NFL First TD Scorer
We have a week in the middle of the season with zero teams on a bye, so all 32 teams take the field and that means 16 games to pick from in the First Touchdown Scorer market. As I’ve mentioned before, while the purpose of the Tracker and the analysis is to try and hit that prop bet, this also has important application for things like first quarter and first-half betting, not to mention potential live betting opportunities that may arise.
As we head into Week 8, teams have a 55.9% success rate in the red zone. That is actually higher than last season’s 54.9%, despite a couple of awful weeks to start the season. Business has picked up on the scoring front for a while following all those knee-jerk reactions from early September. Funny how that works.
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Along with tracking the first scorer, I’ve also been doing a running count by position. Here are the year-to-date totals and last week’s numbers for First TD Scorer by position.
QB: 16 (1)
RB: 79 (15)
WR: 80 (6)
TE: 15 (3)
D/ST: 11 (2)
No TD: 13 (3)
After there were 14 WR to score first last week, the script flipped between RB and WR, as 15 RB found paydirt to open the touchdown scoring for their respective teams. We also had three teams fail to score a touchdown.
Kyren Williams scored first for the Rams again, but actually opened the scoring, so he cashed for anybody who took him. He has six first team TDs. Derrick Henry (4), Mike Evans (3), David Montgomery (3), Alexander Mattison (2), Chuba Hubbard (1), and Brian Robinson Jr. (1) all have four first team TDs and the number in parentheses is how many times they’ve been the first TD scorer of the game.
All three of Saquon Barkley’s first team TDs have made him the first TD scorer. James Cook, Chris Godwin, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are 3/2 guys, but Godwin’s season is now over.
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results thus far in 2024:
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Team | FTD/Games Played |
| Vikings | 6/6 (100%) |
| Ravens | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Eagles | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Bengals | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Colts | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Packers | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Bucs | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Cardinals | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Chargers | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Lions | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Titans | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Patriots | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Seahawks | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| 49ers | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Bills | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Broncos | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Browns | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Jets | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Panthers | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Raiders | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Texans | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Bears | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Chiefs | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Cowboys | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Jaguars | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Saints | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Steelers | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Dolphins | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Rams | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Giants | 1/7 (14.3%) |
The Vikings are the only team with a clean sheet now, as the Ravens failed to get the first TD. The Dolphins and Rams also scored first for the first time this season, so we no longer have any teams with a zero in that department.
Check out the Tracker for some more goodies, including the rates for teams scoring on their opening drives this season.
Let’s get to the Week 8 action. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Also, I’ll be listing just the 2024 numbers in the matchups, but considering the past when applicable.
NFL Week 8 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2024
Vikings (100%) at Rams (16.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Eagles (83.3%) at Bengals (71.4%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Ravens (85.7%) at Browns (42.9%)
Titans (66.7%) at Lions (66.7%)
Cardinals (71.4%) at Dolphins (16.7%)
Jets (42.9%) at Patriots (57.1%)
Falcons (57.1%) at Buccaneers (71.4%)
Packers (71.4%) at Jaguars (28.6%)
Colts (71.4%) at Texans (42.9%)
Saints (28.6%) at Chargers (66.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Bills (42.9%) at Seahawks (57.1%)
Panthers (42.9%) at Broncos (42.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Chiefs (33.3%) at Raiders (42.9%)
Bears (33.3%) at Commanders (28.6%)
Cowboys (33.3%) at 49ers (42.9%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants (14.3%) at Steelers (28.6%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well. Side note, I’m leaving the Cardinals out because of Tua’s return for the Dolphins.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones +500, Justin Jefferson +650
These are not sexy prices in this market, but we have a huge mismatch on Thursday night based on the year-to-date FTD performance stats for these two teams. The Rams are getting Cooper Kupp back and he obviously adds a different dynamic to the offense, but Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips have been cooking on offense this season and especially early in games. O’Connell is from the Sean McVay coaching tree, so I have to think he’s very much aware of the weaknesses he can leverage in the defensive scheme.
Both Jones and Jefferson have two FTDs. Jefferson hasn’t had one since Week 4. It is worth noting that the Rams have given up 17 TD this season and only six have been from running backs. So, that does concern me a bit with Jones, however, Josh Jacobs did score the first TD against them a few weeks back.
This is more of a gut feel/narrative thing, but it does seem to me like Jefferson has a big game here in the standalone spotlight when all the talk will be about Kupp coming back. Regardless, I expect the Vikings to stay perfect on the season and hopefully we’ve got one of the right players.
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry +330, Lamar Jackson +1000
It seems dumb to leave Henry off if you want to take a Raven, given that he’s scored the team’s first TD four times and three of them have been the first touchdown of the game, even if the price is “meh”. The Browns could get an injection of energy from Jameis Winston with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson out, but he played a little last week and that was all that he has played this season.
So, I would certainly expect Baltimore, a team that has done masterful work in this department this season and in the two previous years tracked by Stephanie Kamerschak, to score first. Jackson has one first TD scorer accolade to his name this season and it came back in Week 3 against Dallas.
It seems fitting, right? He faced an elite pass rusher in Micah Parsons in that game and his legs were required. He’s facing an elite pass rusher here in Myles Garrett. Small sample size data point, but I’ll take my chances with it.
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins +400, Will Dissly +1300
We’ve got several mismatches on paper this week, so let’s look at the Chargers here against the Saints. Nine of the 14 touchdowns given up by the Saints defense have been runs. They are 31st in yards per carry. So, I have to think that Dobbins winds up with a nice game, a lot of touches, and a good chance of finding the end zone.
Dissly has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he’s had his two highest snap shares of the season at 67% and 73% in the last two weeks, racking up 16 targets and 12 receptions. He has two targets and one catch in the red zone this season. He’s been used a ton, more than he’s ever been used in his career, and I think he’s worth the 13/1 shot given the increased volume of looks.
Green Bay Packers: Tucker Kraft +1200, Romeo Doubs +1200
I’ll take a shot on a couple of Packer pass-catchers here. Red-zone targets have been nicely spread around since Week 4 when Jordan Love returned from his MCL injury. Dontayvion Wicks actually has five targets to lead all receivers. Doubs has four. Jayden Reed has three. Christian Watson only has one.
Kraft also has four and he’s caught all four of them, accounting for three touchdowns. He actually has four TD in four games since Love came back. The Jaguars are tied for the league lead in TE touchdowns allowed with four. So, I’ll take a shot with Kraft and also landed on Doubs as the WR. He’s had 22 targets and 15 catches since Love returned and he even missed a game.
Wicks has 29 targets in that span, so I don’t mind looking at him either and the price is a tad better at +1500, but Kraft and Doubs are the official suggestions from me this week. (Packers update 10/25, 9 a.m. PT)
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article the last two seasons and the tracker.
