NFL streaks provide some advantages for bettors

By
Steve Makinen
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NFL streaks provide some advantages for bettors

As I was feverishly preparing all of the data for the brand new NBA Analytics Report over the last few weeks and found some interesting and valuable information on how teams do on streaks, it occurred to me I hadn’t ever studied the subject for NFL teams, or at least hadn’t seen the data in several years. If you think about it, with a 17-game regular season schedule, a three-, four-, or even five-game streak of any sort has to be incredibly impactful for an NFL team, and the mindset or momentum that comes with it surely means something. Right? Well, that’s what I figured before setting out to uncover what different streaks of outright and ATS results, both wins and losses, mean in the grand scope of NFL betting.

 

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I can happily proclaim that I found an incredibly good bunch of nuggets that we, as bettors, can use going forward. And not only will I be sharing the results here, but I will also be adding these to our weekly NFL Analytics Reports going forward so that you won’t miss a single key game qualifying for any of the systems. In general, I can tell you that teams on extended losing streaks of either SU or ATS are typically sound wagers, presumably because oddsmakers side heavily against them. Also, teams on losing streaks tend to fare better on the road, while those on winning streaks are generally better at home. I’ll share more about those points in a bit as I reveal 15 NFL Streak Betting Systems that I developed using data from the last 20+ seasons.

You will see that I have also pre-qualified all of the NFL Streak Systems I have found for the Week 8 games.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 38-11 SU and 30-17-2 ATS (61.2%) run when favored in the next game as well.

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, this is an NFL trap scenario. A team is obviously not playing to its potential lately, but still, oddsmakers see enough to favor them again.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 86-18 SU and 69-35 ATS (66.3%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.

Steve’s thoughts: Upset wins can be very powerful for building momentum. Since that upset, the team is playing well and expecting to win.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 22-50 SU but 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) since 2007.

Steve’s thoughts: These are the types of systems that make NFL betting tough. Nobody wants to back a team that has lost five straight games against the number, and generally in convincing fashion.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 13-37 SU and 11-36-3 ATS (23.4%) in game #4 since 2003.

Steve’s thoughts: These teams may be covering, but they are not doing it convincingly. They are clearly due for a reversal of fortune.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 55-13 SU and 45-21-2 ATS (68.2%) in the next game when favored.

Steve’s thoughts: Winning close games in the NFL can often be the difference between having successful seasons or not. These types of victories can build momentum.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries.

Steve’s thoughts: Backing teams on the road that are struggling and, once again, playing a good team takes a lot of courage. Those who can stomach the wagers most often win.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-71 SU but 56-28 ATS (66.7%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.

Steve’s thoughts: Again…struggling big road underdogs are not the public’s favorite bet, but these stats suggest they should be.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 18-12 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in their last 30 tries.

Steve’s thoughts: ATS droughts don’t necessarily mean a team is playing poorly, perhaps just getting unlucky. Facing an inferior opponent can turn around the recent bad luck.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 18-59 SU but 48-27-2 ATS (64%) when playing as road dogs to non-divsional conference loss since 2003. 

Steve’s thoughts: I like to refer to “unfamiliarity” when describing non-divisional opponents. Favorites either aren’t prepared or don’t focus as highly for these lesser teams.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 19-22 SU but 26-13-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 41 games versus non-conference foes.

Steve’s thoughts: A change in opponent type and the unfamiliarity that a non-conference game offers can alter the luck of teams.

Qualifying plays for Week 8: ARIZONA (+9.5 vs. Baltimore), CAROLINA (+1 vs. Houston)

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 48-11 SU & 38-19-2 ATS since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.

Steve’s thoughts: Road favorites on lengthy winning streaks are most often the best teams in the league. When motivated further by taking on division opponents, their play tends to step up even more.

Qualifying plays for Week 8: KANSAS CITY (-7 vs. Denver)

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 45-31 SU but 26-47-3 ATS (35.6%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.

Steve’s thoughts: Regardless of who the oddsmakers are telling you is going to win, it doesn’t make sense to lay points with struggling teams in the NFL.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 11-64 SU and 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.

Steve’s thoughts: These are teams that are really struggling and are on really long losing streaks. However, double-digit lines are also really big in NFL standards. Most often, these road dogs can do just enough to get it done for bettors.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #14: NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football after losing at least their last five games outright have gone 6-12 SU but 14-4 ATS (77.8%) in their last 18 tries.

Steve’s thoughts: No athlete wants to be embarrassed on national TV. Even though these teams are struggling, they typically muster up the effort to compete in primetime.

 

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.

Steve’s thoughts: Little rest, little matter for these red-hot teams, as they are happy to get back to work quickly to extend their winning streaks.

Unlimited access to the weekly NFL Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.

 

 

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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