The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% R.O.I., Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs KC)

– Philadelphia is on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-72 SU but 56-29 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU) 

-Miami is 11-1 to the Under in the last 12 Primetime games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5)

Sam Darnold (MIN) is 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.8, Team average PF: 16.2
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at GB)

-Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have really struggled of late, going 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in their last 21, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 15 of the last 19 (78.9%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total in DAL-NYG (o/u at 45)

* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Buffalo-Baltimore series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5) 

  • – Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 78-64 SU but just 44-87-11 ATS, for 33.6%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 80-183 SU & 129-129-5 ATS (50%).
    System Match: FADE – ATLANTA (-2.5 vs NO)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic NFL betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 and ’23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Now, here are the NFL betting trend systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, PITTSBURGH, GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, BUFFALO, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS, JACKSONVILLE, GREEN BAY, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two less non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, TENNESSEE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) & 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, BUFFALO, TENNESSEE, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI, JACKSONVILLE, ARIZONA, LA CHARGERS, TENNESSEE, DETROIT

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2, last year it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – CIN-CAR, WAS-ARI, BUF-BAL, SEA-DET 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-IND, JAX-HOU, LAR-CHI, PHI-TB, NE-SF, CLE-LVR, TEN-MIA

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NYG, MIN-GB, CIN-CAR, WAS-ARI, BUF-BAL, SEA-DET

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-GB, BUF-BAL, SEA-DET

NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(+10)-SF, CIN-CAR(+4.5), TEN(+1)-MIA, SEA(+3.5)-DET)

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 153-171-9 ATS (47.2%). Road/Neutral games – 174-152-8 ATS (53.4%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE
FADE HOME TEAMS – CAROLINA

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 30-118 SU (20.3%) and 72-74-2 ATS (49.3%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND (+10 at SF)

– Ironically, its in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 239-237-2 SU & 239-226-13 ATS (51.4%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-123-6 ATS (47.7%), Conference games 123-119-4 ATS (50.8%), Non-conference games 92-81-7 ATS (52.6%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND
SLIGHT PLAY – TENNESSEE, SEATTLE 

– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 84-82-8 ATS, good for 50.6%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins and keeping them together after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 192-180-6 ATS (51.6%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 133-139-11 ATS (48.9%).
System Matches: PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE
FADE – CAROLINA, SEATTLE

Re-Tread Coach Systems

(Games this week: NO-ATL(-1.5), WAS(+3)-ARI, KC-LAC(+8))

– Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 78-113 ATS (40.8%). Road/Neutral games – 95-103 ATS (48%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

– Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 78-64 SU but just 44-87-11 ATS, for 33.6%! As dogs (or pick em), 80-183 SU and 129-129-5 ATS (50%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA

– Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 86-135-6 ATS (38.9%), while in weeks #11 & later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 69-75 ATS (47.9%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 103-139 ATS (42.6%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2024 include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road. 

(Games this week: LAR-CHI(-3), DEN(+7.5)-NYJ, WAS(+3)-ARI) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 171-305-2 SU (35.9%) and 224-248-6 ATS (47.5%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of late of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 109-106 ATS (50.7%) in home games but just 92-115 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU & 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 16 games, going 16-110 SU and 48-75-3 ATS (39%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
 Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 28-8 SU and 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright & ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 27-256 SU & 56-220-7 ATS (20.3%), as opposed to 220-141 SU & 255-96-9 ATS (72.6%) when topping that point benchmark. 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional & non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 42-51 SU but 54-39 ATS (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY – CHICAGO, DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 133 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 44-93 SU and 60-75-2 ATS (44.4%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets) and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: DEN-NYJ(-7.5), NO-ATL(-1.5))

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
 It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 41-26-1 Under the total (61.2%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER –NO-ATL, DEN-NYJ

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 114-67 SU & 96-74-11 ATS (56.5%).
System Matches: PLAY – ATLANTA, NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 79-62 SU but 79-60-2 ATS (56.8%).
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QBs have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 72-65 SU and 77-57-3 ATS (57.5%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Match: PLAY – ATLANTA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran quarterbacks have proven relatively trustworthy as big favorites at home with their new teams
Since 2004, veteran starting quarterbacks facing home chalk lines of 7.5 points or more have been quite successful, going 28-3 SU & 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%).
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
Alternatively to #6 above, NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 21-17 SU but 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in their last 38 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (*if they become a favorite at BAL, +2.5 currently*)

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-19-2 SU but 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in their last 29 tries.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU)

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 32-34 SU and 39-25-2 ATS (60.9%) in the last 66.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 at NYG)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 22-19 SU but 12-27-2 ATS (30.8%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL)

Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in their last 21, scoring just 14.5 PPG. In terms of totals, 15 of the last 19 (78.9%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45)

A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 16-15 SU but 11-20 ATS (35.5%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs DAL)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 16-18 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) record.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 at NYG)

Bad TNF Team Trends
NY Giants 0-7 SU slide
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 16-12 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) in their last 28 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-2.5 vs. BUF)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-19 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in their last 31, but those coming off a win are on a current 20-4 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) surge.
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-2.5 vs. BUF)

Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 11-8 SU but 4-15 ATS (21.1%) in their last 19 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO (+2.5 at BAL)

More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 13-23 SU and 15-21 ATS (41.7%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match: FADE BUFFALO (+2.5 at BAL) 

Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS wins since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at BAL)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 16-17 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) surge since 2019.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-1 vs. TEN), PLAY DETROIT (-4 vs. SEA)

Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 9-3 SU and ATS (75%) in their last 12 tries.
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+4 at DET)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 32-29 SU but just 21-38-2 ATS (35.6%) in the last 61 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-1 vs. TEN), FADE SEATTLE (+4 at DET) 

OVER the total MNF Team Trends
Tennessee 7-1 OVER last eight
System Match: PLAY OVER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Baltimore 24-11 SU and 22-12-1 ATS in the last 35
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-2.5 vs. BUF)

Buffalo 14-5 SU and 11-8 ATS primetime run
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at BAL)

Dallas 12-4 ATS in the last 16
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 at NYG)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

NY Giants 4-21 SU since last b2b wins (11-14 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6 vs. DAL)

OVER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Tennessee 13-7 Over in the last 20
System Match: PLAY OVER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends

Miami 11-1 to the Under
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TEN-MIA (o/u at 36.5)

Seattle 9-3 Under in the last 12
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SEA-DET (o/u at 46.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trends and systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 40-15 SU and 32-21-2 ATS (60.4%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7 vs. JAX)

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion then being favored in the latter games are 87-18 SU and 69-36 ATS (65.7%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (*if they become favored by 3 or more at IND, -1.5 currently)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-72 SU but 56-29 ATS (65.9%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 20-61 SU but 50-29-2 ATS (63.3%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 at MIA)

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last thre games outright have gone 53-33 SU but 33-50-3 ATS (39.8%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-4 at CAR)

The following systems and NFL betting trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-1 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs. KC)

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-17-2 ATS since 2015, 65.3%, +13.3 Units, 27.1% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs. KC) 

Pre-bye week system #5
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 25-18 SU and 28-13-2 ATS since 1996, 68.3%, +13.7 Units, 33.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 at MIA)

Pre-bye week system #6
Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-22 SU and 27-16 ATS since 1996, 62.8%, +9.4 Units, 21.9% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4 vs. SEA)

Pre-bye week system #8
Play against any teams heading into their BYE week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 40-7 SU and 32-14-1 ATS since 2008, 69.6%, +16.6 Units, 36.1% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+8 vs. KC) 

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Detroit Lions Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 9/30 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit is on 10-3 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games but did go Under last year
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 46.5)

Including last year, the Lions have only played two MNF pre-bye week games since 1995, going 2-0 SU and ATS
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-4 vs. SEA) 

Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye Week Game: 9/29 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are just 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 pre-bye week games
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (+8 vs. KC)

While bad overall in pre-bye week games lately, the Chargers are 9-3-1 ATS in that situation in their last 13 versus divisional foes
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+8 vs. KC)

Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Bye Week Game: 9/29 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles own an eight-game pre-bye week winning streak, both SU and ATS since 2016, and are 13-3 SU and ATS since 2008
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB)

Philadelphia is on a 12-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games as a favorite, allowing 16.7 PPG
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB)

Tennessee Titans Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 9/30 at Miami Dolphins

The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine pre-bye week road games, allowing 30+ points five times
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+1 at MIA)

Tennessee has gone 5-10 ATS in its last 15 pre-bye week contests overall
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+1 at MIA)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+4.1)
2. NY GIANTS +6 (+2.0)
3. CLEVELAND +2 (+1.5)
4. BUFFALO +2.5 (+1.3)
5. JACKSONVILLE +7 (+0.6) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -1 (+2.2)
2. DETROIT -4 (+1.3)
3. NY JETS -7.5 (+0.9)
4(tie). CINCINNATI -4 (+0.7)
SAN FRANCISCO -10 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +7.5 (+4.8)
2. NY GIANTS +6 (+4.7)
3. TENNESSEE +1 (+2.2)
4. NEW ENGLAND +10 (+1.6)
5. BUFFALO +2.5 (+1.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA -3.5 (+2.8)
2(tie). PITTSBURGH -1.5 (+2.3)
GREEN BAY -2.5 (+2.3)
4. ATLANTA -2.5 (+1.7)
5(tie). LAS VEGAS -2 (+1.2)
KANSAS CITY -7.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-LVR OVER 37 (+3.9)
2. PIT-IND OVER 39.5 (+2.1)
3. CIN-CAR OVER 47 (+1.1)
4. LAR-CHI OVER 41 (+0.4)
5. NO-ATL OVER 42 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KC-LAC UNDER 40 (-5.5)
2. SEA-DET UNDER 46.5 (-4.4)
3(tie). JAX-HOU UNDER 45.5 (-1.8)
BUF-BAL UNDER 46.5 (-1.8)
5(tie). DAL-NYG UNDER 45 (-0.7)
PHI-TB UNDER 44 (-0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE +7 (+3.1)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +1.5 (+2.1)
3. NY GIANTS +6 (+2.0)
4. LA RAMS +2.5 (+1.5)
5. CLEVELAND +2 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BALTIMORE -2.5 (+3.6)
2. MIAMI -1 (+3.0)
3. DETROIT -4 (+2.8)
4. GREEN BAY -2.5 (+2.2)
5. SAN FRANCISCO -10 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-LVR OVER 37 (+4.3)
2. BUF-BAL OVER 46.5 (+3.4)
3(tie). NO-ATL OVER 42 (+3.0)
NE-SF OVER 39.5 (+3.0)
5. MIN-GB OVER 43.5 (+2.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CIN-CAR UNDER 47 (-3.9)
2. WAS-ARI UNDER 50.5 (-2.6)
3. DAL-NYG UNDER 45 (-1.9)
4. KC-LAC UNDER 40 (-1.8)
5. PIT-IND UNDER 39.5 (-1.2)

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Jared Goff (DET) is 27-25 SU but 36-16 ATS (69.2%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.6, Team average PF: 23.8
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4 vs. SEA)

* Dak Prescott (DAL) is 31-8 SU and 28-11 ATS (71.8%) in divisional games. The average line was -4.3, Team average PF: 29.3
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-6 at NYG)

* Derek Carr (NO) is 21-30 SU & 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) vs. NFC foes. The average line was +0.5, Team average PF: 21.6
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 at ATL)

* Justin Fields (PIT) is 10-24 SU and 13-19-2 ATS (40.6%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.7, Team average PF: 19.3
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-1.5 at IND) 

* Sam Darnold (MIN) is 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.8, Team average PF: 16.2
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at GB) 

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 28-2 SU but 12-17-1 ATS (42.9%) in his L30 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.9, Team average PF: 28.3
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-8 at LAC)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ARIZONA is 22-28 ATS (44%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 16-28 ATS (36%) as a favorite since 2016
Systems Match: FADE ARIZONA (-3.5 vs. WAS) 

* ATLANTA is 17-32 ATS (34.7%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 31-55 ATS (36%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 vs. NO)

* BALTIMORE is 47-56 ATS (45.6%) as a favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-2.5 vs. BUF)

* BUFFALO is 35-26 ATS (57.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+2.5 at BAL) 

* CAROLINA is 14-26 ATS (35%) at home since 2019
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4 vs. CIN)

* CHICAGO is 18-30 ATS (37.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 28-40 ATS (41.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Systems Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2.5 vs. LAR)

* CINCINNATI is 50-29 ATS (63.3%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNAT (-4 at CAR) 

* DALLAS is 12-4 ATS (75%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 32-16 ATS (66.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS is 18-11 ATS (62.1%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 at NYG)

* DENVER is 93-58 UNDER the total (61.6%) since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-NYJ (o/u at 39.5) 

* DETROIT is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 37-16 ATS (69.8%) overall since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-4 vs. SEA) 

* GREEN BAY is 29-16 ATS (64.4%) at home since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 20-10 ATS (66.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs. MIN) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 24-39 ATS (38.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 33-22 UNDER the total (60%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+7 at HOU), also PLAY UNDER in JAX-HOU (o/u at 45.5) 

* KANSAS CITY is 10-14 ATS (41.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 53-34 ATS (60.9%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-8 at LAC) 

* LA CHARGERS are 32-48 ATS (40%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS are 14-13 ATS (51.9%) as an underdog since 2020
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA CHARGERS (+8 vs KC) 

* LA RAMS are 42-33 UNDER the total (56%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-CHI (o/u at 41) 

* LAS VEGAS is 29-43 ATS (40.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 14-20 ATS (41.2%) as a favorite since 2019
Systems Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (-2 vs. CLE)

* MIAMI is 57-28 ATS (67.1%) at home since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-1 vs. TEN)

* MINNESOTA is 20-24 ATS (45.5%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 50-38 OVER the total (56.8%) since 2019
Systems Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+2.5 at GB), also PLAY OVER in MIN-GB (o/u at 43.5) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+10 at SF)

* NEW ORLEANS is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 34-18 ATS (65.4%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 at ATL)

* NY GIANTS are 47-22 UNDER the total (68.1%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-NYG (o/u at 45) 

* NY JETS are 11-24 ATS (31.4%) when coming off SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 9-20 ATS (31%) as a favorite since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-7.5 vs. DEN)

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-27 ATS (41.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at TB) 

* PITTSBURGH is 20-27 ATS (42.6%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 95-61 UNDER the total (60.9%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-1.5 at IND), also PLAY UNDER in PIT-IND (o/u at 39.5)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 18-25 ATS (41.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-10 vs NE)

* SEATTLE is 37-48-1 ATS (43.5%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 32-21 ATS (60.4%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+4 at DET) 

* TAMPA BAY is 23-34 ATS (40.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 34-47 ATS (42%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs. PHI)

* TENNESSEE is 32-46 ATS (41%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+1 at MIA) 

* WASHINGTON is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-29 UNDER the total (57.4%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+3.5 at ARI), also PLAY UNDER in WAS-ARI (o/u at 50.5) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(101) DALLAS at (102) NY GIANTS
* DALLAS is on a 6-1 ATS run at NY Giants
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(287) BUFFALO at (288) BALTIMORE
* UNDER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the BUF-BAL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(271) CINCINNATI at (272) CAROLINA
* FAVORITES are on a 5-1-1 ATS run in the CIN-CAR series
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS

(283) CLEVELAND at (284) LAS VEGAS
* UNDERDOGS are on a 3-0-1 ATS run in the CLE-LVR series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(275) DENVER at (276) NY JETS
* OVER the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the DEN-NYJ series in New York
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(267) JACKSONVILLE at (268) HOUSTON
* UNDER the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the JAC-HOU rivalry in Houston
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(285) KANSAS CITY at (286) LA CHARGERS
* KANSAS CITY is on an 8-2 ATS run when visiting Chargers
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS

(273) LA RAMS at (274) CHICAGO
* HOME TEAMS are on 6-1 ATS run in LAR-CHI h2h series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(269) MINNESOTA at (270) GREEN BAY
* FAVORITES have won the last five SU and ATS in the MIN-GB h2h series
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(281) NEW ENGLAND at (282) SAN FRANCISCO
* ROAD TEAMS are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the NE-SF series
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS

(263) NEW ORLEANS at (264) ATLANTA
* UNDER the total is 15-8 in the NO-ATL series since 2012
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(277) PHILADELPHIA at (278) TAMPA BAY
* The last four games in the PHI-TB series went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(265) PITTSBURGH at (266) INDIANAPOLIS
* HOME TEAMS are on 7-2 ATS surge in the PIT-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS

(279) WASHINGTON at (280) ARIZONA
* The last four games of the WAS-ARI series went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(291) SEATTLE at (292) DETROIT
* SEATTLE is on a 5-0 ATS streak vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS(289) TENNESSEE at (290) MIAMI
* UNDERDOGS are 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 of the TEN-MIA series
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

Previous articleTuley’s Takes: NFL Week 4 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions
Next articleNFL Week 4 Survivor Picks 2024
Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR