The New Look Kansas City Chiefs

After the Chiefs/Ravens game ended on Sunday, I skipped the trophy ceremony and went to the gamebook to review the statistics, hoping to further understand how the Kansas City Chiefs win. From watching, I knew the Chiefs had run the ball effectively and controlled the line of scrimmage. But much to my surprise, Chiefs coach Andy Reid calling 32 running plays, compared to 16 for the Ravens, was staggering.

Reid hates to call runs. His idea of a good run is a reverse with a reverse off the first reverse. He loves deceptive runs, creative runs, outside the box kind of runs. The gamebook was clearly shedding light on Reid as a coach: He hates losing more than he hates calling runs.   

 

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The Christmas Nightmare

Having a bad Christmas day can cause anyone to behave differently. Reid had a horrible start to the holy day, losing to the Raiders, turning the ball over for two scores and watching his offense melt down. With the Raiders not completing a pass after the first quarter, the Chiefs got embarrassed on Christmas, losing at home to the Raiders 20-14 after scoring 31 points to beat them in Week 12. 

As much as Andy loves a good turducken on Christmas, nothing tasted good after that loss. He knew he needed to change his mindset of how to move the ball. He also knew he needed to rein in quarterback Patrick Mahomes from looking for the big play, holding the ball too long and taking sacks. Mahomes was trying to win the game himself, always swinging for the fences.

Reid also knew he needed to fix the offensive line. His tackles were not reliable when having to protect for an extended time. The next day, Reid gave the Chiefs the best Christmas gift of all, a dose of reality. No longer were the Chiefs going to try and be the old Chiefs. The new Kansas City Chiefs were going old school. They were going back to the simplest version of the West Coast and highlighting their three best players, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes. 

The Kansas City Chiefs’ New Strategy

Starting with the Bengals game, Reid was going to run Pacheco more often, balance his offense, and string together good plays. He didn’t want to take any sacks or negative plays. He gave up the hopes of a one-play scoring drive and knew that if he could control the ball, milk the clock, and be timely with his scoring, his defense was good enough to win the game.

Reid understood he needed to avoid losing first, something he didn’t do in the Raiders game. Over the last four games, the Chiefs had run 248 plays: 112 runs and 132 passes. In those four games, the Chiefs have 40 drives, with 20 consisting of seven plays or more and 16 resulting in points. They have averaged 5.85 per play, been in third down 51 times and converted 18 for a 35% conversion rate. In those games, they have attempted to convert on fourth down four times, being successful three.

Their longest play over the last four games was a 67-yard pass to Rashee Rice in the Bengals game. Overall, five plays have been 35 yards or under and 18 have been between 29-20. Reid has gotten Mahomes to dink and dunk, run the ball, and be efficient. He also has gotten his team to protect the ball, only having two fumbles in four games, no interceptions and just nine three-and-outs in four games. By changing the offensive approach, the Chiefs are 4-0 in the last four, averaged 23.7 points per game, and have allowed 14.5 points, forcing five turnovers. 

The mark of any great coach is to adjust his team based on the personnel during the season, understanding how to play each game and what gives his team the best chance to win. Reid has demonstrated his elite coaching by altering his game strategy. The dramatic shift of styles is the only chance the Kansas City Chiefs had to win games and now they have developed the confidence needed to win the biggest game of all.  The question remains, can this style beat the 49ers? 

This style isn’t foolproof. The Chiefs trailed 17-13 to the Bengals and Bills at the half, leading Miami 16-7, and Baltimore 17-7.  When controlling the clock and taking seven or more plays to score, this approach is always going to come down to the fourth quarter and the ability to make the right play at the right time. And the Chiefs seem to relish this idea. 

No longer do they appear frustrated or panicked if they don’t score in two plays. They have become methodical in their approach and understand this is how they must play to win. For Reid and the Chiefs, winning is all that matters. 

Can the San Francisco 49ers Win?

The most alarming aspect of the game for the 49ers is they have reached the Super Bowl, and the best part of their team, the defensive line, hasn’t played anywhere near their talent level. The 49ers have been vulnerable in the last two games because their front hasn’t been able to control the line of scrimmage, hasn’t been able to constantly harass the quarterback, and unlike last week, when the 49ers moved Goff off his spot, Mahomes becomes an even better player when the pocket breaks down.    

If the 49ers front doesn’t improve and doesn’t become the force they need, then this new Chiefs approach will control the ball for 40 minutes, score 27 points, and walk away with the win. Looking at the Chiefs over the last four weeks and examining the 49ers for the last two, it’s easy to understand why the money has been pouring in on the Chiefs. Am I ready to go there?  Not yet. I need more time to process the game and think of ways the 49ers can counter the new-look Kansas City Chiefs. 

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