The Right Gameplan Can Win the Game
When it comes to handicapping Sunday’s game, too often, we overlook Super Bowl strategy. Dismissing strategy has long been a mistake when predicting the outcome of major sporting events. When Muhammad Ali was getting ready to fight George Foreman, he watched countless hours of video of this large man destroying his opponents with his powerful punch and relentless attitude. Foreman was a beast. Many around Ali wondered what he got himself into, taking on this 25-year-old, who had knocked out 37 of his prior 40 opponents.
The more Ali watched, the more Ali saw a strategy to deploy, which would shift the odds from him getting knocked out to winning the fight. Once Ali decided rope-a-dope was his best strategy, he trained his body to handle the punches to his stomach, hoping he could endure the power until the seventh round, when Foreman would be exhausted.
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And as 60,000 people witnessed live in Kinshasa Zaire, Ali’s rumble in the jungle worked to perfection. Foreman got tired by the 7th round and was in uncharted territory for an opponent, and Ali took over the fight. For a 32-year-old warrior, Ali proved a great strategy executed with perfect training can defeat a more talented opponent.
The Chiefs Change Their Gameplan
For the last three playoff games, the Chiefs have been the team with the perfect strategy, relying on their willingness to alter their regular season play and do what is necessary to win each game. For all the talk about the greatness of the Chiefs’ defense, we do realize in the Buffalo game, they allowed 24 points, 27 first downs, five drives of over 11 plays or more, with three drives resulting in 18 first downs and 21 points.
The Bills were 50% on third down, only punted twice and averaged 4.7 yards rushing and 4.8 passing over 78 plays and controlling the ball for 37:03. The Chiefs won the game because their offense averaged 7.7 per play over 47 plays as they only had the ball for 22:57. Their defense was able to get two big stops in the fourth, and the Bills missed the tying field goal. The game was winnable for the Bills, yet the Chiefs made the winning plays.
So, if you are Kyle Shanahan, there is a pathway toward winning the Super Bowl, even though all the money seems to be coming in on the Chiefs. Shanahan knows his team hasn’t even played their best B-level game, let alone their best football, and yet here they are in Las Vegas. So, much like Ali, even though he is the favorite, Shanahan knows he must develop the perfect strategy to allow his team the best chance to win.
The 49ers allowed 4.1 yards rushing in the regular season, and this number ballooned to 5.6 in the two playoff games. Their opponents have attacked the edges of their defense, running at Chase Young, who plays with no physical toughness or power. ll Young wants to do his run up the field, get a sack, and let the television people head into a “remember when” conversation when he was the second overall pick in the draft.
When Randy Gregory comes in, it’s more of the same, and the 49ers miss Clelin Ferrell’s ability to set an edge with power. The Chiefs’ script will include wide runs, and if the 49ers don’t show the ability to protect their edges, they will be in trouble.
The 49ers Super Bowl Strategy
If I were Shanahan, stopping the run would worry me, improving the defensive tackling is a must, but my biggest fear is the same fear Ali had—don’t lose the match early. Ali wanted to extend the fight, and for Shanahan, the Chiefs’ offensive script is his biggest concern.
The “script” developed by 49ers Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh has been on point in the last three playoff games for the Chiefs. Andy Reid has been on point with attacking the opponents with his best plays and gaining momentum early in the game. If the 49ers come out with their usual fronts and coverages, Reid will have Mahomes throwing darts and moving the ball down the field for points.
Steve Wilks, the 49ers defensive coordinator, needs to alter his usual defensive approach, make the Chiefs react to something different, force them to make adjustments and then have a secondary plan to win the fourth quarter. Remember when these two teams played in their last Super Bowl, the Chiefs scored 21 fourth-quarter points to win the game. They gained 242 yards in the second half to take the game over and overcome a ten-point deficit. Once the Chiefs found their rhythm and figured out the code to beat the 49ers, the Niners had no counterpunch.
As Bill Parcells learned from his high school coach Mickey Cochrane, every game is winnable, it’s your job to figure out the strategy to win the game. The Chiefs have found their way since losing to the Raiders on Christmas Day. It’s on Shanahan to find the best strategy to win this game. Can he? If Ali did, maybe Kyle can.
