NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Green Bay at San Francisco (-9.5; 50.5)
Heading into Christmas weekend, the Packers were 6-8 and just about to head home for the winter. Then, Green Bay won its last three and earned the final spot in the NFC Playoffs. Last week, they dominated Dallas as touchdown underdogs courtesy of two brutal Dak Prescott interceptions and Jordan Love continuing to play at an elite level. Love has a 21 to 1 TD to INT ratio over his last nine starts. However, this could be where his regression comes.
Sometimes, when a #1 seed has a bye, it is out of sight and out of mind, and recency bias can come into play. Green Bay certainly looks like a force on offense with Love’s stellar play and Aaron Jones back to full health in the backfield. The Packers will need to be on their game, though, with Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw returning for the Niners’ defense.
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The 49ers were the only team during the 2023 regular season to be favored in all 17 of their games, and they were favored in all of those games for a reason, having ranked No. 1 in Offense DVOA and No. 4 defensively.
Dallas’s run game was mid-pack (No. 16 DVOA) at best this season, and they could not run the ball due to falling behind 27-0 so early. San Francisco’s running game is a different story leading the league in Rush EPA and being No. 2 in Rush Offense DVOA. Green Bay’s rush defense is No. 26 in DVOA.
With the 49ers likely to be able to run the ball on the Packers, that should also open up the middle of the field where Kyle Shanahan and his No. 1 offense live against a Joe Barry defense that struggles to cover over the middle. Green Bay’s offense is likely to be a different story, having to play catch-up against San Francisco.
Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 ATS in his career as a playoff favorite, with an average winning margin of 15 points per game.
Bet: 49ers -9.5
