NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
Week 14 was full of upsets for NFL bettors, survivor players and us first touchdown fans. All season I’ve been using a system to make educated bets in the FTD (first touchdown) market. I track every touchdown from every team, and use that to find mismatches in games based on their success rates. I then only target players from the better team. Almost every week this season, the system has correctly predicted the right team in the majority of games. No such luck this week, as only four of nine games with mismatches followed the rule. Even more frustrating, hardly any favorites scored. Ten of the fifteen winners this week had odds at +850 or longer. Sometimes, the trends are just not our friends.
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I’ll try to right the ship in a moment, but first, here are my friends and foes from Week 14:
Week 15 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker
Friends
The Packers: As I highlighted in last week’s article, Green Bay is not to be ignored in this market right now. They’ve now scored first in five of their last six games and thankfully, I capitalized on them this week when Jayden Reed scored his fourth FTD of the season. The only bad news is that the books have caught on to the rookie’s ability. His first three FTDs cashed between +1700 and +2000 at DraftKings. This one was just +750.
Chargers opponents: Los Angeles is officially the coldest FTD team out there. Yes, colder than the crummiest teams like the Jets, Saints, and Patriots that I’ve been writing about all season. The Chargers have now failed to score first in five straight, including one game without scoring a touchdown at all. I’ll be targeting their opponents from here on out, especially with Justin Herbert out for the season. His backup, Easton Stick, was less than impressive in relief last week against the Broncos, making them even easier to fade.
Foes
The Raiders-Vikings punt fest: I told myself I wasn’t going to bet this game. Both teams entered with 75% success rates, which according to my strategy, meant: stay away. But I caved, bet Jakobi Meyers and holy cow, what a disappointment! Neither team scored a touchdown (+7000 at DK), which makes it two weeks in a row with games like that. Not a good sign for us FTD bettors that strong teams just take weeks off.
Trend ruiners: The Cleveland Browns had scored the first touchdown in every other game since Week 6. This past week they ended that streak. I was all over the Jaguars in that game since they were the much better FTD team, but David Njoku cashed at +1100 and crushed my hopes of making money on Travis Etienne Jr. yet again. It was fun while it lasted.
WHO?! Spotlight: It’s not that we’ve never seen him before, it’s just that we essentially haven’t seen him at all this season. I’m talking about Jets WR Randall Cobb. The former Pro Bowler entered the game against the Texans with just three catches and no touchdowns this entire season. He hadn’t even caught a pass since October 1st. Wilder, his touchdown this week was his only catch on his only target. He was so far off people’s radar, his odds at DraftKings were +5000. His Jets have now scored the first touchdown in a whopping two games this season. If you had a ticket on Cobb, you had to have been throwing darts.
Here are all of Week 15’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Chargers (53.8%) at Raiders (69.2%) – Thursday, 5:15 PM ET
Vikings (69.2%) at Bengals (53.8%) – Saturday, 1 PM ET
Steelers (23.1%) at Colts (46.2%) – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Broncos (61.5%) at Lions (53.8%) – Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
Bears (46.2%) at Browns (53.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Buccaneers (30.8%) at Packers (53.8%) – Sun., 1 PM ET
Texans (46.2%) at Titans (30.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Jets (15.4%) at Dolphins (53.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Chiefs (61.5%) at Patriots (30.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Giants (23.1%) at Saints (38.5%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Falcons (53.8%) at Panthers (30.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Commanders (38.5%) at Rams (38.5%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
49ers (84.6%) at Cardinals (38.5%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Cowboys (61.5%) at Bills (46.2%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Ravens (92.3%) at Jaguars (69.2%) – Sun., 8:20 PM ET
Eagles (53.8%) at Seahawks (53.8%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
And here are the matchups I like best based on mismatches:
Chargers (53.8%) at Raiders (69.2%) – Thursday, 5:15 PM ET
The Chargers have issues everywhere right now, including the FTD market. As I mentioned above, they haven’t scored first in five straight games. Meanwhile, despite last week’s debacle, the Raiders are generally excellent here. Jakobi Meyers has six TFTDs (team-first touchdowns), tied for the most in the league. He has to be in my account. And despite having ten TDs, just three of Davante Adams’ have been the first of the game. He’s due for another one.
Buccaneers (30.8%) at Packers (53.8%) – Sun., 1 PM ET
The Packers LOVE throwing TFTDs to wide receivers. A WR has scored first for them in nine of thirteen games so far, including four of their last five. I’ll go with Jayden Reed again, and Romeo Doubs. Those two combine for eight of the nine Packers WR FTDs. Sling it, Jordan Love!
Falcons (53.8%) at Panthers (30.8%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
The Falcons offense may be mediocre, but their FTD skills have been strong as of late. They’ve scored the game’s first touchdown in three of the last four. The only hesitation I have is they really don’t have a clear top target. Nobody on the team has more than two FTDs. One of those players I do like though, is Bijan Robinson. He’s found the endzone five times in his last six games. I like his chances against the pathetic Panthers defense. And speaking of defense, I’ll also take the Atlanta D/ST and hope they can get a pick-six or fumble-six off of Bryce Young.
49ers (84.6%) at Cardinals (38.5%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
The 49ers are riding a five-game FTD streak and are just one game behind the Ravens when it comes to the best in the league. His odds are always short, but I have to bet Christian McCaffrey every time. He has six TFTDs this season and doesn’t have one in three straight games now. He’s overdue. I also like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel who have both been scoring machines lately.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
