The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-14 SU and 46-22-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)

NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN) 

Atlanta has 13 straight Unders in Primetime games (including 7 straight on Thursday Night Football)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-ATL (o/u at 44)

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-2 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at NE) 

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)

GREEN BAY is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 vs. LA Rams
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 a LAR)

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 79-64 SU but just 44-88-11 ATS, for 33.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: HOUSTON +1 vs BUF (+6.4 difference) 

NFL Betting Trend Strategies Using DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic NFL betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Now, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, ARIZONA, GREEN BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t’ value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER, ARIZONA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two less non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, DALLAS, KANSAS CITY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September ‘22. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, INDIANAPOLIS, ARIZONA, DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) & 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, JACKSONVILLE, ARIZONA, DALLAS 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2, last year it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023 after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – BUF-HOU, GB-LAR
UNDER – BAL-CIN, IND-JAX, ARI-SF 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CAR-CHI, BAL-CIN, MIA-NE, ARI-SF, DAL-PIT, NO-KC

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for the super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-ATL, IND-JAX, CLE-WAS, GB-LAR

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): TB-ATL, IND-JAX 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike MacDonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: CAR(+4)-CHI, MIA-NE(-1), NYG-SEA(-6))

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 153-172-9 ATS (47.1%). Road/Neutral games – 175-154-8 ATS (53.2%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD TEAMS– CAROLINA
FADE HOME TEAMS – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 240-239-2 SU and 240-228-13 ATS (51.3%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-123-6 ATS (47.7%), Conference games 124-120-4 ATS (50.8%), Non-conference games 92-83-7 ATS (52.6%). These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY – CAROLINA, SEATTLE
FADE – NEW ENGLAND 

– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-85-8 ATS, good for 50%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-159-9 ATS (48.9%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins and keeping them together after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 193-181-6 ATS (51.6%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 133-141-11 ATS (48.5%).
System Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: TB-ATL(-1.5), CLE-WAS(-3))

– Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 78-114-1 ATS (40.6%). Road/Neutral games – 96-103 ATS (48.2%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, WASHINGTON 

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 79-64 SU but just 44-88-11 ATS, for 33.3%! As dogs (or pick em), 81-184 SU and 130-129-6 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, WASHINGTON

– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 87-136-7 ATS (39%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, WASHINGTON

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 70-75 ATS (48.3%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 103-140-1 ATS (42.4%) in that same time span.
System Matches: SLIGHT FADE – ATLANTA, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2024 include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: CAR-CHI(-4), CLE-WAS(-3), LVR-DEN(-2.5)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 174-305-2 SU (36.3%) and 227-248-6 ATS (47.8%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright & ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 28-256 SU and 57-220-7 ATS (20.6%), as opposed to 222-141 SU & 257-96-9 ATS (72.8%) when topping that point benchmark.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional & non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 40-92 SU and 53-75-4 ATS (41.4%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match: FADE – DENVER

–  Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 23-45 SU and 29-38-1 ATS (43.3%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 45-51 SU but 57-39 ATS (59.4%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets) and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: TB-ATL(-1.5), NYJ(+3)-MIN)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 21-33 SU and 21-32-1 ATS (39.6%) in their last 54 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 115-68 SU and 96-76-11 ATS (55.8%).
System Match: PLAY – ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QB’s have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 73-65 SU and 77-58-3 ATS (57%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-67 SU but 61-42-5 ATS (59.2%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more.
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)

CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 18-12 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)

 Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN) 

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 33-34 SU and 39-26-2 ATS (60%) in the last 67.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 at ATL)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 22-20 SU but 13-27-2 ATS (32.5%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)

· A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 16-16 SU but 12-20 ATS (37.5%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)

Bad TNF Team Trends
Atlanta 1-5 SU and ATS skid the last six
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)

Tampa Bay 2-9 ATS since 2013
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 at ATL)

UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Atlanta seven straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-ATL (o/u at 44)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 17-12 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) in their last 29 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL)

· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 25-21 SU and 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) in the last 46. Under the total is also 25-13 (65.8%) in the last 38.
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER in DAL-PIT (o/u at 44)

· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-22 SU and ATS (29%) in their last 31 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-19 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in their last 31, but those coming off a win are on a current 21-4 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) surge.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL)

· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 13-24 SU and 15-22 ATS (40.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL)

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 15-6 Under since 2016
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-PIT (o/u at 44) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 23-23 SU but 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%) in the last 46.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 32-31 SU but just 21-40-2 ATS (34.4%) in the last 63 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

Good MNF Team Trends
Kansas City 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS since 2012
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO) 

Bad MNF Team Trends                             
New Orleans 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at KC)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team NFL betting trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 12-5 ATS in the last 17
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+2.5 at PIT)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 10-15 SU and 7-18 ATS in the last 25
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 at ATL)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 13 straight Unders
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-ATL (o/u at 44)

New Orleans Under in 17 of the last 22 on the road
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NO-KC (o/u at 43.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 41-15 SU and 32-22-2 ATS (59.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (*if they become favored vs BUF, +1 currently)

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-14 SU and 46-22-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 54-33 SU but 34-50-3 ATS (40.5%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. IND)

The following NFL betting trend systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-2 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at NE)

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-17-3 ATS since ’15, 65.3%, +13.3 Units, 27.1% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+3 vs. GB)

Pre-bye week system #6
Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-23 SU and 27-17 ATS since 1996, 61.4%, +8.3 Units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO) 

Pre-bye week system #7
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 27-7-1 SU and 23-11-1 ATS since ’09, 67.6%, +10.9 Units, 32.1% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/7 vs. New Orleans Saints

· Kansas City has won its last five pre-bye week games, going 4-1 ATS
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

· The Chiefs are on a 6-0 ATS streak as a pre-bye week single-digit favorite
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

Los Angeles Rams Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 vs. Green Bay Packers

· The Rams have gone Under the total in eight of their last nine pre-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in GB-LAR (o/u at 48.5)

· While a big Under team overall, the Rams lean Over the total in home pre-bye week games, 10-3 in the last 13
System Match: PLAY OVER in GB-LAR (o/u at 48.5)

Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 at New England Patriots

· Miami is 5-1 Under the total in its last six pre-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIA-NE (o/u at 35.5)

· Miami is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in pre-bye week divisional games
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at NE) 

Minnesota Vikings Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/6 vs. New York Jets (in London)

· Minnesota is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC teams
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ)

· The Vikings are on a 12-3 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games, but did lose last year
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com and listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANAPOLIS +3 (+2.1)
2. TAMPA BAY +1.5 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -4 (+4.6)
2. NEW ENGLAND -1 (+2.6)
3. SEATTLE -6 (+1.8)
4(tie). WASHINGTON -3 (+1.4)
GREEN BAY -3 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1 (+3.2)
2. CAROLINA +4 (+2.9)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+2.5)
4. TAMPA BAY +1.5 (+2.4)
5. NY GIANTS +6 (+1.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GREEN BAY -3 (+5.3)
2. WASHINGTON -3 (+4.0)
3. PITTSBURGH -2.5 (+1.8)
4. DENVER -2.5 (+1.3)
5. BALTIMORE -2.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LVR-DEN OVER 36 (+1.6)
2. GB-LAR OVER 48.5 (+1.2)
3. NYJ-MIN OVER 40.5 (+0.6)
4(tie). IND-JAX OVER 46 (+0.2)
NYG-SEA OVER 43.5 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TB-ATL UNDER 44 (-2.7)
2. ARI-SF UNDER 49.5 (-2.4)
3. BAL-CIN UNDER 50.5 (-2.0)
4. CLE-WAS UNDER 43.5 (-1.2)
5(tie). BUF-HOU UNDER 47.5 (-0.3)
MIA-NE UNDER 36.5 (-0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1 (+6.4)
2. NY JETS +2.5 (+5.1)
3. CLEVELAND +3 (+4.5)
4. MIAMI +1 (+2.5)
5. CINCINNATI +2.5 (+1.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -4 (+3.0)
2. KANSAS CITY -5.5 (+2.4)
3(tie). GREEN BAY -3 (+0.6)
SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+0.6)
5. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). BUF-HOU OVER 47.5 (+2.3)
NO-KC OVER 43.5 (+2.3)
3. NYJ-MIN OVER 40.5 (+1.6)
4(tie). CLE-WAS OVER 43.5 (+0.9)
GB-LAR OVER 48.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-JAX UNDER 46 (-4.1)
2. ARI-SF UNDER 49.5 (-3.7)
3. TB-ATL UNDER 44 (-3.6)
4. BAL-CIN UNDER 50.5 (-3.5)
5. MIA-NE UNDER 36.5 (-2.2) 

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 8-10-1 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. The average line was +4.4, Team average PF: 24.3
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs. BAL)

* Justin Fields (PIT) is 10-25 SU & 13-20-2 ATS (39.4%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.5, Team average PF: 19.4
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ARIZONA is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+7 at SF) 

* ATLANTA is 17-33 ATS (34%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 31-56 ATS (35.6%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)

* BALTIMORE is 48-56 ATS (46.2%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN) 

* BUFFALO is 35-27 ATS (56.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 26-20 ATS (56.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-1 at HOU) 

* CAROLINA is 17-30 ATS (36.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4 at CHI) 

* CHICAGO is 29-40 ATS (42%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR) 

* CINCINNATI is 24-13 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs. BAL)

* CLEVELAND is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3 at WAS)

* DALLAS is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 18-12 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+2.5 at PIT) 

* DENVER is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 94-58 UNDER the total (61.8%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-2.5 vs LVR), also PLAY UNDER in LVR-DEN (o/u at 36)

* GREEN BAY is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 at LAR) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 25-39 ATS (39.1%) when coming off  SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 18-26 ATS (40.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-22 UNDER the total (60.7%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. IND), also PLAY UNDER in IND-JAX (o/u at 46)

* KANSAS CITY is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs NO) 

* LA RAMS are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 42-34 UNDER the total (55.3%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+3 vs GB), also PLAY UNDER in GB-LAR (o/u at 48.5) 

* LAS VEGAS is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 33-46 ATS (41.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+2.5 at DEN) 

* MIAMI is 33-21 ATS (61.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 48-35 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2014
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (+1 at NE) 

* MINNESOTA is 21-24 ATS (46.7%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 51-38 OVER the total (57.3%) since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ), also PLAY OVER in NYJ-MIN (o/u at 40.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is 26-17 ATS (60.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-18 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at KC)

* NY GIANTS are 48-22 UNDER the total (68.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-SEA (o/u at 43.5) 

* NY JETS are 12-26 ATS (31.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS are 19-40 ATS (32.2%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)

* PITTSBURGH is 20-28 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 95-62 UNDER the total (60.5%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER in DAL-PIT (o/u at 44) 

* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-25 ATS (59%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-13 ATS (59.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs. ARI)

* SEATTLE is 33-20 ATS (62.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-6 vs. NYG)

* WASHINGTON is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-30 UNDER the total (56.5%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), also PLAY UNDER in CLE-WAS (o/u at 44.5) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(301) TAMPA BAY at (302) ATLANTA
* OVER the total is 7-1 in the last eight of TB-ATL series at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(467) ARIZONA at (468) SAN FRANCISCO
* The last five games in ARI-SF rivalry went OVER the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(455) BALTIMORE at (456) CINCINNATI
* BALTIMORE is on 5-1 ATS run at Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS

(457) BUFFALO at (458) HOUSTON
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the BUF-HOU series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(453) CAROLINA at (454) CHICAGO
* UNDERDOGS are 6-0 ATS in the last six of the CAR-CHI series in Chicago
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS

(463) CLEVELAND at (464) WASHINGTON
* CLEVELAND is 4-2 ATS vs. Washington since 2004
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(473) DALLAS at (474) PITTSBURGH
* DALLAS has won the last three ATS versus Pittsburgh
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(469) GREEN BAY at (470) LA RAMS
* GREEN BAY is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 vs. Rams
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(459) INDIANAPOLIS at (460) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE has won the last eight ATS hosting Indianapolis
System Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS

(465) LAS VEGAS at (466) DENVER
* LAS VEGAS has won the last six ATS vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS

(461) MIAMI at (462) NEW ENGLAND
* MIAMI has won the last seven ATS vs. New England
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(471) NY GIANTS at (472) SEATTLE
* SEATTLE is on 6-1 ATS run vs. NY Giants
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE ATS

(451) NY JETS vs. (452) MINNESOTA
* FAVORITES are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the NYJ-MIN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS(475) NEW ORLEANS at (476) KANSAS CITY
* ROAD TEAMS are on 3-0-1 ATS run in the NOP-KC series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

For more NFL Week 5 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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