Best bets for Week 7 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews
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(odds as of October 20, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Lions at Ravens (-3; 43)
The Detroit Lions, at 5-1, are currently ranked No. 2 in the NFL for Total DVOA behind the San Francisco 49ers. We expected that the Lions offense would be one of the league’s best, and it has been at No. 2 in Offense DVOA. However, the defense (No. 5 DVOA) has surprised thus far this season.
Detroit is absolutely legitimate. However, the betting market seems to be peaking on the Lions. One thing to keep in mind is that Detroit, despite the win in Kansas City against the defending Super Bowl Champions, has played the No. 26 schedule, which involved a weak set of quarterbacks — Atlanta (Desmond Ridder), Green Bay (Jordan Love), Carolina (Bryce Young), and Tampa Bay (Baker Mayfield).
At times, Baltimore was a bit sloppy last week in London but did win and cover vs. Tennessee. However, this was the first game of the season where the Ravens were relatively healthy. More often than not, it is the Ravens that have the lengthy injury report, but this week, it is the Lions battling heavy injuries at several positions, including at running back where David Montgomery is out, and Craig Reynolds is not likely to go with a hamstring injury. First-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs is back from his own hamstring injury but without much depth behind him. Detroit is also banged up in the secondary and on the offensive line.
While much has been made of Jared Goff being the most profitable quarterback ATS over the last six years, keep in mind that he is much better indoors (27-13 ATS) than outdoors (33-31 ATS). On the other side, Lamar Jackson is not historically a good favorite ATS, but when he is a favorite of three or less or an underdog, he is 18-4 ATS.
This is not a long-term sell on Detroit, but it is for the short term.
Bet: Ravens -150 ML
Chargers at Chiefs (-5.5; 47.5)
The Chiefs have had a couple extra days of prep off playing Thursday Night in Week 6. and the Chargers have a short week, having lost a close one late at home to Dallas on Monday Night. Yet, the line has mostly moved in the Chargers’ favor. Why?
Well, the Chargers have either led or been tied in the fourth quarter in the last four meetings with Kansas City. Kansas City did win three of the four meetings, but all four were decided by six points or less, and the game the Chiefs won by six (12/26/21) was an overtime victory.
Brandon Staley (9-4 ATS) and Justin Herbert (13-7 ATS) have been profitable as underdogs, and both of them are 67% ATS as division underdogs.
Although Kansas City barely covered against Denver, the Chiefs are just 14-27 ATS as a favorite of three points or more since November 2020.
The Chargers are 2.5 games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. They have already lost three games this season by three points or less. Perhaps they can finally win a close game, but they always seem to find a way to keep it close, as only three of their last 11 overall losses have been by six points or more since the start of the 2022 season.
In the words of longtime San Diego radio personality Lee "Hacksaw" Hamilton, "SHOW ME YOUR LIGHTNING BOLT!"
Bet: Chargers +5.5
Bills (-8; 40) at Patriots
The Bills were fortunate to escape last week against the Giants as 15.5-point favorites, as the officials did not want to call defensive holding in the end zone for the second play in a row up in Orchard Park. Meanwhile, the Patriots found a way to not cover in Las Vegas last week as the entire team and coaching staff continue to struggle.
The Bills have scored 35, 24, 37, 33, and 38 in their last five wins against the Patriots, and Bill Belichick has failed to find any answers to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.
The Bills have won already this season by 28, 28, and 34, while the Patriots lost by 34 and 35.
So, why has the number dropped to -8 out of the teaser protection range?
Well, for starters, the Bills are down four defensive starters, and Josh Allen’s shoulder did nicked up a bit last week. As bad as they are, the Patriots may get some good injury news as David Andrews, Cole Strange, Trent Brown, and Mike Onwenu all participated in Friday’s final practice. Mac Jones has shouldered the brunt of the blame for New England’s 1-5 start, and he certainly deserves his fair share, but his receivers have not helped him out much (looking at you, Devante Parker), and his offensive line has not protected him well largely, in part, due to the injuries.
The running game could help out Jones this week, as the Bills are the second-worst in the league at stopping the run (5.4 YPC).
We know how bad New England is, but this number still looks a bit high. Consider that Buffalo laid the same number (8) at home against the Raiders in Week 2 in what was a home run spot. The Patriots and Raiders would probably be a pick ’em on a neutral site.
Yes, I am ready to get hurt again.
Bet: Patriots +8 (to +7.5)
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Lions/Ravens OV 43
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Falcons +8.5/Seahawks -1.5
