NFL First TD Scorer
Week 5 has arrived and a new set of opportunities to bet into the First Touchdown Scorer market are here. It has been a really interesting series in a variety of ways so far and I’ve enjoyed taking this weekly column from our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak and running with it.
We’re not hearing quite as much about scoring and quarterback play around the league after the last couple of weeks. Like I’ve been saying, it takes time for offenses to get going and they’ve gotten going over the last two weeks, especially in the red zone. Over the first three weeks, teams were only cashing in at 46.7% inside the 20 and that was after a 61.6% Week 3 showing. Now, teams are up to 55.25% collectively in the scoring areas, which is on par with last season’s performance.
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In Week 4, teams went from 51.7% for the season (154/298) to that 55.25% mark (221/400), so we had 102 red-zone trips and 67 successes. That is likely one of the best weeks that you will see based on the Pro-Football-Reference data. Now the onus is on defenses to adjust.
I’ve also been tracking the First Touchdown Scorer distribution by position. Here are the year-to-date totals and last week’s numbers.
QB: 11 (2)
RB: 47 (12)
WR: 51 (11)
TE: 7 (3)
D/ST: 3 (2)
No TD: 9 (2)
Kyren Williams has four team-first TDs, but none of them are the first of the game. Alexander Mattison and Marvin Harrison Jr. have three, with two of Harrison’s and one of Mattison’s as the game’s first.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Ravens | 4/4 (100%) |
| Vikings | 4/4 (100%) |
| Bengals | 3/4 (75%) |
| Browns | 3/4 (75%) |
| Bucs | 3/4 (75%) |
| Cardinals | 3/4 (75%) |
| Chargers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Colts | 3/4 (75%) |
| Eagles | 3/4 (75%) |
| Falcons | 3/4 (75%) |
| Lions | 3/4 (75%) |
| Titans | 3/4 (75%) |
| 49ers | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bills | 2/4 (50%) |
| Broncos | 2/4 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 2/4 (50%) |
| Jaguars | 2/4 (50%) |
| Packers | 2/4 (50%) |
| Patriots | 2/4 (50%) |
| Saints | 2/4 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 2/4 (50%) |
| Bears | 1/4 (25%) |
| Giants | 1/4 (25%) |
| Jets | 1/4 (25%) |
| Panthers | 1/4 (25%) |
| Raiders | 1/4 (25%) |
| Steelers | 1/4 (25%) |
| Texans | 1/4 (25%) |
| Chiefs | 0/4 (0%) |
| Commanders | 0/4 (0%) |
| Dolphins | 0/4 (0%) |
| Rams | 0/4 (0%) |
The Ravens and Vikings are the only team to score the first touchdown in every game this season. The Chiefs, Commanders, Dolphins, and Rams are the only teams to have not scored the game’s first TD. The Eagles fell off of the “perfect” list and the Bears broke their goose egg.
Here are last year’s FTD results:
2023 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Ravens | 14/17 | 82.4 |
| 49ers | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Chiefs | 12/17 | 70.6 |
| Raiders | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Cowboys | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Packers | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Vikings | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Jaguars | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Eagles | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Lions | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Dolphins | 10/17 | 58.8 |
| Browns | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bears | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Falcons | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Rams | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bills | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Colts | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bengals | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Seahawks | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Texans | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Titans | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Steelers | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Patriots | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Buccaneers | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Commanders | 5/17 | 29.4 |
| Panthers | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Giants | 4/17 | 23.5 |
| Jets | 4/17 | 23.5 |
For what it’s worth, and because Steph’s TD Tracker covers 2022, here’s how that looked, with the playoffs included:
2022 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played | Success Rate |
| Browns | 13/17 | 76.5 |
| Eagles | 14/20 | 70.0 |
| Cowboys | 13/19 | 68.4 |
| Ravens | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Vikings | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Chargers | 12/18 | 66.7 |
| Lions | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Titans | 11/17 | 64.7 |
| Bengals | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| 49ers | 12/20 | 60.0 |
| Chiefs | 12/20 | 60.6 |
| Rams | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Panthers | 9/17 | 52.9 |
| Bills | 10/19 | 52.6 |
| Patriots | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Bears | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Saints | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Commanders | 8/17 | 47.1 |
| Jaguars | 8/19 | 42.1 |
| Falcons | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Raiders | 7/17 | 41.2 |
| Seahawks | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Buccaneers | 7/18 | 38.9 |
| Giants | 7/19 | 36.8 |
| Jets | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Steelers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Packers | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Broncos | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Texans | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Cardinals | 6/17 | 35.3 |
| Dolphins | 6/18 | 33.3 |
| Colts | 4/17 | 23.5 |
Let’s get to the Week 5 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Also, I’ll be listing just the 2024 numbers in the matchups, but considering the past when applicable.
NFL Week 4 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Buccaneers (75%) at Falcons (75%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Jets (25%) vs. Vikings (100%) (London) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Panthers (25%) at Bears (25%) – 1 p.m. ET
Ravens (100%) at Bengals (75%)
Dolphins (0%) at Patriots (50%)
Browns (75%) at Commanders (0%)
Raiders (25%) at Broncos (50%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Cardinals (75%) at 49ers (50%)
Packers (50%) at Rams (0%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Giants (25%) at Seahawks (50%)
Cowboys (50%) at Steelers (25%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Saints (50%) at Chiefs (0%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
BYE: Lions (75%), Titans (75%), Eagles (100%), Chargers (75%)
NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones +500, Jordan Addison +1300
Fingers crossed, but I’m bypassing Justin Jefferson in hopes of getting the bigger shot to come through in Addison. He played 66% of the offensive snaps last week in his return after missing a couple of weeks. He had a receiving score and a rushing score in the game and his receiving TD started the scoring from 29 yards out. Jefferson should be matched up with Sauce Gardner here, so that fuels my desire to take a shot on Addison.
Jones has been a touch and target monster in the red zone. He has 12 carries and seven receptions on nine targets. He’s only got two touchdowns to this point, but Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips are of the belief that running in the red zone is the best time to do it and also that the running back in the flat can be a mismatch. I’ll take a shot at both and hope the Vikings keep their perfect record intact.
Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard +700, Xavier Legette +1400
The Panthers are 1/2 in the first TD department since Andy Dalton took over. Not only that, but they marched down the field on Cincinnati last week before getting stuffed at the 1-yard-line on three consecutive plays to turn it over on downs. Dave Canales has had a great script for The Red Rifle thus far.
Let’s start with Legette, who had an 87% snap share last week, his biggest of the season by a large margin. He hadn’t played at least 60% of the snaps in a game to that point. He also caught his first NFL touchdown and had 10 targets. DIontae Johnson leads the way with nine of the team’s 13 red-zone targets, but Legette is on the field more now and I like his size in the red zone.
Hubbard had four carries on that aforementioned first drive into the red zone last week and now has nine attempts and two targets on the season. He has two first team TDs, both coming in the last two weeks.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +500, Dontayvion Wicks +1000
The Packers have Jordan Love back and he looked increasingly comfortable as last week’s game went along against the Vikings. Sure, he was facing some fairly passive coverage as Minnesota protected a lead, but he got a lot of reps and threw the ball a ton.
The Rams have not scored first in any of their four games and even gave the Bears their first, first TD of the season. In fact, the Rams still haven’t scored a first-quarter touchdown and only have one first-half offensive TD this season.
Jacobs has 12 carries and two targets in the red zone so far for the Packers. Love’s presence may also help soften up the middle of the defense. Wicks leads the team with four red-zone targets and already has three red-zone TDs. Tucker Kraft might be the long shot option at +1600, as he, too, has four red-zone targets.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
