NFL best bets for Week 5 from Steve Makinen

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Steve Makinen
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NFL Week 5 Best Bets

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Jacksonville vs. Buffalo

Buffalo has now reached the point of no return where the betting public thinks it compares with the best teams of all time. I saw some interesting tweets of that nature after this past week’s win over Miami regarding the Bills’ DVOA numbers. Here’s the thing though, three games do not make a season, and let’s not forget, they have already lost a game as well.

We need to cool our jets here. If I recall, Buffalo looked pretty darn good out of the gate last year as well, and have Effective Strength numbers very similar to the current season. It didn’t last. Now, as head coach Sean McDermott’s team makes its most difficult road trip of the season, they are priced in a difficult spot and are getting backed by over 80% of the DraftKings betting public in both handle and volume.

What makes this trip so difficult? For one, the game is overseas in London. For two, the Jaguars are playing a second straight game in London, which has never happened before. Talk about a “home-field advantage.” They have no travel this week, Buffalo has the utmost travel.

The Jaguars also come off their best effort of the season in the 23-7 win over Atlanta. These teams have played a very tight series of late, with underdogs covering the last five games, the average victory margin being just 4.6 PPG. This is the best the Jaguars have been during that time frame.

Take Jacksonville +5.5 or anything +/- 1 point

Carolina at Detroit

I’m not sure anyone suspected the Lions getting to a near double-digit favorite this early in the 2023 season. Sure, head coach Dan Campbell’s team was one of the hot longshot picks by many bettors, but typically, double-digit lines are usually warranted for the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers of the NFL world, not Detroit. Is the respect from oddsmakers warranted?

If you dig below the surface of just how well the Lions have played at home recently, I would say yes, unequivocally. In their last 14 games at home, the Lions are 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS at Ford Field. Now that doesn’t seem overwhelming on the surface, but you need to keep in mind that this team’s defense is better now than it’s been at any time in that span. The offense was lethal during this stretch, scoring 31.8 PPG and scoring 27 points or more in 12 of the 14 home contests.

Now I would think that if Detroit hits the 27-point mark this week, which is a conservative estimate considering that Carolina allows opponents to score 4.6 points above their averages, they will be in good shape. Doing the math on that 4.6 figure, it would put the Lions at 31.1 points here. That should easily be enough to get it done.

Take Detroit at -9.5, and I’m not scared of 10 as well.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Before last week’s results in which Baltimore won handily at Cleveland and Pittsburgh was ripped by Houston, the expected line in this week’s contest between these ultimate rivals was close to a pick ‘em, with perhaps the Ravens favored by a point or so. We are now looking at a 4.5-point line. To me, that is a massive overadjustment for one week in the NFL.

A lot of bettors are taking the bait too, as over 70% of the bet volume was on the road chalk Ravens as of this writing. Do I need to remind you that when backing road favorites last season, the majority volume bettors at DK were just 39.8% ATS? Now I get the argument that the Kenny Pickett injury may be contributing to the line speculation, but like I indicated in my college picks this week regarding Iowa, if an offense and QB are struggling, does it really hurt that team if that player needs to miss a contest?

None of this stuff touches upon the fiercely competitive nature of this rivalry and the respect that head coach Mike Tomlin has earned as an underdog. Surely you also know that underdogs are 14-1-2 ATS in the last 17 games of this Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry. If you need more, there’s also this: Play any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 50-20-1 ATS since 2013, 71.4%, +28.0 Units, 40% R.O.I., Grade 73). This was 2-1 last week already, and Pittsburgh heads to its bye after this.

Let’s take Pittsburgh +4.5 or anything +3 or over

           

Cincinnati at Arizona

Realizing that a lot can change in a few weeks, but if you go back to the season-opening week, if this game was played then, Cincinnati would have undoubtedly been a double-digit road favorite. Of course, with the Bengals averaging a paltry 12.3 PPG and QB Joe Burrow looking nothing like his former self, there is no way we could see such a number. Plus, Arizona has proven to be far more competitive than people ever figured.

So I must ask…why are the Bengals still favored here? And by 3 points to boot? This feels like a “get healthy” game to me for head coach Zac Taylor’s club. An offensive outburst opportunity if you will. The Cardinals have yielded 27.7 PPG and 416.7 yards per game in their last three outings, just what the doctor ordered for Burrow & Co. The Bengals have also been one of the league’s most reliable road teams in recent years: Cincinnati is 46-26 ATS (63.9%) in road/neutral games since 2015.

Take Cincinnati (-3) at anything up to -4

Dallas at San Francisco

It’s not very often that you get a team that has demonstrated traits of being one of the top teams in the league and coming off a 38-3 win, playing as an underdog of 3.5 points in a high-profile game. Quite frankly, both Dallas and San Francisco have been dominant in 2023 so far, and both have played fairly weak schedules against offensively inept teams.

Is there any reason to believe this game should be over the 3-point mark? I think these are two relatively even teams at this point, and only about a 2-point home-field advantage should be applied. To me, there are about 1.5 points of value here at least.

In fact, if anything, Dallas’ defense has been the better of the two teams, and their penchant for getting regular scores of their own has a chance to tilt this game in their scale. Head coach Mike McCarthy always gets his teams up for these big game primetime games as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 such contests. Also, home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have not fared well of late, showing a record of 9-12 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in their last 21. I expect a tight one here, and anything more than a FG is off as far as I’m concerned.

Take Dallas +3.5 (+2.5/+3 are also OK)

Green Bay at Las Vegas

Since winning the opener in Denver, Las Vegas has seen its season unravel in a hurry, and to be frank, the Raiders didn’t play well in their lone victory either. Now they find themselves a favorite in a “home” game that could very well turn into a neutral environment if Packers fans travel like they usually do. It sounds as if they have been, as Las Vegas is one of the Badger State’s favorite destinations.

I’m sure the Packers themselves won’t mind spending an extra day or two in Sin City as well because they hit their bye week following this game. Speaking of which, after Seattle won on this last week, play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 23-17 SU and 26-12 ATS since ’96, 68.4%, +13.7 Units, 34.3% R.O.I., Grade 65). That comes from this week’s NFL Analytics Report in the section on pre-bye week systems.

Green Bay is also 4-0 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under head coach Matt Lafleur. The Packers are also 18-9 ATS since 2018 when coming off an outright loss. This is a key game for Green Bay, a measuring stick of sorts, as taking a 3-2 record into the bye week in the first five games of the QB Jordan Love era would be a major win for the franchise. They are also getting healthier every week.

Take Green Bay +1 (or -1 or anything close really)

For more system matches and key trends, check out the Week 5 NFL Analytics Report.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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