New York Jest 2024 Predictions and Odds:
It’s hard to find a season more disappointing than the New York Jets’ 2023 campaign. Everything was derailed four snaps in when Aaron Rodgers injured his Achilles on Monday Night Football. Rodgers returns from the injury, but a year older. Still, the expectations remain for a team with a lot of talent on the roster.
Offense
Everything hinges on Rodgers’ health and level of play. In 2022, Rodgers had posted his lowest PFF passing grade since 2017 (75.9). His turnover-worthy play rate (2.9%) was the highest since that year, and he posted the lowest yards per attempt (6.8) since 2015. Rodgers was dealing with an injury at the tail end of the 2022 season, so perhaps that explains it away. Still, he is 40 years old, meaning the decline in production could be real.
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Regardless, Rodgers has a great weapon to throw to in Garrett Wilson. The third-year receiver has had the worst group of signal-callers tossing him the ball the last two seasons and still posted consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. Mike Williams comes in from Los Angeles to be the second option. He has played in just 16 games the last two seasons, but is a rock-solid receiver who has not posted a PFF receiving grade of under 72.3 in his last six seasons.
The biggest question for New York is its offensive line. Tyron Smith is in the building, but the former Cowboy has played 30 games over the last four seasons. Morgan Moses at right tackle is by far their steadiest presence at tackle. No other rostered offensive lineman has a PFF pass-blocking grade from last season over 60 (Wes Schweitzer). Rookie first-rounder Olu Fashanu will need to progress quickly and fill a massive role for this team in 2024.
Defense
Defense is obviously the strength of this team. New York finished third in defensive EPA per play (-0.14) and it has talent at each position.
Cornerback is their glamor group. Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II and DJ Reed form arguably the best trio of corners in the league. Gardner was third among all corners in PFF defensive grade (88.6). He broke up 10 passes and allowed just one touchdown all season. He is capable of matching up with any receiver in the league.
Quinnen Williams was one of the best interior linemen in the league last season, and is balanced in his ability to both defend the run and pressure quarterbacks along the interior. He was fifth among interior linemen in pressures (70). Behind him is one of the best linebackers in the league in CJ Mosley, who is fantastic in coverage. Quincy Williams had a breakout campaign in 2023. Along the edge, Jermaine Johnson and Haason Reddick form a strong tandem. Johnson had 56 pressures in a strong sophomore season, and Reddick joins the team after posting 155 pressures over the last two seasons in Philadelphia.
Outlook
The New York Jets have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule in the league based on 2024 win totals. Their defense will be among the best in the league yet again, and this season, they should have competent quarterback play. Even if Rodgers plays at an average level similar to that of his last full season, this team has enough. The Jets won 14 games the last two seasons despite some of the worst quarterback performances in the league over that span. It’s easy to see this team taking advantage of a soft schedule to make the postseason for the first time since 2010.
New York Jets Prediction: Over 9.5 Wins
