NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
I’ll be honest. Week 2 wasn’t great for my First Touchdown betting system. If you are new to my articles, I narrow it down to the better FTD (first touchdown) team and then find trends within that team. Since we only had one week of 2023 data in my tracker, I still used 2022’s trends to make picks for who would score the first touchdown, and the results were just okay.
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The better team based on 2022’s FTD% went 6-10 in Week 2. I picked three players who scored first for their team in my official bets (follow me on X to see who I bet each week: @billzinmepocket) but only one of them was the first of the game. So, as the rapper Big Sean says, “last night took an L, but tonight I bounce back”, and that’s just what I plan to do.
Let’s see who I’m happy with and who I’m mad at right now…
Friends
Ravens RBs: As I mentioned last week, the Ravens LOVE to score first and to do it with their running backs. J.K. Dobbins’ injury proved to be a non-factor for us FTD bettors, as they moved right on to Gus Edwards. He was +1300 at DraftKings, and I took advantage. Baltimore has now scored first with an RB in 16 of their last 20 games. Ground Game Gods.
Repeat Players: This week, five teams scored their first touchdown with the same player as they did in Week 1. The Dolphins (Raheem Mostert), Patriots (Hunter Henry), Rams (Kyren Williams), Jets (Garrett Wilson), and Colts (Anthony Richardson) all doubled up. They weren’t all game-firsts, but good to see potential trends developing.
Foes
The Browns: Woof. Last season’s top-FTD team did not come through for us in Week 2 and I am no longer part of the Dawg Pound. Not only did they let the Steelers defense score first, they lost one of their top scorers from last season in Nick Chubb for the rest of the season. Chubb’s gruesome knee injury is a significant blow to their run game and I’ll be staying away for a while.
The Cowboys: They keep scoring first, 2-for-2 on the season, but doing it with really random people! In the first game, Noah Igbinoghene took it to the house when Dallas blocked a Giants’ FG, the Cowboys D/ST was +3500 at DK. Then in Week 2, Jake Ferguson was the winner. The tight end had just 19 catches and two touchdowns last season, not exactly somebody I was looking for here. I’m sure once I start fading their stars, it’ll be showtime for Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb just to annoy me.
The Texans: How dare you let the Colts score first! Indy was last year’s worst FTD team and Houston let Anthony Richardson scamper into the end zone early in Week 2. Are the Texans now the auto-fade team? They’re 0-for-2 on the year and didn’t score a TD at all in Week 1.
Here’s a full list of this week’s games with their 2023 FTD% and their 2022 FTD% as it’s still probably worth including for another week or so.
Giants (0% / 36.8%) at 49ers (100% / 60.0%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Colts (50% / 23.5%) at Ravens (100% / 66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Broncos (50% / 35.3%) at Dolphins (50% / 33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Patriots (0% / 47.1%) at Jets (0% / 35.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Texans (0% / 35.3%) at Jaguars (50% / 42.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Titans (0% / 64.7%) at Browns (50% / 76.5%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Falcons (50% / 41.2%) at Lions (50% / 64.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Saints (100% / 47.1%) at Packers (100% / 35.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Bills (50% / 52.6%) at Commanders (50% / 47.1%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Chargers (100% / 66.7%) at Vikings (100% / 66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Panthers (0% / 52.9%) at Seahawks (50% / 38.9%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Bears (50% / 47.1%) at Chiefs (50% / 60.6%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Cowboys (100% / 68.4%) at Cardinals (50% / 35.3%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Steelers (50% / 35.3%) at Raiders (100% / 41.2%) – Sunday, 9:20 PM ET
Eagles (50% / 70.0%) at Buccaneers (0% / 38.9%) – Monday, 7:15 PM ET
Rams (50% / 52.9%) at Bengals (0% / 60.0%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Here are the games I like the most for Week 3:
Giants (0% / 36.8%) at 49ers (100% / 60.0%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
This is my favorite game of the week. The Giants offense has looked completely inept. They were shut out by the Cowboys in Week 1 and again for the first half of Week 2 until the Cardinals snapped out of it and remembered that they don’t want to win games. Even better for us FTD bettors is, so far the 49ers have stuck with their go-to guys from last season to extend the trend into 2023. I’ll be on Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk here.
Colts (50% / 23.5%) at Ravens (100% / 66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Yes, the Colts scored first last week and might have a new-and-improved offense but, we’ve got the Ravens running backs on the table here. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill both had at least 10 carries last week against the Bengals and I don’t see any reason to consider anybody else in this one. I’d love to see Hill get his shot this week just to continue the trend from last year where Baltimore almost always went to a running back first, but rarely the same one.
Cowboys (100% / 68.4%) at Cardinals (50% / 35.3%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Another game that looks easy but, I’m actually going to do something rare for me and bet on both sides despite the FTD success rates and the Cowboys dominating defense. Reason being, the Cardinals have actually played well in the first half of each game so far and I imagine all of their players’ odds will be longer than usual due to the matchup. For them, I’ll go with James Conner who scored first last week against the Giants, and Zach Ertz who leads the team in receptions so far. And for Dallas, I’m going to keep trying with Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. They get the ball too often not to score first for us soon.
Eagles (50% / 70.0%) at Buccaneers (0% / 38.9%) – Monday, 7:15 PM ET
Philly is the easy side here. DeVonta Smith has 178 yards through two games and shown he is a true deep threat. I’ll look his way, take A.J. Brown as insurance, and tack on Jalen Hurts as well since he scored first last week for them and was the Eagles’ top-FTD guy in 2022. The Bucs have looked like overachievers so far, I expect them to reveal their true selves this week against a truly elite team.
I’ll post my official picks on X (@billzinmepocket) each Sunday morning, so be sure to let me know who you’re picking, and let’s cash some tickets!
