NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
The first touchdown market was long overdue for a longshot week, and Week 10 delivered. At DraftKings, eight of 14 FTDs (first touchdowns) came from players who cashed at +1200 or higher, and six of those were at least +2000. Unpredictable, much?!
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This resulted in only seven of thirteen matchups featuring FTD success rate mismatches following my system. If you aren’t familiar, I track all FTDs to figure out which team is better at scoring first, and if they go to a certain player or position more often. Clearly, it’s not a perfect science, but it has helped me cash tickets every single week of this NFL season so far.
Before diving into Week 11, here are the players I’m smiling and frowning at right now…
Week 11 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
Courtland Sutton: Saved by the Bronco! I was *this* close to having my first winless week in the FTD market, until Sutton made an incredible toe-dragging TD against Buffalo on Monday night. Not only that, he was a nice, juicy, +1200 at my book. For the guy who has more than twice as many touchdowns as the next guy on his team, I don’t understand those odds, but I’ll take ‘em! Denver is quietly rising in the FTD rankings, scoring first in six of their nine games. Broncos Country, let’s ride!?
The Jets & Giants: The two most fadeable teams continued to be terrible this past week. Gang Green hasn’t scored a touchdown, at all, since Week 8. That was their lone time scoring first this season against, you guessed it, Big Blue. The G-Men are the only team worse than the Jets here but only because they’ve played one more game. The Giants only scored first in Week 7 against the Commanders. Fade them forever!
Foes
The Raiders: Yes, they scored first as I predicted in last week’s article but, I also decided at the last minute to place a nice bet on behalf of myself and some of my VSiN control room staff on “no touchdown” at +5000. Everyone in on the bet would have won $100 and we got annoyingly close to cashing. The Raiders and the aforementioned terrible-at-touchdowns team from New York, waited until the fourth quarter to stop our sweat. The Jets did their part, why couldn’t you, Raiders?!
The Jaguars: Not only did they prevent our guy Christian McCaffrey from breaking the NFL record for consecutive games with a touchdown, they didn’t score any TDs at all this week! Jacksonville entered their BYE week with a beautiful streak of scoring first in five straight, the last three all being via Travis Etienne Jr. They’re dead to me.
The Saints: New Orleans started the season as one of the best FTD teams, scoring first in four of five games. But, since Week 6, they have failed to find the end zone first in any game. With Derek Carr in concussion protocol, and Jameis Winston still throwing touchdowns and interceptions at a 1:1 ratio, I’m staying away.
WHO?! Spotlight: As my friend Adam pointed out to me on X, we got this week’s WHO?! of Week 10 right away. Ihmir Smith-Marsette ran back a punt for the Panthers, which happened to be their only touchdown of their Thursday night matchup with the Bears. It was Smith-Marsette’s first touchdown since 2021, when he had a whopping 5 receptions the entire season. Plus, it was the Panthers first special teams TD of the season, so yah, not exactly on my radar. Carolina D/ST cashed at +3000 for you if you bet it at DraftKings.
Here are all of Week 11’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Bengals (55.6%) at Ravens (90.0%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Cowboys (55.6%) at Panthers (44.4%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Steelers (33.3%) at Browns (44.4%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Bears (40.0%) at Lions (66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Cardinals (30.0%) at Texans (55.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Raiders (80.0%) at Dolphins (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Giants (10.0%) at Commanders (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Chargers (77.8%) at Packers (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Titans (22.2%) at Jaguars (66.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Buccaneers (22.2%) at 49ers (77.8%) – Sunday, 1:05 PM ET
Jets (11.1%) at Bills (50.0%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Seahawks (55.6%) at Rams (44.4%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Vikings (70.0%) at Broncos (66.7%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Eagles (66.7%) at Chiefs (77.8%) – Monday, 8:20 PM ET
And here are the games I find to be the most bettable this week:
Cowboys (55.6%) at Panthers (44.4%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
The only way I can see the Panthers scoring first in this one is if they get a pick-six off of Dak Prescott. I’ll be going with the Cowboys here and their top receivers, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Lamb leads the team in touchdowns with five, and Ferguson is right behind him with four. These two have combined for six of their nine TFTDs (team-first touchdowns) this season. Not a bad portion to bet on.
Raiders (80.0%) at Dolphins (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Despite having the highest-scoring offense this season, the Dolphins have been awful at scoring a touchdown first, doing it just three times. Meanwhile, the Raiders offense is pitiful overall, but has scored first in eight of 10 games. Antonio Piece has got something going in this locker room and I’m along for the ride. I’ll go with Jakobi Meyers as I do just about every week. He has five TFTDs and four FTDs, the current king of this market. I’ll also go with Josh Jacobs who has really carried the load in their last two games, with at least 26 carries and 98 yards in each.
Giants (10.0%) at Commanders (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
I believe this will be the first time I’m placing a bet on the Commanders this season. They started off terrible, but have scored first in three straight now. Plus, the Giants are unbettable with Tommy DeVito at the helm. I like Brian Robinson Jr. who has scored first for them in back-to-back games, Terry McLaurin who has nearly twice as many receiving yards as the next guy, plus their D/ST. DeVito has three interceptions in two starts. I could easily see a pick-six, fumble-six, or punt return for Washington here.
Buccaneers (22.2%) at 49ers (77.8%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
After a two-game skid, the Niners returned to FTD glory last week. Brandon Aiyuk (+950 at DraftKings) scored first against the Jaguars. Plus, Deebo Samuel returned to the field, scoring for the first time since Week 3. I’ll be on both of them and of course, Christian McCaffrey. You know after being snubbed last week he’s going to be on an absolute mission. He’ll have short odds as always, but money is money and I want some.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
