Best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews
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(odds as of September 29, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5 -120; 53.5)
Last Sunday, the 2023 Miami Dolphins became just the fourth team in NFL history to score 70 or more points in a game behind 726 yards of total offense, which is the second-most in NFL history.
A team that scored over 70 points is an underdog the very following week? Wow, that is just too good to be true.
Well, there is a reason why. First, the Buffalo Bills are also one of the best teams in the NFL. Second, the Bills have been able to neutralize Tua Tagovailoa in his three career starts. In those starts, Tua has a 59 QB Rating with just one touchdown pass and four interceptions.
While Miami draws the fortune of avoiding a trip to Orchard Park in the cold of December and January, the Bills are always a tough matchup despite not covering (-13.5) in a 34-31 victory, which included a 25-16 first downs edge and a 423-231 yardage edge.
Bet: Buffalo -2.5 -120 (to -3)
Los Angeles Rams (+1; 46) at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts won outright in Baltimore last week as 8-point underdogs courtesy of Matt Gay becoming the first kicker in NFL history to make four field goals of 50+ yards. Meanwhile, the Rams had a poor second half on Monday night in Cincinnati and could not protect Matthew Stafford (sacked four times in the second half and six times overall), who currently ranks No. 1 in the league for big-time throws with 10 per PFF.
However, the Rams are not the only team with offensive line issues. LT Bernhard Raimann and C Ryan Kelly have already been ruled out for Sunday. RT Braden Smith and LG Quenton Nelson also missed practice time late last week. That is bad news going against Aaron Donald while having to protect Anthony Richardson, who returns from a concussion after missing last week’s game.
Despite the poor performance in the second half last week at Cincinnati, the Rams have been out-gaining their opponents by an average of 83 YPG, while the Colts have been out-gained in every game by an average of 45 YPG. The Rams also have a 70 to 53 first downs edge, while the Colts have a 64 to 56 first downs deficit.
Rams coach Sean McVay is 21-12-3 ATS in his career off of a loss (11-5 ATS on the road in that situation).
Bet: Rams +1 (to Pick)
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Titans up from +2.5 to +8.5 with Eagles down from -9 to -3 or -8.5 to -2.5.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Ravens/Browns UN 39.5
These two defenses rank 1-2 in the NFL for Opponent Yards Per Play (Cleveland – 1st 3,2 YPP; Baltimore – 2nd 4.1 YPP) and rank 1-2 in Early Down Success Rate.
Baltimore was without seven starters last week and could be down even more this week. Cleveland could also be without Deshaun Watson, who sat out most of Friday’s practice with a shoulder injury.
