Chiefs vs. Bills Divisional Round odds and predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins played in bitter, historic cold at Arrowhead Stadium in a game where one team seemed to be okay with being there and the other one did not. The Buffalo Bills had to wait a day to dispose of the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to a lake-effect snow event in Western New York in a game that looked like it would be a blowout, but wound up being something of a war of attrition as defenders dropped left and right for the AFC East champs.
Chalk held up in the AFC, as seeds 1, 2, 3, and 4 all moved on, leaving us with a 2 vs. 3 matchup here. The forecast is clear for this week and the sun is expected to be shining, so we should get a game decided by the players and not by Old Man Winter and Mother Nature.
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How To Watch Chiefs vs. Bills
Date: Sunday, January 21
Time: 6:30 pm ET
Channel: CBS
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
If you’re into such things, this is a double-revenge game for the Bills, who lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game during the COVID postseason and then again in the Divisional Round in the 2021 playoffs. That was the game where the Chiefs went 44 yards in 13 seconds to set up Harrison Butker’s game-tying 49-yard field goal. KC won the coin toss in overtime and went right downfield for the win. Both of those games were in Missouri. This one will not be.
Over those two games, the Bills combined for 991 yards of offense, but came out on the wrong side anyway. Taking care of the football is a priority in every game, but especially in this one, as the Bills turned it over 28 times during the regular season, but had 30 takeaways to manage a positive turnover differential. The Chiefs turned it over 28 times and only had 17 takeaways. You don’t find many playoff teams with a -11 TO margin, but Kansas City’s defense really stiffened up, finishing second in percentage of opponents’ drives ending in points and third in points per drive allowed.
Given that the Bills lost two enormous parts of their defense in Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White earlier in the season, their defensive performance has been impressive. They finished the regular season seventh in points per drive allowed and had a fine performance against the Steelers in the Wild-Card Round. Buffalo’s run defense was porous, as they ranked 28th in yards per carry allowed, but the pass defense ranked in the top 10 in virtually every key category.
While the weather isn’t a story, injuries are, at least for the Bills. As mentioned, they’ve been playing without Milano and White, but others have been lost along the way. LB Terrel Bernard and CB Taron Johnson left the game against Pittsburgh, with Bernard suffering a badly sprained ankle and Johnson checked for a concussion. LB Tyrel Dodson was out with a shoulder injury, so the Bills back seven is a M*A*S*H unit heading into this one on a short week.
Even though Isiah Pacheco has had some moments, the Chiefs finished the regular season 18th in Rush EPA and 26th in Rushing Success rate. That means KC’s success in this game is tied to Patrick Mahomes, as well as Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Reliable pass-catchers have been few and far between for Mahomes, which has been part of the reason he’s turned the ball over so much. Rice had at least nine targets in five of the last six regular season games he played and 12 targets in the Wild-Card win over Miami.
Oh, yeah, and a factoid you’ll read in every preview and hear on every show this week, this is the first-ever true road game for Mahomes in the NFL Playoffs. It will be his 16th playoff start. He did start Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay during the COVID season with a smaller crowd full of first responders, but this will be a different beast.
The underappreciated unit in this game may very well be the Chiefs defense. They finished sixth in EPA/play during the regular season, including the third-best unit by Dropback EPA and second-best by Dropback Success Rate. They didn’t force a lot of turnovers, but finished as a top-10 unit on third down and also in the red zone. Including the playoff game against Miami, the Chiefs allowed more than 21 points just twice and once time came against the Broncos in a 24-9 loss where they turned the ball over five times and only allowed 240 yards.
This is a really tricky handicap. Buffalo’s defensive injuries stand out in a big way, but Allen does a lot of special things and he becomes more of a running threat in the playoffs. The injuries are a lot to overlook, so I lean slightly with the Chiefs and the Over, but you’ll be able to find stronger opinions with VSiN Pro Picks at a Glance and with our shows throughout the week.
Leans: Chiefs +2.5, Over 45.5
Look for some player props to be added as those lines get posted throughout the week.
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Chiefs vs. Bills!
