Lions vs. 49ers Conference Championship odds and predictions
The first Super Bowl was played in 1967. The Detroit Lions went into this postseason with one playoff win since 1957. Two playoff wins this time around mean a trip to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. The Lions actually won the 1957 Championship and beat San Francisco on the road in the Division Round to set up a title game against the Cleveland Browns.
While that is likely nothing more than an interesting footnote as it pertains to this game, surely Lions fans can’t help but get a little romantic about the past and the possibilities in play here. In order to make history and play in the Super Bowl for the first time, the Lions will have to overcome fairly long odds as a touchdown underdog.
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Meanwhile, the 49ers will simply have to hold serve at Levi’s Stadium to end a two-year streak of losing in this game to return to the bright lines and the big stage for the first time since the collapse of Super Bowl LIV.
MORE: Check out our Conference Championship betting hub for all of this week’s best bets and content
How To Watch Lions vs. 49ers
Date: Sunday, January 28
Time: 6:30 pm ET
Channel: FOX
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 50)
Most sportsbooks had the 49ers -6.5 on Sunday night and into Monday morning, but some influential money hit the board to push nearly every shop out to -7 by Monday afternoon. The total opened 51 most places and we’ll see where that goes throughout the week, as the Lions will play outside for the first time since Week 14, but the weather conditions are expected to be very nice in Santa Clara.
The 49ers opened in the -9 or -9.5 range against the Packers and eventually closed -10.5. They never threatened to cover the number in that game and barely won straight up, but late-week money was heavy enough and respected enough to keep pushing the line. Now that San Francisco has shaken off the rust of essentially back-to-back bye weeks after sitting most players of consequence in Week 18 and having the Wild-Card Weekend off, bettors may expect them to look a bit sharper.
The Lions added TE Zach Ertz this week for their game against San Francisco and this has been a 49ers back seven that has been vulnerable over the second half of the season. As elite as the 49ers offense has been, the defense did not have a dominant statistical profile, and even ranked near the middle of the pack in EPA/play from Week 10 through Week 18.
Using Ertz to spell Sam LaPorta, who had nine grabs on 11 targets against the Buccaneers, or go with some two tight end sets could lead to some success. The Lions could also use a third pass-catching option, as Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 23 of the 68 targets this postseason.
The Packers moved the ball very effectively on the majority of their drives during the Divisional Round, but left points on the board multiple times in the first half and also missed a field goal in the second half that turned into a game-winning touchdown drive for the 49ers. The Lions are 6-for-7 in the red zone in this postseason. The Packers were just 2-for-5 in the loss.
The weaker side of the ball throughout the season has been the Lions defense, so continued success in the red zone is key. The 49ers are expected to get Deebo Samuel back after he missed most of last week’s game and Christian McCaffrey battled some leg cramps and discomfort. Those two weapons are vital cogs for San Francisco and will test the Detroit defense, a group that finished 29th in TD% against in the red zone during the regular season.
Brock Purdy is undoubtedly the most scrutinized player going into this one, as he played a pretty poor game against Green Bay before the game-winning touchdown drive and was awful against Baltimore in a big litmus test late in the regular season. Pundits and talking heads are taking a lot of shots at him, but he can silence them here. The 49ers had the best red-zone offense in the regular season and could have that aforementioned advantage against the Lions red-zone defense.
My initial leans on this game are the 49ers -7 and the Over 51, but those are just very light leans. The weather looks good and Purdy has played well in good conditions. The Lions give up a lot of explosive pass plays and Purdy should be able to find those here.
Leans: 49ers -7; Over 51
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Lions vs. 49ers!
