MNF Packers vs. Giants Week 14 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Monday Night Football game. In Week 14, we’ll actually get two of those. But we’re focusing on just one here, and that game features the New York Giants hosting the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Packers are coming into this game after having beaten the Kansas City Chiefs last week, and this Green Bay team is just scorching hot right now. However, New York beat the New England Patriots right before a Week 13 bye, and the Giants have now won two in a row. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Packers vs. Giants preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Packers vs. Giants
Date: Monday, December 11
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC/ESPN+
Packers vs. Giants Spread
Not many teams are playing better than the Packers right now, as Green Bay has rattled off four wins in its last five games. The team is also coming off victories over Detroit and Kansas City, so you can’t say anything about the competition. However, New York has actually won and covered in back-to-back games, and the team also had a bye week to get rested and prepared for this improved Jordan Love-led offense. That makes it hard to rule out the possibility of this being a competitive game.
The Giants defense has been an issue throughout this year, but the team is actually 16th in DVOA against the pass. That’s not exactly terrible and I’d like to think that they’ll be ready to go after having the extra week. I also think that Don “Wink” Martindale will be aggressive against Love here. Martindale likes to dial up blitzes and put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and I can’t see it being any different against a signal caller that hasn’t spent all that much time under center. The Giants’ best chance of winning this game is by making Love uncomfortable in the pocket.
I do have some concerns over New York’s inability to stop the run, but that’s another area where a bye week should help. The Packers also happen to be very banged up in the backfield. It seems like they could have more options at running back in that game, but none of them are all that healthy or inspiring right now. So, this game should come down to Love’s performance. And for what it’s worth, it does look like rain and somewhat heavy winds are in the forecast. That means this might not be a quarterback-friendly environment.
The Giants won’t be in as bad of shape if this turns into an ugly game. The Packers are just 23rd in DVOA against the run this season, so New York should be able to establish Saquon Barkley here. And if the Giants can do that, that’ll mean more opportunities for Tommy DeVito to be throwing with extra time — and against defenses that could be somewhat out of position. DeVito wasn’t great against New England two weeks ago, but he threw for 191 yards with a touchdown and no picks. That gives him four touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games. So, he’s moving this offense up and down the field and he isn’t turning the ball over.
Overall, I just don’t think the Packers will win this game easily — if they win it at all. I’d much rather be on the team getting the points here, especially considering the Giants are 5-3 against the spread as home underdogs under Brian Daboll. They’re also 7-3 straight-up and 8-2 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under him.
Packers vs. Giants Total
This total is definitely on the lower side, but I think it’s understandable. The Under is actually 7-1 in the eight games New York has played as home underdogs under Daboll, and it’s also 17-7 in all the games the team has been an underdog in that span. The Under is also 5-1 when the Packers have played Monday Night Football games under head coach Matt LaFleur, and it’s also 18-10-1 in the 19 games that Green Bay has played against teams with losing records in that time.
I also just think we’re going to see a concerted effort from the Giants to establish the ground game here. They’re not going to have a chance of winning this game if they try and make DeVito match what Love does in the passing game. And if the weather does end up being less than ideal, that’s another box to check off for the Under.
Packers vs. Giants Player Props
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Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-130 – Play to -140)
Barkley hasn’t had at least 16 carries in a game since November 5th, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t a massive part of the offense this week. This Green Bay team isn’t all that reliable against the run, so New York has a real opportunity to establish the ground game here. Barkley has also had five games this season in which he has had at least 16 carries, so it’s not like it hasn’t happened at all. In fact, he has reached the mark in a majority of the games he has played. The conditions here also make it more likely that he’ll be relied on heavily.
Packers vs. Giants Prediction
There’s a good chance the Packers win this game, but I can’t see them doing it convincingly. The Giants looked like a decent team before the bye week and more time to prepare never hurt anyone. So, I’m taking the points and hoping New York can just stay competitive until the end.
Lean: Giants +7
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Packers vs. Giants!
