NFL Division Preview: AFC West

By
Matt Youmans
-
633
 

NFL Division Preview: AFC West

Everything starts with Patrick Mahomes in this division. The reality is the rest of the NFL is looking up at the Chiefs and their two-time MVP and two-time Super Bowl champion, but it’s the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos who are stuck with the misfortune of dealing with Mahomes twice each season. The results have been ugly for the three guinea pigs. Since becoming the starting quarterback in Kansas City, Mahomes has a 27-3 record versus AFC West opponents — 11-0 against the Broncos, 9-1 against the Raiders and 7-2 against the Chargers. 

 

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Prior to the 2022 season, this division was hyped as the toughest in the league, mainly due to the perceived strength of its four quarterbacks. Only Mahomes and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert exceeded lofty expectations and reached the playoffs, and only Mahomes won in the postseason. The Raiders’ Derek Carr was benched after a Christmas Eve loss at Pittsburgh and eventually released, and Russell Wilson was a colossal bust in his debut with the Broncos. Las Vegas is hitting the reset button with Jimmy Garoppolo. Denver hopes to salvage Wilson by finally hiring a respected offensive guru in coach Sean Payton.

Los Angeles remains the most serious threat to Kansas City’s division dominance, although the Chargers need to shed their reputation as underachievers. The Chiefs, who have won the AFC West seven straight years, are odds-on division favorites (-165) at DraftKings. An injury to Mahomes is about the only thing that could barbecue Kansas City’s season. Sharp bettors tend to gravitate to the Chargers stubbornly, the second choice (+340). A bet on the Broncos (+550) is blind faith in Payton bringing back the best version of Wilson. The rebuilding Raiders deserve to be the longest shot (11/1).

 

Denver Broncos

There is a seven-year itch in Denver to end the losing and finally return to the playoffs. It’s easy to explain why the Broncos have been so bad — doomed head-coaching hires and poor quarterback play. After the mess created by former coaches Vance Joseph, Vic Fangio and Nathaniel Hackett, Denver’s big-spending new owners have turned to Sean Payton to bring credibility and professionalism to the organization and the offense. Payton’s plan is already getting the Broncos, who slipped to 5-12 last season, more respect in the betting market. Is his quarterback in shape for a comeback?

Offense

Rewind to last summer, when the hype about Russell Wilson’s arrival created mile-high hopes in Denver. In reality, the veteran quarterback appeared old, out of shape and slow, and the Broncos scored a league-low 16.9 points per game. The franchise traded five draft picks and three players to Seattle in March 2022 for that? And don’t forget the $245 million contract extension. Wilson finished with 16 touchdown passes and was sacked 55 times. Hackett, fired with two games remaining, was worse than Wilson. Payton wants to instill a power-rushing attack to help Wilson, who claims to be in much better physical condition. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey was signed from San Francisco and left tackle Garett Bolles returns from a broken ankle. Payton signed running back Samaje Perine and will be counting on more production from receivers Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler, rookie Marvin Mims and an impressive group of tight ends. The potential is there for this offense to be explosive if Wilson does not implode. Payton will probably fix what was broken.

Defense

Joseph, 11-21 as Broncos coach in 2017-18, is back as defensive coordinator in what should be a positive move. Denver’s defense declined from third in scoring (18.9 ppg) in 2021 to 13th (21.1 ppg) last year. The secondary features corner Pat Surtain II and free safety Justin Simmons, two of the league’s best in coverage. Zach Allen and D.J. Jones anchor the front, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell is a high-motor run-stopper for a defense with strength in the middle. Denver has had a playoff-quality defense for a few years, and that’s still true.

Outlook

If Wilson has something left at age 34, Payton will find it. In 15 years with the Saints, Payton’s offenses scored more than 25 points per game 12 times and never averaged fewer than 21 points. Peyton Manning posted a 45-12 regular-season record as a four-year starter for the Broncos, who were 44-70 in the subsequent six years while finishing either third or last in the division six times. Payton has finished below .500 only four times, with 7-9 being his worst record. Denver spent a league-high $140 million in free agency this offseason to boost Payton’s rebuilding plan. A year ago, DraftKings set the Broncos’ season win total at 10, making the Under a relatively easy call. Denver won five games, four of them by one score, and lost all three times in games that went to overtime. It’s tough to bet against Payton so this is a much more difficult call with a forecast for an 8-9 finish.

Recommendation: Lean Under 8.5 wins.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2018 season, and he has helped produce regular-season records of 12-4, 12-4, 14-2, 12-5 and 14-3. Mahomes has won two Super Bowls, lost one and lost two AFC title games. DraftKings listed Kansas City as the +175 favorite to win the AFC West last year when the perception was the other three teams were closing the gap. In the end, the Chiefs won the division by four games. Mahomes and coach Andy Reid are still kings of the hill and deserve to be odds-on division favorites.

Offense

When the Chiefs traded speed-burning wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami for five draft picks, many handicappers predicted a decline in the offense. Mahomes said he wanted to prove otherwise. The offense actually improved in 2022 and led the NFL in scoring at 29.2 ppg (up from 28.2 in 2021). Mahomes topped the league in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41). The names of the receivers again will change, but expect more of the same from Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce, who totaled 110 receptions for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. JuJu Smith-Schuster, the No. 2 receiver, is gone to New England and probably will be forgotten due to the big-play trio of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. The running back roles are in good hands with Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The line should be a strength with guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey returning. K.C. made big free-agent moves by signing tackles Jawaan Taylor (Jacksonville) and Donovan Smith (Tampa Bay). The return game suffered a setback when Mecole Hardman left for the Jets, but Toney can fill the role, which he showed with a 65-yard punt return in the Super Bowl.

Defense

Pressuring quarterbacks is the calling card of a K.C. defense that ranked second in the NFL with 55 sacks, led by tackle Chris Jones with 15.5. High-motor end George Karlaftis added six sacks as a rookie and has the potential to hit double digits as he refines his pass-rush skills. The Chiefs ranked 11th in total defense (328.2 ypg) and 16th in scoring (21.7 ppg). Veteran end Frank Clark was released, but the additions of ends Charles Omenihu (San Francisco) and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah should make the front line even stronger. There is plenty of depth and talent at the linebacker spots and in the secondary to make this defense one of the AFC’s best. The tests will come early from opposing QBs Jared Goff (Lions), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Justin Fields (Bears) and Aaron Rodgers (Jets) in the first four weeks.

Outlook

DraftKings has opened Kansas City as the favorite in all 17 games. In a favorable scheduling quirk, three of the league’s elite QBs must visit Kansas City, which hosts Philadelphia (Jalen Hurts), Buffalo (Josh Allen) and Cincinnati (Joe Burrow) in November and December. The Chiefs have won the AFC West seven straight years, so it has become routine to conquer the division. Kansas City’s quest is to become the first repeat Super Bowl winner since the Patriots in 2003-04. It might be considered square to recommend a bet Over 11.5 wins, yet the Chiefs have topped that number in all five years with Mahomes as the starter so there’s no reason to buck the winning trend.

Recommendation: Over 11.5 wins.

 

Los Angeles Raiders 

Midway through his first season, coach Josh McDaniels’ honeymoon in Vegas was over. The Raiders started 2-7, beating only the Broncos and Texans, and it was around that time when McDaniels decided he would be divorcing quarterback Derek Carr. In steps Jimmy Garoppolo as the franchise continues to add former Patriots. There were rumors that McDaniels initially wanted Tom Brady as his next quarterback. Instead, Brady has signed on as a minority owner. Despite a 6-11 debut, McDaniels is not on a hot seat because owner Mark Davis has a big-picture plan to mirror the New England organization, a rebuild requiring more time and the right quarterback.

Offense

The skill-position pieces are in place for something special to happen under the play-calling guidance of McDaniels and coordinator Mick Lombardi. Davante Adams is as good as it gets, totaling 100 receptions for 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first season without Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers, a free agent from New England, line up next to Adams. Michael Mayer, a second-round pick from Notre Dame, will likely start at tight end. Josh Jacobs returns after leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards. 

Las Vegas should improve its scoring offense, which ranked 12th at 23.2 ppg. The pieces are in place if Garoppolo can stay healthy and the offensive line performs better than it projects on paper. Aside from left tackle Kolton Miller, the line talent is a question mark. The backup quarterback situation is another concern. Carr is no longer the fall guy if things break down.

Defense

In a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson as the opposing quarterbacks, it’s scary to face so many questions on defense. It obviously helps to have Maxx Crosby, who had 12.5 sacks last season, to chase those QBs. The Raiders ranked near the bottom of the league in all key defensive categories, including interceptions (six, 31st), sacks (27, 30th) and scoring (24.6 ppg, 26th). Las Vegas addressed the line in the draft by picking edge rusher Tyree Wilson in the first round and 300-pound tackle Byron Young in the third. Chandler Jones, who topped the NFL with 107.5 sacks from 2012-21, must do more after getting only 4.5 sacks. The second and third levels of the defense have too many holes, and a weak pass defense might mean the Raiders will need a high-scoring offense to win games.

Outlook

The Raiders are still paying for numerous dumb-and-dumber draft mistakes made by former coach Jon Gruden and former general manager Mike Mayock. The 10-win season of 2021 was a mirage considering the team cashed in on close-game luck by going 4-0 in overtime. Las Vegas does have elite special teamers — dead-eye kicker Daniel Carlson and punter AJ Cole — to help in tight games. Pro Football Focus ranks the Raiders 25th in the league and as the worst team in the division. Las Vegas swept Denver last season, something that’s unlikely to happen this season. A Garoppolo injury would be big trouble, and a schedule with no soft spots will make it challenging to win eight games. DraftKings opened the Raiders’ win total at 7.5 (Under -150) and sharp money has pushed the price to -180.

Recommendation: Under 7.5 wins.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Even when the Chargers seem to get it right, things go wrong. The latest L.A. fiasco was a blown 27-0 lead in a wild-card playoff loss at Jacksonville. The chants to fire coach Brandon Staley and hire Sean Payton quieted in a hurry. Despite the postseason disaster, Staley was retained, with a 19-15 record in his two years, and Payton went to Denver. The Chargers did make changes that should be for the better, and they feature one of the few elite quarterbacks who can go toe to toe with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes.

Offense

An attack criticized for being too conservative the past two years is getting an aggressive new coordinator, Kellen Moore, who designed an explosive passing game in Dallas. Justin Herbert is the primary reason for hope. The No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, Herbert has started 49 games and posted a 25-24 record. He has passed for 14,089 yards with 94 touchdowns and 35 interceptions. Few passers have compiled better numbers in their first three years in the NFL, but his zero playoff wins stick out as a sore thumb.

Herbert now has the play-calling coordinator and supporting cast to reach the next level. Veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined for only eight touchdowns last season when injuries riddled their availability. Joshua Palmer emerged as Herbert’s top receiver, and first-round pick Quentin Johnston adds a vertical threat. The team’s second-most productive player was running back Austin Ekeler, who totaled 1,637 yards (915 rushing on 204 carries; 722 receiving on 107 catches) and 18 touchdowns. Left tackle Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, and his absence was a crusher. Slater, left guard Zion Johnson and center Corey Linsley anchor one of the league’s top lines. The Chargers fielded a middle-of-the-pack scoring offense at 23 points per game yet have the talent to rank in the league’s top five.

Defense

Injuries are the X-factor for all teams, and the Chargers usually end up with bad injury luck. Last year, outside linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson each played in only five games. Staley’s defensive plan to use Bosa and linebacker Khalil Mack as bookend pass rushers never came together. Mack totaled eight sacks, and Bosa had 2.5. The defense ranked 14th in sacks (40) and 21st in scoring (22.6 ppg). The leaders on the second and third levels of the defense will be inside linebacker Eric Kendricks, second-year corner Asante Samuel Jr. and All-Pro safety Derwin James, who had 115 tackles, four sacks and two interceptions in 14 games. The Chargers ranked 30th in run defense in 2021 and 28th (145.8 ypg) in 2022. Staley has not backed up his reputation as a defensive wizard, but the Chargers’ crippling injury situation has been the biggest problem.

Outlook

The talent is obvious on paper, but the Chargers tease bettors almost yearly. While the sharps tend to tout this team, the trendy-pick optimism rarely pays off. The Chargers’ 10-7 record last year included a 2-4 division mark as they finished four games behind K.C. The Chargers last won the AFC West in 2009, a futile stretch that should end at some point during the Herbert era. If postseason success does not come soon, Staley will find a hot seat.

Recommendation: Lean Over 9.5 wins.

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