Player props for Jerome Ford, Josh Downs, Tutu Atwell
Weather is a major factor in Week 6, as most of the outdoor games in the NFL are going to have some adverse conditions for throwing the football. Remember that wind is the biggest consideration when it comes to Mother Nature. Rain and snow make everybody miserable, but the offensive players know where they’re supposed to be going and the defensive players aren’t so sure.
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As usual, weather, game state, and matchup are the three most important attributes when it comes to player props and there are some good bets on the board this weekend.
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(odds as of October 13, 3:00 p.m. PT)
Jerome Ford (CLE) Over 2.5 Receptions (+140)
The Browns have a really tall order this week, as they go up against the 49ers with PJ Walker at quarterback. Cleveland is now a double-digit underdog at home per some shops and running the football probably isn’t going to be a great option for most of the game. It is worth noting that the 49ers are only 19th in Rush EPA against and 26th in Rush Success Rate against, but they’re going to flood the box and make Walker beat them.
Ford actually has 10 receptions over the last three games and his snap share has risen in each game since the horrific Nick Chubb injury, as Ford had a 56% snap share in Week 3 and a 62% snap share in Week 4. The Browns did sign Kareem Hunt, but he hasn’t gotten involved all that much and I don’t think he will be here either. Ford has 13 targets with those 10 receptions in the last three games and I would anticipate that he gets looks here with Walker, as the Browns try to keep the offense simple. I also like Ford Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115).
Josh Downs (IND) Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Downs had a season-high six catches for 97 yards last week and he’s up to 33 targets on the season with 23 catches. Downs has had a much better rate of success with Gardner Minshew in the game as opposed to Anthony Richardson. He has a 25% target share with Minshew at QB and he averaged 5.19 yards of separation in last week’s game, so he was getting open and the Colts may look to use that to their advantage here.
Jacksonville also has a top-five rush defense this season by both EPA and Success Rate, so the Colts should be looking to throw the ball this week. In the Week 3 game against Baltimore that Minshew started, Downs was targeted 12 times with eight catches for 57 yards. He should be more of a factor this week and should honestly be more of a factor every week.
Tutu Atwell Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Van Jefferson was the odd man out for the Rams in terms of a trade, but Atwell was also an odd man out last week in the passing game. The Rams had 56 offensive snaps and 37 pass attempts and four sacks, so it was all about throwing while trailing against the Eagles throughout the contest. Atwell played 89% of the offensive snaps and had two catches for nine yards on five targets.
With Cooper Kupp back and the emergence of Puka Nacua, I just don’t see a lot of balls going towards Atwell. Tyler Higbee is still going to get his looks as well. But, the biggest reason is simply that the Rams are a touchdown favorite against the Cardinals and should be looking to salt the game away in the second half with more of Kyren Williams.
Even in Week 5, Atwell had five catches for 24 yards on nine targets. The early part of the season seems to have really inflated his stock. The books have caught on, but I think he’ll continue to be more of a decoy and less of a pass-catcher.
