NFL Division Preview: NFC West
To nobody’s surprise, the San Francisco 49ers went 13-4 and finished atop the NFC West standings last year. A strong argument can also be made that the 49ers were an injury away from winning a Super Bowl in 2022. San Francisco lost Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship Game — or at least his ability to throw — and that ended up doing Kyle Shanahan’s team in.
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While the 49ers were supposed to win the NFC West last year, the way the rest of the division shook out was definitely a bit of a stunner. The Seattle Seahawks, who many people expected would end up with the top pick in the draft, finished second in the division and made the postseason. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams completely flamed out, going 5-12 in what was an incredibly disappointing season. And the Arizona Cardinals didn’t just finish 4-13 during the regular season, but the team also lost Kyler Murray to a torn ACL.
This year, things are expected to go similarly, with the odds predicting these teams to finish in the exact same order. The 49ers are listed at -150 to win the NFC West, with the Seahawks not too far behind at +200. The odds then suggest the Rams and Cardinals will be cellar dwellers in this division. However, Los Angeles could easily be more competitive with Matthew Stafford back in the mix. But Arizona should be a lot worse with a depleted roster and a ton of uncertainty under center. The mere presence of the Cardinals in this division is a boost for anybody looking to bet overs on the regular season win totals for their rivals.
Arizona Cardinals
The 2022 season was already looking like a rough one for the Cardinals, and it went from bad to worse when Kyler Murray tore his ACL. Arizona decided to completely clean house, moving on from general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals hired Monti Ossenfort, the former Director of Player Personnel for the Tennessee Titans, to replace Keim, while also bringing in former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as head coach. The franchise now looks to be going through a serious rebuilding project, which means the 2023 season could get ugly.
Offense
The Cardinals averaged only 20.0 points per game in 2022, and only two teams in football were worse when it came to DVOA on that side of the ball. Fortunately for Arizona, Kingsbury no longer calls the shots for this offense. He was supposed to bring a revolutionary offensive mind to the desert, but the Cardinals constantly had Murray throwing nothing but screens and short passes.
The problem for Arizona is that Murray is still recovering from a torn ACL. And the team is severely lacking in talent around him. The Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins during the offseason, leaving an unproven receiver group of Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch catching passes from Colt McCoy until Murray comes back. This could be the worst passing attack in football.
The running game isn’t going to be good either. James Conner is a solid short-yardage back, but he lacks home-run hitting ability. Without that, there’s really nothing to keep defenses honest. This team is really going to struggle to score points in 2023, and a marriage with USC quarterback Caleb Williams looks more and more possible the more you look at this depth chart.
Defense
Only the Chicago Bears gave up more points per game than the Cardinals last season. This team also lost JJ Watt, Byron Murphy and Zach Allen in the offseason, and Budda Baker wants out of Arizona. This could be one of the worst defensive teams in the league, unless Gannon can work some magic.
Gannon did oversee some very good defenses in his time as the defensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles. However, those units were loaded with talent. With the Cardinals, Gannon will need to make lemonade with very little access to lemons.
Outlook
When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Cardinals as underdogs in all 17 of their games. So, it’s a little surprising that their win total is even as high as 4.5 heading into the season. This regular season win total has Under written all over it. Arizona might pull a few wins out of nowhere, but it’s hard to see how this will be a five-win football team. And you can get +100 odds to take under 4.5
Recommendation: Under 4.5 wins.
Los Angeles Rams
After winning the Super Bowl in 2022, the Los Angeles Rams went 5-12 and finished in third place in the NFC West last season. Sean McVay’s team was completely ravaged by injuries, and the roster probably wasn’t playoff-caliber to begin with. Things won’t be too different in 2023, but Matthew Stafford will be healthy in Week 1. Having his sturdy presence under center should make Los Angeles a lot more competitive. So, while the Rams likely won’t be winning more Super Bowls any time soon, this team could still help bettors win some money.
Offense
Stafford said that he felt “refreshed” heading into the offseason, and that should be huge for the Rams’ 2023 outlook. Last year, the veteran dealt with elbow and back issues while also suffering from concussions. It was a completely lost year for the former Pro Bowler, but he’s back and ready to show off his cannon this season. And having somebody with his arm strength should open the Rams’ offense, which still has Cooper Kupp catching passes on the outside.
The question is whether Los Angeles will get anything from the running game. Everything McVay likes to do is built off the threat of the run, but the Rams’ offensive line was in shambles last year. Los Angeles will need to do a better job up front if it is going to take any step forward this season. Perhaps rookie Steve Avila will help stabilize the unit. The Rams used the 36th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on the TCU product.
Defense
Aaron Donald’s 90.5 PFF grade suggests the 32-year-old is still playing at an elite level. The problem is that he’s the only guy on this defense that’s doing so — or even close. Los Angeles was solid against the run last season, which is part of having Donald around to clog up lanes. As long as he’s playing, Los Angeles should be a nightmare for opposing running backs. But that’s not going to mean much if the Rams don’t improve against the pass.
Last year, Los Angeles was just 24th in the league in pass DVOA. And the Rams didn’t do much of anything to address their secondary this offseason. In a passing league, that was a questionable decision by the front office. Perhaps Cobie Durant will take a big leap in his second year in the league. But the Rams have a lot invested in him and other players that weren’t exactly highly regarded as prospects. If that blind faith doesn’t end up paying dividends, this will be a bad team again.
Outlook
Stafford should make this team a lot more palatable to watch, and the group might hang around a little more than last year — the Rams were just 6-10-1 against the spread in 2022. However, it’s still hard to see a path to this team winning eight games. The Rams have a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule. When you combine that with a below-average roster, you’re probably looking at under 7.5 wins.
Recommendation: Under 7.5 wins.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers suffered a disappointing loss at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game last year, but Brock Purdy was physically unable to throw the football in that game — he was dealing with a UCL injury that later needed to be repaired. If the 49ers had a competent signal caller in that game, we might be talking about them a lot differently heading into the season. San Francisco absolutely had the talent to win a Super Bowl in 2022, and there aren’t many teams that are better built to win it all in 2023 on paper.
Offense
There’s a little uncertainty at the quarterback position for the 49ers, but what else is new there? Whether it’s Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold or Trey Lance, this San Francisco team has what it takes to be elite offensively. The 49ers were sixth in the league in offensive DVOA last season, and only five teams in the NFL averaged more points per game than them. The only key player that San Francisco lost offensively is Mike McGlinchey, who signed a five-year, $87.5 million contract with the Denver Broncos.
As long as the 49ers’ offensive line doesn’t fall apart with McGlinchey gone, there’s nothing stopping this from being a potent offense in 2023. And truth be told, it’s hard to have a bad offensive line with Trent Williams anchoring the left side. He was PFF’s highest-graded tackle in 2022, marking the third year in a row he earned that distinction.
Christian McCaffrey was a monster after arriving in the Bay Area last year, and he’ll only get better with a full offseason to prepare for life in this offense. Realistically, with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle around, defenses are going to be spread thin trying to find ways to contain such a talented offense.
Defense
Last season, the 49ers had a top-five defense in pass and rush DVOA, and they finished atop the league in overall defensive DVOA. Nick Bosa was an absolute monster for this San Francisco team last year, finishing with 18.5 sacks and a PFF grade of 90.6 (third amongst players at his position). With Bosa up front, Fred Warner manning the middle and a good group of defensive backs, led by corner Charvarius Ward, there’s no reason to believe this 49ers defense won’t be amongst the best in the league again.
San Francisco also brought in Javon Hargrave in the offseason. He should be a great fit along the defensive line this season. And it’ll be interesting to see if their low-cost swing on Clelin Ferrell pays off. He has a lot of talent and could do some damage in a limited role, especially with the talent around him.
No team in the league gave up fewer than the 16.3 points per game the 49ers gave up in 2022. Don’t be surprised if San Francisco leads the league in that regard again in 2023. The 49ers have one of the easiest schedules in the league.
Outlook
How can you not love the over at 10.5 wins? San Francisco opened the year as a favorite to win 16 of the 17 games on its schedule. The 49ers should cruise through its NFC West games while also handling its business against the rest of the league. Don’t be nervous about the quarterback situation. We have seen time and time again that San Francisco can win no matter who is under center.
Recommendation: Over 10.5 wins.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks shocked the world by going 9-8 and making the playoffs last season. Many people left this organization for dead after Seattle traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. But the Seahawks turned the keys over to Geno Smith, who threw for 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Smith made the Pro Bowl last season, which ultimately allowed the Seahawks to play at a much higher level than expected. Now, Seattle enters the 2023 season with legitimate expectations, and it’s definitely hard to doubt this team.
Offense
The Seahawks had a top-10 scoring offense last season, and things should get even better in 2023. Seattle’s passing game was rather explosive in Smith’s first full year under center. The team then added wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft. He has all the makings of a superstar, as he’s a speedy wideout with a real feel for running routes. When you add him to a group that already possesses DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, an argument can be made that Seattle has the best wide receivers in football.
Seattle should also be a force on the ground next season. Kenneth Walker III looks like he has an All-Pro future, as he rushed for 1,050 yards with nine touchdowns as a rookie. And Walker did that with a mediocre offensive line. But that group should be a bit better next season, as the team essentially kept the same group intact. That continuity, combined with the addition of Evan Brown, should help Walker.
The productivity of this offense will essentially come down to whether Smith’s 2022 season was a flash in the pan. But I tend to believe the 32-year-old is legit. And he should be even better in 2023, as the Seahawks put a lot of faith in him by giving him a big contract. That should help Smith’s confidence quite a bit.
Defense
Seattle’s defense was a nightmare last season, but things are looking up after the offseason. The Seahawks brought in quite a bit of talent on that side of the ball, with Bobby Wagner and Devon Witherspoon being the two biggest additions.
Wagner was the top-graded PFF linebacker in 2022, while Witherspoon was the fifth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Many viewed Witherspoon as the top corner in the class, so he should be a big boost to a secondary in desperate need of a shutdown option.
It also shouldn’t surprise anybody if Devin Bush puts things together in Seattle. He hasn’t lived up to expectations since being picked 10th in the 2019 NFL Draft, but the talent is there. Bush is now with an organization with a proven track record of developing players.
Outlook
Backing Seattle to win over 8.5 games is one of my favorite picks heading into the season, even if you have to lay some juice on this. Pete Carroll has won at least nine games in 10 of his last 11 seasons as the Seahawks head coach. And this year’s team looks very strong on paper. When you combine that with a reasonable schedule and one of the better home-field advantages in football, the Seahawks should finish the year over .500.
Recommendation: Over 8.5 wins.
