Making Sense of the NFL’s Offseason Moves

Instagram influencer Annie Agar had the perfect post when the Bears traded Justin Fields on Saturday while the city was celebrating St. Patrick’s Day.  Agar said, “The Bears traded Justin Fields while all of Chicago was drunk so they couldn’t get mad.” So true. As the Windy City sobered up, the news of trading the beloved Fields for a sixth-round pick in 2025, the equivalent of a seventh-round pick this season, is staggering. How could this happen? How could someone so loved go for basically loose change in the couch? 

The blame game begins, with all eyes on Ryan Poles, the Bears’ general manager. As of last week, he was still doing research on the top players and proclaimed he hadn’t even tried to trade Fields. Cue Frank Pentangeli from The Godfather, Part II: “Lies, lies, all lies.” 

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

The lack of compensation for Fields isn’t on Poles. God knows he tried to create a market. He had his insiders spread the story of a potential first-round pick coming back at the Super Bowl. Then it went to a second, and before long, the word was Poles was looking for a deal similar to what the Chiefs paid for Alex Smith in 2014 from the 49ers. No offers came. 

As the NFL quarterback market settled, with Kirk Cousins heading to Atlanta and Gardner Minshew to Las Vegas, Poles had no team with a starting position available outside the top three drafting teams to discuss trade options. And when Kenny Pickett was traded to Philadelphia, Poles had to take Omar Kahn’s offer in Pittsburgh or face the reality of gaining nothing. 

This isn’t on Poles, this is squarely on Fields, whose tape doesn’t support the media and Bears fans overwhelming and delusional love. There has never been a wider gap for any player (maybe since MVP Mitch Trubisky) between how the fans view the player’s talent and how the professionals in the league see it.

Atlanta’s number-two personnel man, Ryan Pace, the man responsible for drafting both Trubisky and Fields while the general manager in Chicago, couldn’t get anyone in Atlanta to buy into Fields, so they spent $180 million during NFL free agency to get Cousins. Luke Getsy, who coached Fields the last two seasons, picked Minshew over Fields—ouch. Poles can try to manipulate the narrative, but he cannot manipulate the game tape. And the game tape, when viewed by people who understand the essentials of being able to throw the ball effectively in the NFL, was unanimous—Fields wasn’t a starter. 

Hopefully, Fields can repair his career in Pittsburgh by playing behind Russell Wilson. With the pressure off him to be the MVP or lead the Bears back to respectability, perhaps Fields can concentrate on the areas needed for improvement. 

NFL Free Agency Notes

Depth Chart Names vs. Reality

Names that appear to solve a problem on the depth chart and getting the actual performance on the field are two different variables. For example, during NFL free agency, the Jets signed Tyron Smith to be their starting left tackle. Smith, who has played in 30 games over the last four seasons, is an upgrade if he is on the field and healthy. However, there are always problems with his health, keeping him off the practice field and affecting his level of performance.

The Cowboys could have easily matched the deal at $6.5 million in Smith’s base salary (forget the $20 million media hype on the contract). They chose to pass. Why? Are they dumb, cheap, or lazy? No, they know. They lived with Smith for his entire career. They know the injury history better than the injury report’s clinical data. They know the viability of dependability, and they passed, which has to worry any Jets fan. When the home team passes, there is cause for alarm, especially when the contract was outrageous.  And further, just because the Jets signed him doesn’t mean they are not drafting a lineman. On the contrary, they should since Smith is a one-year band-aid, and if Aaron Rodgers is going to play more than one season next year, left tackle will be a huge problem. 

What Am I Missing?

At the opening of NFL free agency, the Bears were the first team to announce a deal, signing D’Andre Swift to essentially a two-year deal at $16.5 million. They guaranteed $14 million of the deal and can walk away in year three with minimal dead cap. Swift is a good player, shows talent in all three phases needed for a running back, and can impact the passing game, block in protection, and run inside and outside. So what’s the problem? Besides paying more for Swift than it would have cost to resign David Montgomery last season, the Bears get a player that two teams have walked away from and either drafted or signed another running back for big money. 

I’m a Swift fan, but what makes me nervous is that the Lions and Eagles might know something that is not obvious on the tape. For the first time in his career, Swift started more than 10 games and had over 200 carries for the Birds. He added 39 receptions for 214 yards and a 5.5 average, the lowest by far in his career. His career average is 7.2 per catch, which is solid, yet Philadelphia couldn’t make him a bigger part of their passing game. Is this due to Swift declining or the Eagles’ inability to orchestrate his involvement in the down-the-field passing game? Only time will tell. I like Swift’s game, but I feel I am missing something. 

The Obvious

Atlanta signing Kirk Cousins during NFL free agency was an obvious improvement for their team. From 2011 until 2021, the Falcons had stability at the quarterback position with Matt Ryan. Since his departure, they have been searching. First, they refused to engage in any discussion about Lamar Jackson because they believed so strongly in Desmond Ridder’s potential. And then, when Ridder failed, they spent a lot of money fixing the one position they needed to repair. The Falcons believe that, with all sincerity, they are one player away and that one player is Cousins. 

While working on my book Football Done Right, I studied teams that believed they were one player away, from the 1974 Packers to the 1989 Vikings. Each time a team believed one player would solve all their problems, they were wrong, and new problems arose. 

After the announcement of Cousins, sports books moved the Super Bowl odds for the Falcons from 35-1 to 25-1, hardly an indication one player can solve all their problems. If healthy and fully recovered from the Achilles, Cousins will improve the Falcons. Does it make them a Super Bowl contender? Call me highly doubtful. 

Double Take

There is always one player or two that secure a huge deal in NFL free agency, leaving me to wonder: Who was the competition?  Why would a team have to overpay for that player?  Was it good agenting or desperation by the team? 

When Miami offensive guard Robert Hunt became a $20 million-a-year player, I did the double take. Yes, I understand the guard market was strong, with teams looking to solidify the inside of their offensive line to keep the “paint’ clean to allow quarterbacks to climb the pocket. But having the Carolina Panthers offer $20 million per year to a guard from Miami, a team that specialized in getting the ball out quickly and hiding their line with their scheme,  seemed a little rich, especially when you factor in the weight issues that have confounded Hunt for most of his career. It seems like a reach for Carolina, disguised as a way to protect Bryce Young.

Look, I am all for protecting Young. In adding Damien Lewis as well, for four years and $13.2 per year, along with Austin Corbett from last year, Ikem Ekwonu from two years ago, and resigning Taylor Moton, the Panthers have five of their offensive linemen in the top seven of their salary cap structure, and I’m not sure they have improved. I love the allocation of dollars to the offensive line, but I am not in love with paying $20 million for a guard with pass protection issues. 

Because they run the same defensive scheme, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh was once the defensive coordinator of the 49ers, the exchange of players from the Niners to the Jets is natural. This kind of movement occurs all the time in the NFL. The Commanders have signed four former Cowboys to their team because new head coach Dan Quinn knows them as players and people, feeling he can build his culture around them. So, when Javon Kinlaw left the 49ers to join the Jets on a one-year deal, it seemed sensible. Kinlaw was drafted to replace DeForest Buckner in San Francisco, giving them a cheaper option than redoing Buckner’s deal.

Kinlaw started 12 games in his first year; since then, he has started 16 games over the last three seasons. He has amassed five sacks over his four-year career, 3.5 coming last year. For most of his career in the Bay area, he was viewed as a bust—11 hits on the quarterback, seven tackles for loss and 31 solo tackles aren’t what the 49ers expected when they made the selection. So Kinlaw coming to New York makes sense, as he is reuniting with Saleh, who was instrumental in drafting him. When I reviewed the contract and saw it was a one-year deal for $7.25 million, I was stunned. Who was competing for him? And why did the Jets have to overpay? I’m fully aware getting him for the minimum wasn’t realistic. But $7.5 million for one year? With Tyron Smith and Kinlaw, the Jets spent 13.75 for two rentals without assurances they gained starters—Smith because of durability and injury concerns and Kinlaw because of past performances. 

Eight I Like…

  1. Bryce Huff to Philadelphia.  I would have rather given him the $13.75 million and kept him on the Jets. Huff is going to help Philadelphia.
  2. What Minnesota has done this off-season, from fixing their defense to having another first-round pick to get their quarterback of the future potentially. The Vikings have been shrewd. 
  3. I love Sam Howell for Seattle. He cost them nothing in the trade, and if they can get him back on track after the Commanders almost killed him with their protection schemes, they might have a real challenger to compete against Geno Smith. 
  4. If you’re going to overspend in NFL free agency, get quality. The Raiders got a red-chip tackle to play alongside Maxx Crosby. They strengthen a strength which I always love. 
  5. Houston made San Francisco-like moves, strengthening their defensive line with the addition of Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry and Del’Shawn Phillips. 
  6. Indy used their cap room to resign their key players to extensions, which is always smart. Spend on players you know, not ones you don’t. 
  7. Derrick Henry is still an effective player, and his skill set might force Lamar Jackson to play under center more and open up the play-action pass game. Henry isn’t a great shotgun runner; he needs to be deep in the backfield and get moving downhill. 
  8. Detroit adding defensive tackle DJ Reader and two starting corners, Amik Robertson and Carlton Davis helps their defense tremendously. If Emmanuel Moseley can get healthy and play to his 22 form, the Lions are much better in the secondary as they head into the draft. 

The Rams were having a great offseason until the news of Aaron Donald retirement. Donald isn’t a replaceable player, and his impact will be missed for the Rams. Here is an excerpt from my book Football Done Right on Donald.

Donald combines great qualities similar to other Hall of Fame players, all wrapped into his body.  He has John Randle-like quickness, Randy White power and strength, Warren Sapp foot quickness, Lee Roy Selmon’s acceleration off the block, Joe Greene’s explosive shedding ability, Bob Lilly’s conditioning, Merlin Olsen competitive drive and Alan Page’s intelligence for the position. Donald isn’t lacking in any skill, and what separates him from others is his stamina, his ability to play relentlessly hard down after down, never slowing or needing to catch his breath. He is always charging, always getting stronger as the game nears the end. Many smart offensive coordinators have two game plans in one when facing an un-blockable defensive lineman.

The game will miss Donald, and so will the Rams in 2024. 

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR