NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
When Drake named his third studio album “Nothing Was the Same”, he was clearly not talking about first touchdowns, because those trends stay TRUE. Week 4’s games went 10-5-1 in predicting which team would find the end zone first. 2023 has a small sample size still, but in the 10 games with mismatches this past week, six of them followed the rule. That said, I think it might finally be time to ditch last year’s stats and go with the most recent info as we continue on. But, if you want to check out how each team did in 2022, check out my FTD (first touchdown) tracker.
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Before we look ahead, here are my takeaways from Week 4…
Week 5 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Perfect teams: Three teams remain perfect in the FTD department and we’ve got to keep riding them. The Ravens, Chargers, and 49ers haven’t let us down yet. Even better, Baltimore continued to run the ball for their first score, this time with Lamar Jackson (+600 at DraftKings). Ten of their first scores last season were via the run game, and all four of this year’s so far. For a team with a bird nickname, they show no interest in letting it fly.
East Rutherford teams: The Jets and Giants are the only two teams who have yet to score a touchdown first this season. These offenses have been so pitiful, it’s going to be easy to fade them each week. The Jets only have one first quarter touchdown so far, and the Giants haven’t scored a TD in the first half of any game this year. I’ll be all over the Dolphins and Broncos this week.
Kyren Williams: The second-year running back is the only player in the NFL with three TFTDs (team-first touchdowns) so far, two of which were the first of the game. He has six touchdowns on the season so clearly the Rams love feeding him in the red zone. He was still at a very bettable +650 this past week. I’ll be interested to see what his odds are this weekend against the Eagles.
Foes
The Cowboys’ stars: It’s like when you’re playing craps and nobody can hit a point to save their life. You finally decide to take a break from the pass line and then the next player throws a seven on their first throw. Beyond annoying. All season, I’ve been complaining about Dallas scoring first, but with players who are off our radar. So, in Week 4 I finally stopped betting on Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb, and lo-and-behold, Lamb gets in there. I’m going to stick to just betting them as the team to score first and leave it at that.
Teams who literally don’t score: Six teams didn’t score a touchdown at any point in Week 4. The Bengals, Browns, Patriots, Saints, Giants, and Steelers were all denied trips to the end zone. Even worse, the Bengals, Giants, and Titans already have MULTIPLE games with no tuddies. Yuck! I expected this from New York, who only scored first 36.8% of the time last season, but Cincy and Tennessee were two of the best teams in 2022. Those two have me “In My Feelings”.
Here’s all of Week 5’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Bears (25%) at Commanders (50%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Jaguars (50%) vs Bills (75%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (London)
Titans (25%) at Colts (25%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Texans (50%) at Falcons (25%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Panthers (50%) at Lions (75%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Ravens (100%) at Steelers (25%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Saints (75%) at Patriots (25%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Giants (0%) at Dolphins (50%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Eagles (50%) at Rams (50%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Bengals (25%) at Cardinals (50%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Jets (0%) at Broncos (50%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Chiefs (75%) at Vikings (50%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Cowboys (75%) at 49ers (100%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Packers (50%) at Raiders (75%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
These are the games that stand out to me as the most bettable:
Ravens (100%) at Steelers (25%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
I believe this is the easiest game of the week. Give me Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill. Last season the Ravens scored early with a variety of RBs, so this might finally be Hill’s turn. Plus, with Kenny Pickett’s injury, I don’t like Pittsburgh’s chances at all.
Giants (0%) at Dolphins (50%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
De’Von Achane came out of nowhere two weeks ago, and he does not appear to be a one-hit wonder. Adding another two touchdowns to his tally in Week 4, he’s Miami’s bell cow right now. I’ll take him and Braxton Berrios. The Jets have the ability to shut down Tyreek Hill, so I’ll look at the guy who could be left alone, scored last week, and will have some juicy odds.
Eagles (50%) at Rams (50%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
No mismatch here, but I still like this game. I’m going to have bets on both sides. Last week, I wrote about how D’Andre Swift has won the role of lead back and he scored first for the Eagles against the Commanders. I’ll go with him and A.J. Brown, who already has a whopping 414 receiving yards. With that much time with the ball in his hands, he’ll get in the end zone often. On the other side, I have to go with Kyren Williams, who like I mentioned above, already has three TFTDs. I’ll also have a ticket on Puka Nacua, who somehow only has one touchdown so far this season, despite having 39 receptions for 501 yards.
Jets (0%) at Broncos (50%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
I love this matchup because the Jets are unbettable and the Broncos first touchdown scorer has had the longest odds out there. Both of their FTDs have come via undrafted rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin. In Week 2, he cashed at +6000 and in Week 4 he cashed at +4000. I estimate his odds will still be long this week as he doesn’t get the ball much outside of when Denver’s ready to score. I also like Courtland Sutton who leads the team in receptions. Broncos, let’s ride!
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
