NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
Week 9 was another solid week for my first touchdown betting system. I’ve been tracking each and every first touchdown (FTD) scored this season and using that data to make sure I’m only betting on players from the more successful team. This data helped me cash two tickets this week, thanks to eight of the thirteen games featuring mismatches following the trend and having the better team score first. We’ll see if we can keep it up in Week 10, but first, my weekly friends and foes…
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Friends
Jakobi Meyers: All hail the 2023 FTD King! Meyers now has five TFTDs (team-first touchdowns), four of which were the first of the game. Despite all the chaos surrounding this team, Meyers has got to be in our accounts every week. And the icing on the cake? The sportsbooks have barely noticed how reliable’s been. At DraftKings, the shortest odds he’s had while scoring first was +950. Let’s hope it stays that way. (Whispering) keep it up, Jakobi.
Jake Ferguson: The Cowboys tight end was one of the first players that made me say WHO?! this season but he has now fully blossomed into a reliable FTD bet. He has three TDs on the season, all of which were Dallas’s first of the game. No other player on the team has more than one. Clearly, Ferguson is finding ways to get open early and score.
Foes
Good, but inconsistent: Two teams have really irritated me so far this season. Both the Chiefs and Eagles are scoring first at least two-thirds of the time, but really mixing it up when it comes to who they do it with. KC has scored first in seven of nine games, but have done so with six different players, none of which are Travis Kelce – why?! And Philly has scored their first touchdown with seven different players. Give me a trend you guys, please!
Sitting this one out: The Cardinals, Rams, Jets, and Seahawks all decided not to participate this past week. All four teams stayed out of the end zone completely and I’m going to keep them in mind as teams to fade regardless of opponent until they prove me wrong.
And of course, the newest addition to this weekly article: The WHO?! Spotlight: If you follow me on X, you’ll see that I actually cashed this ticket due to betting “any other player” at my book, but that doesn’t mean I have ever heard of Chargers wide receiver/special teams player Derius Davis! The rookie had just eight targets all season, so it’s not surprising his first career TD came via punt return. Congrats on being this week’s WHO?!, Derius. Now don’t do it again so I can go back to cashing Keenan Allen tickets.
Here are all of Week 10’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Panthers (37.5%) at Bears (44.4%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Colts (44.4%) vs Patriots (33.3%) – Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (Germany)
Packers (37.5%) at Steelers (25.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Saints (44.4%) at Vikings (66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Texans (62.5%) at Bengals (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Browns (50.0%) at Ravens (88.9%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Titans (25.0%) at Buccaneers (12.5%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
49ers (75.0%) at Jaguars (75.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Lions (62.5%) at Chargers (87.5%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Falcons (44.4%) at Cardinals (33.3%)– Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Commanders (44.4%) at Seahawks (62.5%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Giants (11.1%) at Cowboys (50.0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Jets (12.5%) at Raiders (77.8%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Broncos (62.5%) at Bills (55.6%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
These are the games that stand out to me as the most bettable:
Saints (44.4%) at Vikings (66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
This game has everything I like, a super-hot team, a super-cold team, and a clear favorite target. The Saints started the season strong, scoring first in four of five games, but have failed in every game since. The Vikings on the other hand, have scored first in four straight and don’t seem to care who’s playing QB, they just score. Minnesota’s main man has been Jordan Addison, who has four TFTDs and three game-firsts. I’ll take him, Alexander Mattison who finally made the tracker this past week, and my new favorite player, Josh Dobbs. How can you not root for that guy?!
Browns (50.0%) at Ravens (88.9%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
After taking a small break from rushing touchdowns to open games, the Ravens got back to business in Week 10. They’ve scored their first TD using their run game in seven of their nine games this season, doing so last week with Gus Edwards. They’ve given me no reason to stray from this trend that’s stayed true since I began tracking this data at the start of last season. I’ll go with Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson and the newbie, Keaton Mitchell, who had 138 yards on 9 carries last week. He’s a prime candidate for next week’s WHO?! Spotlight.
49ers (75.0%) at Jaguars (75.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Not a mismatch but, I still like this game. Reason being, we might actually get a good number on Christian McCaffrey thanks to the fact that Jacksonville is a strong opponent. CMC has five TFTDs for San Fran, including three in a row. Coming out of their BYE week, I expect him to have fresh legs and go for an NFL record of 18 straight games with a touchdown. On the other side, the Jaguars have Travis Etienne Jr. who hasn’t been too shabby either. He’s scored three FTDs in a row for Jacksonville. Let’s RUN up the score in this one.
Jets (12.5%) at Raiders (77.8%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Another beaut. Despite both offenses being terrible, we’ve got a significant FTD mismatch here. Don’t let the Jets 12.5% fool you, that lone FTD they have was against the worst team in this market, the Giants, in a game where they only managed one TD at all. They’re just awful at this! Meanwhile, the Raiders are very good. As I mentioned above, Jakobi Meyers will be on my betting slip until further notice. He has five TFTDs and four game-firsts. I’ll also be on Josh Jacobs who got a whopping 26 carries last week and found his way into the paint twice. Just Score First Baby!
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
