NFL Week 9 Best Bets
It has been a great stretch for me in the NFL in 2023, as another 6-2 result last week pushed my season won-lost record to 35-19 (65%). This includes a 6-1 record on totals, too. Hopefully, you’ve been following along and starting to read/interpret the same things I am on the weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, because they are essentially guiding my handicapping. Let’s have another great week, as I have seven more plays lined up for Sunday & Monday of week 9 on the NFL slate.
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Miami vs. Kansas City
NFL heads to Germany this week with a very attractive matchup lined up for the local folks. This Miami-Kansas City showdown has playoff preview written all over it. Ironically, in a matchup featuring two of the premier QBs in the league, I like the underdog because it is the far better offensive team at this point.
Not taking anything away from Patrick Mahomes, but his team just isn’t clicking. They come off an ugly turnover-laden loss at Denver and qualify for a unique system because of it. NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 13-15 SU but 6-21-1 ATS (22.2%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
Defensively, head coach Andy Reid’s team is having its best season in a while, allowing just 16.1 PPG. However, the Dolphins are scoring 11.2 PPG more than their opponents allow. In fact, both formulas for offense and defense in that regard indicate that Miami should score at least 27 points here. They have hit the 30-point mark in five of eight games this season. With an 8-4-1 ATS record recently in head-to-head play versus KC, I like Miami’s chances as the dog here.
Take Miami +2 (+/- 1 OK) with some ML action as well
Arizona at Cleveland
Yes, yes, I know. I got very lucky last week with Arizona to get the point-spread win against Baltimore. However, that is the nature of the beast in the NFL, as teams cover games in the most unlikely of fashions and in spots where it looks impossible to back them.
This is another spot for the Cardinals that could prove fruitful, as they are a heavy underdog to a Cleveland team that has issues at the QB position and its offense has been dreadfully inconsistent because of it, especially in its passing game. Who could be comfortable laying points in a situation like that?
Now it’s possible that Kyler Murray could see his first action for Arizona, and that will be a welcomed boost. However, I will play it either way for the other reasons. Hopefully, you saw the new streak systems on the NFL Analytics Report this week. Here is one of the better angles available for Week 9: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-71 SU but 56-28 ATS (66.7%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006. Arizona is also on a 22-17 ATS road run and a 17-12 ATS underdog run overall. Let’s keep pushing our luck.
Take Arizona +10 or with any line movement should Murray play.
LA Rams at Green Bay
Things have gone south quickly for Green Bay since the 2-1 start, as head coach Matt LaFleur’s team has lost its last four games SU and ATS. However, there are a few reasons as to why this looks to be a game that they can turn it around, at least for one week.
First, it is the Rams coming to town, and the Packers have dominated LA at home in recent years, going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS.
Second, with QB Matt Stafford questionable to play, it takes away the one thing that has been a plus for the Rams’ offense in 2023.
Third, word out of Packers’ camp this week is that LaFleur has declared RB Aaron Jones fully recovered from his hamstring injury and he has indicated he is ready to “unleash” him. Green Bay is a different team, with Jones as the key piece in the attack.
Fourth, over 70% of the bet volume is on the Rams this game, with more handle on the hosts. In other words, more of the bigger players actually like Green Bay. Finally, I know in studying the streak systems last week, that rarely do four-game ATS losing streaks make it to five, especially when a team is favored.
Let’s go Green Bay to get a win and cover the 3 (+/- 0.5 points)
Chicago at New Orleans
For as much as I used several opportunities earlier in the season to fade New Orleans’ struggling offense, the Saints find themselves in much better shape as they get ready to host Chicago on Sunday. In fact, I believe New Orleans is worthy of the respect it is getting, despite the study I released this week showing the inconsistent ways they’ve shown at home.
This is a new and much-improved offense in recent weeks, and it naturally took some time for veteran QB Derek Carr to get control of all the weapons he possesses. Just look at the numbers. In the first four games, the New Orleans offense scored 15.5 PPG and averaged 285.3 YPG. In the four games since, they’ve put up 27.3 PPG and 413 YPG.
With QB Tyson Bagent still expected to go for Chicago this week, I don’t see any way the Bears stay in the game if the Saints offense maintains its momentum. On top of that, New Orleans is on a 6-0-1 ATS run hosting Chicago. This past week’s SNF game was a 30-13 Chargers win over the Bears. Hard to see this game going much differently.
Lay the 8 (+/- 1) with the Saints here
Dallas at Philadelphia
Huge game in the NFC East this week between conference powers, and I fear that Dallas used it up last week in the blowout win over the Rams. That, of course, was a game that featured plenty of defensive contribution against an immobile Matt Stafford.
I’ve seen it happen too often where head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams put up huge efforts one week to raise the expectations and then come out and lay an egg. In fact, in the last two games this season following a 30+ point outburst, the Cowboys scored 16 and 10 points.
Meanwhile, you got a Philly team playing at home and heading into their bye week. Big divisional games in such bring out a nice system: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 52-20-1 ATS 72.2% since 2013). The Eagles also own a seven-game SU and ATS pre-bye week winning streak as a franchise and are on an 11-1 SU and ATS pre-bye surge when favored!
If you need any more, consider the intense nature of this rivalry, where home teams are on an 8-1 ATS surge. I think this line is right where it should be, but I prefer the Eagles side, with the Cowboys getting payback later in the season.
Play Philadelphia -3 (+/- 0.5 if you have to)
Buffalo at Cincinnati
We have a very intriguing SNF game on tap for this week, and it seems to me to be a contest where you don’t want to be laying points. There are several reasons why. First, underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the BUF-CIN series, as both teams have taken offense to being called the lesser team.
Second, over 70% of the handle and money are on Cincinnati, according to DraftKings. Considering the Bengals have been so inconsistent this season and still scoring just 18.7 PPG, that has to be of concern.
Third, this is the first time in a while that Buffalo has been underpriced if you ask me, and having lost their last four ATS, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 18-59 SU but 48-27-2 ATS (64%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003. If you add that SNF home favorites of less than a TD have gone just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 tries, I think it all adds up to the Bills getting a key AFC win.
Take Buffalo +2 (anything pick ’em to +3 is fine for me, too) with some ML action
LA Chargers at NY Jets
Been a good run for me on Monday Night Football as Bill Adee has featured my NFL MNF pick on the Monday morning VSiN newsletter for three straight weeks, and each of those has won. I’m tempted to go with the Jets here in a tough traveling spot for a road favorite like the inconsistent Chargers, but just not sure how much offensive output we’re going to see from QB Zach Wilson and New York.
My effective stats numbers project the Chargers for about 20 points, but I could easily see less. As such, I’m going to focus on the total, where we find MNF home underdogs on a 15-1-1 Under the total run! We also see that the Chargers are 9-2 Under in their last 11 MNF games, and as I indicated earlier, this is a very difficult travel spot for them which could impact the offensive output. IMO, the best chance for the home Jets here is to make this a 17-16 or 19-17 type of game. I feel another primetime Under play is in the works.
Let’s go NYY-LAC UNDER 40 (+/- 1 ok too) with some NYJ action as well if you really insist
For more system matches and key trends, check out the Week 9 NFL Analytics Report.
