NFL Hall of Fame Game Betting Preview:

While no one will ever be accused of comparing the NFL Hall-of-Fame game each August to the Super Bowl, the contest’s arrival each year always brings some much-anticipated betting enthusiasm.

As much as bettors don’t openly brag about it, most of us are excited about the game on Thursday that kicks off the NFL preseason, and most of us will in fact, bet it. With that spirit in mind, why not make your best effort to win that wager, aided by some historical game info that might tip the scales as to who wins and covers, Houston or Chicago, or which way the total winds up.

 

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You’ll see a chart below that details the results of the Hall-of-Fame Games since 2000, complete with betting lines and totals. These games are played at Canton, OH, on a neutral field, thus the reason for the small favorite lines on average. Plus, the teams’ representative starters typically play no more than a single offensive series, resulting in lower totals.

Oddsmakers have installed Chicago as a 2-point favorite with a total of 32.5 for the contest. Those are very typical numbers for this game.

Interestingly, over the last 24 years, Chicago has been in this game twice, going 1-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS, while the Texans have only appeared once, losing to the Giants 34-17 in 2002. If it matters, there hasn’t been a HOF game decided by that big of a figure since.

Below the chart, you’ll find some of my observations regarding the overall results and the betting implications.

  • Last year’s upset win by the Browns over the Jets extended a strong run by underdogs. Since 2013, they are on a 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS surge. Prior to that, favorites had been on a 6-1-2 ATS run.
  • The last two Hall-of-Fame games pitted AFC teams against one another. Prior to that, in three AFC-NFC matchups, AFC teams went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. The last NFC team to beat an AFC team in this game was Minnesota, who edged Pittsburgh 14-3 in 2015.
  • The team that has led the HOF game at halftime has gone just 2-3-1 over the last six contests. Depth is as important as any other factor, particularly at the quarterback position.
  • This is a game that is usually assumed to be an Under wager, despite the extremely low total. That said, Overs have been the winning totals wager in back-to-back years, following up a nine-game stretch in which Under was 7-2.
  • In the seven HOF games since 2015, the line has moved off the opening number, and it has gone towards the favorite six times. That team is just 2-3-1 ATS in that span. Furthermore, the HOF game seems to be becoming a game in which the books take from the bettors, as those following line moves would be just 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 opportunities. Most locales had Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite out of the gate, and the line has since moved to 2. Thus, it would appear the betting public is backing the Bears here.
  • Bettors have not been sharp lately when moving totals in HOF games either, going 2-6 in the last eight times the total moved prior to kickoff. The 2024 total has moved towards the Over (31.5 to 32.5), perhaps indicating that savvy bettors should opt for an Under.

Steve’s thoughts on the 2024 game: The Bears are being very coy about how much time Caleb Williams may see on Thursday, if any. The Bears’ preseason QB depth chart lists Williams-Tyson Bagent-Brett Rypien-Austin Reed. Bagent started four games a year ago and while he produced some exciting plays on the field, his TD-Int ratio wound up just 3-6. Rypien has started four games over four seasons, while Reed is another rookie who produced some big numbers at Western Kentucky.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans’s quarterback depth chart is far more experienced than that of the Bears. Naturally, Stroud is not expected to play, but he is followed by Davis Mills (26 career starts), Case Keenum (66), and Tim Boyle (20). In other words, all four Texans’ quarterbacks boast more career starts than the combined total of the four Bears’ options.

If you’re interested in how each of these franchises looks at the preseason, consider that Chicago is on a 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS run over the last three seasons of exhibition games, while Houston is even a bit better at 7-2 SU and ATS in that same span.

When handicapping this game each year, I like to look at two specific factors: line placement by oddsmakers and quarterback rotation depth. Regarding the latter, it is a very strong edge to the Texans. In terms of the line placement, oddsmakers are trying to tell us that Chicago is either the better team or the more motivated team. In either case, I’m not buying it. My preseason power ratings show Houston with a 20 and Chicago with a 19.5. Even with deducting 1.5 to 2 points for Stroud not being expected to play, I can’t stretch the line to Chicago -2. Let’s give a lean to the Texans in this one as the dog with a probable Under, as it seems unlikely that this group of QBs is going to muster up a whole lot of offense for Chicago.

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