NFL Player Prop Bets Week 5:

Another round of player props are posted and we have a lot of things to think about. Injuries are still a problem across the NFL and something to take into consideration. So, too, are the matchups, the game lines, and the expectations of how the game will play out so that you can anticipate the game state and how the play distribution may shake out.

Keeping all of that in mind, here are a few player props that I like for Week 5.

 

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Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5

Kyler Murray (ARI) Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

The game state might be there for Murray to go over this number, but the game state was there last week in the blowout loss to the Commanders and he only had 22 pass attempts. Maybe Drew Petzing and Jonathan Gannon opted not to really show anything with how the game got out of hand, but the Cardinals didn’t really seem to push the issue very much.

Here this week, the Cardinals face a 49ers team that ranks second in average drive time at 3:33 and second in plays per drive with 7.0. Outside of the big win over the Rams, the Cardinals have been under 300 yards of offense in their other three games. This has not been a particularly potent offense outside of the scripted drives in the first quarter.

My guess is that the 49ers dictate the pace of play and also have some long, sustained drives here, which will limit the number of chances Murray has to throw. He’s also been sacked 10 times and those can’t be pass attempts, including four sacks in two of the four games.

Zack Moss (CIN) Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Moss lost some ground last week in terms of playing time to Chase Brown. Moss had a 60% snap share, his lowest of the season. Brown had 15 carries and three targets on his 27 snaps. It sure looks as though the Bengals have isolated Brown as a guy who can help them in a lot of different ways.

I’m not surprised to see Moss losing some touches and some snaps. He only has 3.9 yards per carry on the season. Brown has 6.3 and has been a big part of Cincinnati’s good Rush EPA and Rushing Success Rate numbers. And now, it appears that he’s starting to get more looks.

The Ravens defense also ranks sixth in Rush EPA and first in Rushing Success Rate against, so I can’t help but think that when the Bengals do want to run, they’ll see what Brown can do for them.

Harrison Butker (KC) Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-130)

This one is a little bit chalky, but the Chiefs are now missing two extremely dangerous red-zone options in Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. Patrick Mahomes is a magic man and I’m sure that he’ll find ways to make things interesting inside the 20, but the Saints do come in as the best red-zone defense in the NFL this season.

New Orleans has held the opposition to a 22.2% success rate with scoring touchdowns inside the red zone. As it is, Kansas City is just 5-for-11 scoring TDs on the season and that was with Rice up until this point and Pacheco for the first couple of games.

If Butker gets chances, he should convert. He’s 8-for-9 on the season so far and over 89% for his career.

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