The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 33.4
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs MIA)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding Thursday Night Football road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU and 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 32-8 SU and 29-10-1 ATS (74.4%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-8 vs. CAR)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%, +17.8 Units, 41.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-IND (o/u at 43.5), KC-SF (o/u at 47)

* DETROIT has won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN)

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+5.5 at JAX)

#1 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: DET-MIN UNDER 50 (-5.9 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Now, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CINCINNATI, GREEN BAY, MIAMI, DETROIT, LA RAMS, WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT, NY GIANTS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, GREEN BAY, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of BETS has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): LA CHARGERS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, MIAMI, DETROIT, NY GIANTS, LA RAMS, NY JETS 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2; last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – SEA-ATL, HOU-GB, DET-MIN, CAR-WAS, KC-SF, BAL-TB 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-BUF, PHI-NYG, KC-SF, NYJ-PIT

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): SEA-ATL, HOU-GB, MIA-IND, CAR-WAS, LAC-ARI

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-GB, MIA-IND, LAC-ARI

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(+5.5)-JAX, SEA(+2.5)-ATL, TEN(+9)-BUF, CAR(+8)-WAS)

Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 153-177-9 ATS (46.4%). Road/Neutral games – 175-155-8 ATS (53%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD/NEUTRAL TEAMS – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 30-119 SU (20.1%) and 72-75-2 ATS (49%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Matches: FADE – TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines), and rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 240-244-2 SU & 240-234-13 ATS (50.6%).
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-127-6 ATS (46.9%), Conference games 124-126-4 ATS (49.6%), Non-conference games 92-83-7 ATS (52.6%).

Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-85-8 ATS, good for 50%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 152-166-9 ATS (47.8%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins and keeping them together after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 193-187-6 ATS (50.8%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 133-142-11 ATS (48.4%).
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA 

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: SEA-ATL(-2.5), CAR-WAS(-8), LAC(-2.5)-ARI)

Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 80-114-1 ATS (41.2%). Road/Neutral games – 98-103-1 ATS (48.8%).
System Matches: FADE HOME TEAMS – WASHINGTON
SLIGHT FADE ROAD TEAMS – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 83-64 SU but just 48-88-11 ATS, for 35.3%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-185 SU and 130-129-7 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: FADE FAVORITES – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (44.9%)/Conference (44.0%)/ Non-conference (43.4%) scenarios for re-tread head coaches in their first seasons with new teams over the last decade.

Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 91-136-8 ATS (40.1%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 73-75-1 ATS (49.3%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 104-140-1 ATS (42.6%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road. 

(Games this week: DEN-NO(+3), NE(+5.5)-JAX, CAR-WAS(-8)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 178-307-2 SU (36.7%) and 231-249-7 ATS (48.1%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 110-109 ATS (50.2%) in home games but just 95-115-1 ATS (45.2%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ENGLAND

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 32-8 SU and 29-10-1 ATS (74.4%).
System Match: PLAY – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as road chalk
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 21-20 SU but 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright & ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 28-257 SU and 57-221-7 ATS (20.5%), as opposed to 226-144 SU and 261-98-10 ATS (72.7%) when topping that point benchmark.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks

– Since 2018, rookie QBs are just 25-46 SU and 31-38-2 ATS (44.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 46-52 SU but 58-40 ATS (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
In their last 138 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 45-95 SU & 61-77-2 ATS (44.2%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ORLEANS, NEW ENGLAND, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 17-16 SU and 22-9-2 ATS (71%) in their L33 such tries. Moreover, they are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: SEA-ATL(-2.5), NYJ-PIT (+1.5)) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 116-69 SU and 97-77-11 ATS (55.7%).
System Matches: PLAY – ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 79-63 SU but 79-61-2 ATS (56.4%).
System Matches: PLAY – ATLANTA, NY JETS, PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QBs have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 74-67 SU and 78-60-3 ATS (56.5%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Match: PLAY – NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 42-30 SU but 27-44-1 ATS (38%).
System Match: FADE – NY JETS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 21-17 SU but 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in their last 38 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (*if they become favorites at MIN, +2.5 currently)

TNF, SNF, & MNF Team NFL Betting Trends & Systems for the NFL

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 34-35 SU and 40-27-2 ATS (59.7%) in the last 69.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-21 SU but 14-28-2 ATS (33.3%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)

· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in their last 23, scoring just 14.9 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 21 (76.2%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs DEN), also PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)

· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with an 18-18 SU & 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 at NO)

·Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 24-31 SU & 19-35-1 ATS (35.2%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)

UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
New Orleans 11-3 Under since TNF debuted in 2012
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 17-20 SU and 21-14-2 ATS (60%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs. NYJ)

· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-22 SU and ATS (31.3%) in their last 32 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-1.5 at PIT)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-20 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in their last 32, but those coming off a win are on a current 21-5 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs. NYJ)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) dating back to September ’21. The last 21 of these games have seen Under the total go 17-3-1 (85%) as well, games producing just 35.9 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL), PLAY ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC), also PLAY UNDER in both games

· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 24-23 SU but 13-32-2 ATS (28.9%) in the last 47.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC)

·  Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 34-31 SU but just 23-40-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 65 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 at ARI) 

Bad MNF Team Trends                             
Arizona 2-7 ATS in the last nine
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC) 

Under the Total MNF Team Trends
Arizona 7-2 Under in the last nine
LA Chargers 10-2 Under in the last 12
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-ARI (o/u at 43.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 25-11 SU and 23-12-1 ATS last 36
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at TB)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 7-20 SU and 8-17-2 ATS L27
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-3 at NO)

New Orleans 0-7 ATS skid at home
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. DEN)

NY Jets 2-14 SU while going 4-12 ATS
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-1.5 at PIT)

Tampa Bay 10-16 SU and 7-19 ATS in the last 26
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL)

Under the Total Primetime (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 17-3 Under since 2017
System Match (FADE): PLAY UNDER in DEN-NO (o/u at 37)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs. MIA) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 57-14 SU and 47-22-2 ATS (68.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (*if they become favored at SF, +1.5 currently)

NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 21-61 SU but 51-29-2 ATS (63.8%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+2.5 at ATL), CAROLINA (+8 at WAS)
Also NY JETS (*if they become underdogs at PIT, -1.5 currently) 

Post-Bye Weeks NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 22-19 SU and 26-13-2 ATS since 2015, 66.7%, +11.7 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 66)
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-7 vs. LVR)

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 19-10 SU and ATS since 2019, 65.5%, +8.0 Units, 27.6% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+3 at IND)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%, +17.8 Units, 41.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-IND (o/u at 43.5), KC-SF (o/u at 47) 

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 at San Francisco 49ers

·  Kansas City has lost its last three post-bye week games versus NFC foes, both SU and ATS
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)

· The Chiefs are 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47)

Los Angeles Rams Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

·The Rams are on a 0-3 SU and ATS post-bye week skid after going 10-3-1 ATS in prior 14
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-7 vs. LVR)

· The Rams are on a 4-1 Under the total run in post-bye week home games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

Miami Dolphins Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 at Indianapolis Colts

· Miami hasn’t had a post-bye week road game since 2018, but is 8-2 ATS in that situation since 2003
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3 at IND)

· The Dolphins are 6-1 Under the total in their last seven post-bye week games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/20 vs. Detroit Lions

· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DET)

· The Vikings are on a run of 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in post-bye week games versus Detroit
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs. DET)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PITTSBURGH +1.5 (+4.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +3 (+2.3)
3. CLEVELAND +6 (+2.1)
4. DETROIT +2 (+1.4)
5. ARIZONA +2.5 (+0.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON -8 (+3.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+2.5)
3. ATLANTA -3 (+2.4)
4(tie). GREEN BAY -2.5 (+1.2)
BUFFALO -9 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY +3.5 (+2.6)
2. PITTSBURGH +1.5 (+2.1)
3. KANSAS CITY +1.5 (+1.5)
4. CAROLINA +8 (+1.1)
5. NEW ENGLAND +5.5 (+0.6) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -3 (+2.5)
2. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+2.2)
3. MINNESOTA -2 (+2.0)
4. GREEN BAY -2.5 (+1.9)
5. BUFFALO -9 (+1.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-NO OVER 37 (+3.6)
2. LVR-LAR OVER 43.5 (+3.0)
3. PHI-NYG OVER 43 (+1.9)
4. CIN-CLE OVER 42 (+1.4)
5. MIA-IND OVER 43.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-MIN UNDER 50 (-5.9)
2. TEN-BUF UNDER 41 (-2.9)
3. KC-SF UNDER 47 (-1.4)
4. BAL-TB UNDER 49.5 (-1.0)
5. LAC-ARI UNDER 43.5 (-0.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +3 (+6.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +3 (+6.0)
3. CLEVELAND +6 (+4.6)
4. CAROLINA +8 (+3.8)
5. ARIZONA +2.5 (+3.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+4.7)
2. JACKSONVILLE -5.5 (+2.9)
3. GREEN BAY -2.5 (+1.3)
4. LA RAMS -6.5 (+1.1)
5. BUFFALO -9 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEN-BUF OVER 41 (+2.7)
2. DEN-NO OVER 37 (+2.3)
3. MIA-IND OVER 43.5 (+2.0)
4. NE-JAX OVER 42.5 (+1.4)
5. KC-SF OVER 47 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-NYG UNDER 43 (-3.4)
2. CAR-WAS UNDER 51.5 (-2.7)
3. DET-MIN UNDER 50 (-2.2)
4. LAC-ARI UNDER 43.5 (-2.0)
5. NYJ-PIT UNDER 38 (-0.7) 

Here are top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 33.4
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF) 

* Jared Goff (DET) is 29-25 SU but 38-16 ATS (70.4%) with current HC Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.4, Team average PF: 24.5
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 22-29 ATS (43.1%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+3 vs. LAC) 

* ATLANTA is 18-33 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 33-56 ATS (37.1%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 vs. SEA)

* BALTIMORE is 49-56-1 ATS (46.7%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 40-20 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-3.5 at TB) 

* BUFFALO is 35-28 ATS (55.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-9 vs TEN) 

* CAROLINA is 17-31 ATS (35.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+8 at WAS) 

* CINCINNATI is 52-29 ATS (64.2%) in road/neutral games since 2015
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-6 at CLE) 

* CLEVELAND is 30-41 ATS (42.3%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-35 ATS (35.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Systems Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6 vs. CIN) 

* DENVER is 17-33 ATS (34%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 94-60 UNDER the total (61%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-3 at NO), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37)

* DETROIT is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* DETROIT is 39-16 ATS (70.9%) overall since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN) 

* GREEN BAY is 30-17 ATS (63.8%) at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs. HOU)

* JACKSONVILLE is 25-40 ATS (38.5%) when coming off  SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 18-28 ATS (39.1%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-24 UNDER the total (58.6%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-5.5 vs. NE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
* KANSAS CITY is 53-34-1 ATS (60.9%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (72.7%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)

* LA RAMS are 22-14 ATS (61.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 11-16 ATS (40.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 43-34 UNDER the total (55.8%) since 2020
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-7 vs. LVR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5) 

* LAS VEGAS is 30-44 ATS (40.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 33-47 ATS (41.3%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Systems Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+7 at LAR) 

* MIAMI is 48-35 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2014
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at IND) 

* MINNESOTA is 22-24 ATS (47.8%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 14-22 ATS (38.9%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 51-39 OVER the total (56.7%) since 2019
Systems Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs. DET), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 50)

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+5.5 at JAX)

* NEW ORLEANS is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 21-39 ATS (35%) at home since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs DEN)

* NY GIANTS are 49-23 UNDER the total (68.1%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in PHI-NYG (o/u at 43) 

* NY JETS are 9-21 ATS (30%) as a favorite since 2017
* NY JETS are 19-41 ATS (31.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 at PIT) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-28 ATS (40.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-3 at NYG) 

* PITTSBURGH is 96-63 UNDER the total (60.4%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 31-16 ATS (66%) as an underdog since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs. NYJ), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-26 ATS (58.1%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-25 ATS (43.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5 vs. KC)

* SEATTLE is 33-22 ATS (60%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 32-23 ATS (58.2%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+2.5 at ATL) 

* TAMPA BAY is 35-47 ATS (42.7%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs. BAL)

* TENNESSEE is 33-46 ATS (41.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+9 at BUF) 

* WASHINGTON is 17-32 ATS (34.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-32 UNDER the total (54.9%) since 2020
Systems Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-8 vs. CAR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 51.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(311) DENVER at (312) NEW ORLEANS
* ROAD TEAMS are on 6-1 ATS run in the DEN-NO series
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-3 at NO)

(469) CAROLINA at (470) WASHINGTON
* UNDERDOGS are 14-2 ATS in the CAR-WAS series since 1995
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+8 at WAS)

(457) CINCINNATI at (458) CLEVELAND
* HOME TEAMS have won the last four ATS in the CIN-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+6 vs CIN)

(463) DETROIT at (464) MINNESOTA
* DETROIT has won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN)

(459) HOUSTON at (460) GREEN BAY
* GREEN BAY has won the last three ATS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs. HOU)

(471) KANSAS CITY at (472) SAN FRANCISCO
* KANSAS CITY is on 7-0-1 ATS surge vs. San Francisco
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF) 

(467) LAS VEGAS at (468) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS are on six-game ATS winning streak vs. Raiders
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS (-7 vs. LVR)

(461) MIAMI at (462) INDIANAPOLIS
* UNDERDOGS are 14-2-1 ATS in the MIA-IND series since 1999
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 at IND)

(451) NEW ENGLAND vs. (452) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE is just 2-6 ATS in the last eightgames away from home vs. NE
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-5.5 vs. NE)

(473) NY JETS at (474) PITTSBURGH
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in the last six of the NYJ-PIT series but lost the last time
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38)

(465) PHILADELPHIA at (466) NY GIANTS
* UNDERDOGS are 10-5 ATS in the PHI-NYG series since 2017
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+3 vs. PHI)

(453) SEATTLE at (454) ATLANTA
* UNDERDOGS are on 11-4-1 ATS run in the SEA-ATL series
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+2.5 at ATL)

(455) TENNESSEE at (456) BUFFALO
* UNDERDOGS are on 9-2-1 ATS run in the TEN-BUF series
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (+9 at BUF)

(475) BALTIMORE at (476) TAMPA BAY
* ROAD TEAMS are on six-game ATS winning streak in BAL-TB set
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-3.5 at TB)(477) LA CHARGERS at (478) ARIZONA

* UNDER the total is 3-0-1 in the last four of the LAC-ARI series at Arizona
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

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