NFL Betting Splits update for Week 11

By
Steve Makinen
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723
 

Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

With about 2-1/2 months down and about as many to go yet in the football season, I figured this would be a good time to go back and review the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems that I introduced prior to the season and have been touting each week in the VSiN Analytics Reports. These systems, and the DK Betting Splits for that matter, have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.

 

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If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. I will be updating the systems in the Analytics Reports, as well as the Sunday (NFL) morning updates going forward.

Here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, LA RAMS

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the ’23 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings like a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade ’em.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, JACKSONVILLE, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, BUFFALO, LA RAMS

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).

System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, JACKSONVILLE, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, BUFFALO, SEATTLE

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’22 season, when the majority handle and number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) and 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.

System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, DALLAS

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches somewhat with the logic I used to explain some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.

System Match: MINNESOTA

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) & 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA

 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is another situation where going against the grain pays off.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY

 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LVR-MIA, NYJ-BUF

 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ARI-HOU, TEN-JAX, NYG-WAS, LAC-GB, DAL-CAR, TB-SF, PHI-KC

 

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-JAX, TB-SF, PHI-KC

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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