. The Jets feasted on this line, setting up shop in the backfield and only allowing Stroud to complete 11 passes all night. 

The Texans offensive line problem wasn’t a one-night issue. Going into the game, they ranked 28th in sacks allowed, 28th in penalties, 27th in first-down efficiency, and 29th on throws over 20 yards. Based on these numbers, this wasn’t a Jet problem. This is an ongoing issue being masked by Stroud’s ability to avoid the rush. Last night, he had 59 yards rushing, even though he was sacked eight times. It might have been higher had he not been able to shrug off tacklers. And the scary part was he took some vicious hits, causing him to lie on the ground, making all of us fearful he might have an injury. 

The question the Texans face as they head back to Houston is: can they get this offensive line to play better? Yes, the trading deadline is coming up next week, but no team trades good offensive linemen. They are rare to find, and when you have one, you hold onto them even if they will become free agents at the end of the season. The Texans will have to make do with what they have—which means they must improve—quickly. 

Most everyone talks about the return of Collins and the loss of Diggs, which affected the offense. And yes, both players are vital to the Texans, yet not as vital as improving their offensive line. They ranked 27th for the season in offensive efficiency before the game, which makes general manager Nick Caserio nervous and busy on the phone looking to make moves. Caserio isn’t afraid to make trades or send draft picks out in exchange for players who can improve the team. He will be aggressive.  And unless he does something, I don’t like the Texans’ chances to be more than the AFC South champion. 

NFL QB Ratings

TOP FIVE        

1. Josh Allen – He threw his first interception of the year vs. Seattle last week, which didn’t cause them any harm. His ability to make plays with his arm and feet makes the Bills offense November and December ready. 

2. Jayden Daniels – One of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL, already. 

3. Lamar Jackson – Harry Houdini would have been proud of Jackson last week in Cleveland as he escaped all the tacklers. Jackson got the ultimate tribute this week, being named the best player on the All-Belichick team. 

4. Jared Goff – Didn’t even have to throw for 100 yards and beat the Titans.

5. Joe Burrow – He gets no help from the run game or the offensive line, yet he still is able to make great throws.  

BOTTOM FIVE

28. Bo Nix – Nix is getting better each week and won’t be in the bottom five for much longer.

29. Daniel Jones – It never gets better, nor does he make plays when the game is on the line. 

30. Gardner Minshew – Minshew can be hot and cold. Against the Bengals, he will need to protect the ball. 

31. Bryce Young – Young is playing once again on the worst offense in the NFL. 

32. Will Levis, Mason Rudolph – No decision has been made on who will start vs the Patriots. Does it matter? Yes, Rudolph is significantly better than Levis and still not good enough. 

2024 NFL Power Ratings

There are so many bad teams in the NFL, my ratings have over eight teams in the area normally reserved for the first pick in the draft. Carolina is hands down the winner in this area, as they are significantly worse than even the bad teams. The league is becoming the haves and the have-nots, and that separation is continuing to widen. 

  1. Detroit
  2. Buffalo
  3. Baltimore
  4. Kansas City
  5. Washington
  6. Pittsburgh
  7. Houston
  8. LA Chargers
  9. Green Bay
  10. Chicago
  11. Minnesota
  12. Philadelphia 
  13. Denver
  14. San Francisco
  15. Tampa
  16. Arizona
  17. Cincinnati
  18. NY Jets
  19. Indianapolis
  20. Seattle
  21. LA Rams
  22. New Orleans
  23. Atlanta
  24. NY Giants
  25. Cleveland
  26. Miami
  27. Dallas 
  28. Jacksonville
  29. Las Vegas
  30. Tennessee 
  31. New England
  32. Carolina 

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

The Broncos are much improved, which was expected, knowing how a good head coach like Sean Payton operates. He is demanding, tough-minded and does not lose games with his play calling or game management. The improvement of the team was expected, even though he was starting a rookie at quarterback. The defense being this good was a surprise, and credit Vance Joseph for building a physical unit with a bunch of players no one heard about before this season. (That does not include Zak Allen). How are they nine points worse than the Ravens? I fully expect the Ravens to win, coming off their tough loss in Cleveland last week. I am hesitant about laying the nine and hesitant about taking the nine. When hesitation calls, I call John and Daryl. 

NFL Line of the Week

The Saints have lost six in a row since they opened the season with two impressive wins.  They now are the sixth team in NFL history to accomplish this goal (the last team was the Cowboys in 2015). Those five teams finished with six wins or less, which doesn’t bode well for the Saints. No matter how badly the Saints have played in recent weeks, they are still a 7-point favorite on the road to the Panthers, which tells you how bad the Panthers have been. In almost every category I value that determines game success, the Panthers are at or dam close to the bottom. They are god awful. Which is why a bad team is a 7-point favorite. 

Enjoy the games. 

For more NFL Week 9 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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