The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Houston: 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. IND
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-HOU (o/u at 46) 

NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-32 SU but 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches: PLAY CAROLINA (+10 at DEN), PLAY NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 23-50 SU but 46-26-1 ATS (63.9%) since 2007.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs NYJ)

NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-15 SU and 3-16 ATS (15.8%) in their last 19 tries.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 at SF) 

LA Rams 13-4 Under surge in primetime and Minnesota 21-11 Under primetime record since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48)

Chicago is 1-9 SU and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by 12.8 PPG in the nine losses
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS)

Jacksonville is 10-34 ATS (22.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. GB) 

* All 10 games in Buffalo-Seattle series since 1995 went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in BUF-SEA (o/u at 46.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: CAROLINA +10 at DEN (+5.9 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Now, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, DETROIT, GREEN BAY, MIAMI, ATLANTA, NY JETS, BUFFALO, DENVER, PITTSBURGH

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, NY JETS, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, NY JETS, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, GREEN BAY, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, BUFFALO, LA CHARGERS, DENVER, PITTSBURGH

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, GREEN BAY, ATLANTA, NY JETS, BUFFALO, KANSAS CITY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – MIN-LAR, GB-JAX, PHI-CIN, BUF-SEA, DAL-SF
UNDER – ARI-MIA

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, which is evidence of how rarely the betting public bets on the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-DET, BAL-CLE, GB-JAX, IND-HOU, ARI-MIA, NYJ-NE, BUF-SEA, CAR-DEN, DAL-SF, NYG-PIT

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-LAR, ATL-TB, PHI-CIN, NO-LAC, KC-LVR

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-LAC, KC-LVR

Rookie/Retread Coaching NFL Betting Trend Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: TEN(+11)-DET, NYJ-NE(+7), BUF-SEA(+3), CAR(+9)-DEN)

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 153-177-9 ATS (46.4%). Road/Neutral games – 176-158-8 ATS (52.7%).
System Matches: PLAY ROAD/NEUTRAL TEAMS – TENNESSEE, CAROLINA
FADE HOME TEAMS – NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE 

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 30-122 SU (20.1%) & 72-78-2 ATS (48%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Matches: FADE – TENNESSEE, NEW ENGLAND, CAROLINA

– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+6.5 to -6.5 lines) where rookie head coaches enjoy better point spread success rates. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 241-244-2 SU and 241-234-13 ATS (50.7%).
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY – SEATTLE

– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2013: Divisional games 112-127-6 ATS (46.9%), Conference games 125-129-4 ATS (49.2%), Non-conference games 92-83-7 ATS (52.6%).

–  Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-85-8 ATS, good for 50%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 153-169-9 ATS (47.5%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – TENNESSEE, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, CAROLINA

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins and keeping them together after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 194-190-6 ATS (50.5%) since 2014. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, 133-142-11 ATS (48.4%).
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY – NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, CAROLINA
SLIGHT FADE – SEATTLE

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 25-45 SU and 31-38-1 ATS (44.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND 

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: ATL(-2.5)-TB, CHI-WAS(+2.5), NO-LAC(-7))

– Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 81-115-1 ATS (41.3%). Road/Neutral games – 98-104-1 ATS (48.5%).
System Matches: FADE HOME TEAMS – WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS
SLIGHT FADE ROAD TEAMS – ATLANTA

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 84-66 SU but just 49-90-11 ATS, for 35.3%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-185 SU & 130-129-7 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: FADE FAVORITES – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

– The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (44.9%)/Conference (44.0%)/ Non-conference (43.4%) scenarios for re-tread head coaches in their first seasons with new teams over the last decade.

– Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 92-138-8 ATS (40%), while in weeks #11 & later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 73-77-1 ATS (48.7%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 105-140-1 ATS (42.9%) in that same time span.
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

–  Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 24-20-3 ATS (54.5%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the rematch.
System Match: FADE – ATLANTA 

Rookie Quarterback NFL Betting Trend Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road. 

(Games this week: NYJ-NE(+7), NO(+7)-LAC, CHI(-2.5)-WAS, CAR-DEN(-9)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 180-307-2 SU (37%) and 233-249-7 ATS (48.3%). Furthermore, this past season saw the #1 pick, Bryce Young of the Panthers, guide his team to the worst won-lost percentage drop in his starts for any QB in the last 20 years.
System Matches: FADE – CHICAGO, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 111-110 ATS (50.2%) in home games but just 96-116-1 ATS (45.3%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 17 games, going 17-113 SU and 49-77-4 ATS (38.9%).
System Matches: FADE – NEW ENGLAND, NEW ORLEANS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 33-8 SU and 30-10-1 ATS (75%).
System Match: PLAY – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as road chalk
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 22-20 SU but 18-23-1 ATS (43.9%).
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Scoring more than 17 points is a key benchmark for outright and ATS success for rookie quarterbacks
Since 2009, rookie starting quarterbacks whose teams have scored 17 points or less in a game are a brutal 28-259 SU and 57-223-7 ATS (20.4%), as opposed to 228-144 SU and 263-98-10 ATS (72.9%) when topping that point benchmark.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 41-94 SU and 54-77-4 ATS (41.2%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match: FADE – NEW ENGLAND

Since 2018, rookie QB are just 26-47 SU and 32-39-2 ATS (45.1%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches: FADE – NEW ORLEANS, DENVER

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 47-53 SU but 59-41 ATS (59%).
System Match: PLAY – CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 144 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 47-97 SU and 63-79-2 ATS (44.4%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – NEW ENGLAND, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).

(Games this week: NYJ(-7)-NE, ATL(-2.5)-TB, NYG-PIT(-6.5))

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-34 SU and 22-33-1 ATS (40%) in their last 56 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 28 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 117-70 SU and 98-78-11 ATS (55.7%).
System Match: PLAY – PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QB’s have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses.
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 74-68 SU and 78-61-3 ATS (56.1%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 42-31 SU but 27-45-1 ATS (37.5%).
System Matches: FADE – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Similarly to #4 above, NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 24-21-1 SU and 16-28-2 ATS (36.4%) in their last 46 tries.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-8.5 at CLE)

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that lose by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have been fantastic bets in the follow-up contest, going 9-11-2 SU but 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in their last 22 tries.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4 at SF)

 NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 9-20-2 SU but 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) in their last 31 tries.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4 at SF)

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-32 SU but 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches: PLAY CAROLINA (+10 at DEN), PLAY NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT)

TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS (15.8%) in their last 19 tries.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4 at SF)

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-35 SU and 41-27-2 ATS (60.3%) in the last 70.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 at LAR)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-22 SU but 14-29-2 ATS (32.6%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 37-25 SU & 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+2.5 vs MIN)

Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) in their last 24, scoring just 14.7 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the last 22 (72.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: FADE LA RAMS (+2.5 vs MIN), also PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48)

There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 19-18 SU and 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) record.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 at LAR) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the opposite direction, showing a record of 17-13 SU & 11-19 ATS (36.7%) in their last 30 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. DAL)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-20 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in their last 32, but those coming off a win are on a current 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. DAL) 

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 16-6 Under since 2016
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-SF (o/u at 46) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 25-24 SU but 14-33-2 ATS (29.8%) in the last 49.
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs NYG)

In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 10-13 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in their last 23 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 34-32 SU but just 23-41-2 ATS (35.9%) in the L66 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. NYG)

Bad MNF Team Trends                             
NY Giants 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team NFL Betting Trends
Dallas 13-5 ATS in the last 18
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4.5 at SF)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team NFL Betting Trends
NY Giants 4-23 SU since last back-to-back wins (12-15 ATS)
System Match: FADE NY GIANTS (+6.5 at PIT)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 13-4 Under surge
Minnesota 21-11 Under primetime record since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages For Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 23-50 SU but 46-26-1 ATS (63.9%) since 2007.
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs. NYJ)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-39 SU and 14-38-4 ATS (26.9%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+5 at HOU)

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 20-24 SU but 28-14-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last 44 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+10 at DEN)

NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 49-11 SU and 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-8.5 at CLE), PLAY KANSAS CITY (-10 at LVR) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 55-34 SU but 34-52-3 ATS (39.5%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-7 at NE)

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 66-34-2 ATS since ’10, 66%, +28.6 Units, 28.6% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. DAL), PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs NYG) 

Pre-bye week system #6
Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-24 SU and 27-18 ATS since 1996, 60%, +7.2 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. NYG)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers Pre-Bye Week Game: MON 10/28 vs. New York Giants

· Pittsburgh is 6-2 Under the total in its last eight pre-bye week home games
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 36.5)

· The Steelers have won their last five pre-bye week games as favorites, going 3-2 ATS
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. NYG)

San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/27 vs. Dallas Cowboys

· San Francisco has gone just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six pre-bye week games
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs DAL)

· The 49ers are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 pre-bye week home games
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 vs. DAL)

Post Bye-Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 109-45 SU and 92-58-4 ATS since 1999, 61.3%, +28.2 Units, 18.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS) 

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 20-10 SU and ATS since 2019, 66.7%, +9.0 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 62)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS), SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 at SF)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 33-12 since 2021, 73.3%, +19.8 Units, 44% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CHI-WAS (o/u at 43.5), PLAY UNDER in DAL-SF (o/u at 46.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Chicago Bears Post-Bye Week Game: 10/27 at Washington Commanders

· Chicago is 1-9 SU and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by 12.8 PPG in the nine losses
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS)

· The Bears are on a 4-0 Over the total surge in post-bye week road games, allowing 40.8 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in CHI-WAS (o/u at 43.5)

Dallas Cowboys Post-Bye Week Game: 10/27 at San Francisco 49ers

· Dallas is on a 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS run in post-bye week games
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4.5 at SF)

· The Cowboys are 16-3 over the total in post-bye week games since 2005
System Match: PLAY OVER in DAL-SF (o/u at 46.5)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– NY Jets: 5-20 SU and 8-16-1 ATS skid
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-7 at NE)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
–  Indianapolis: 2-9 ATS skid in revenge mode
System Match: FADE INDIANAPOLIS (+5 at HOU)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends
–  Houston: 14-1 Unders vs. IND, also 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-HOU (o/u at 46), also FADE HOUSTON (-5 vs IND)

–  New England: 7-1 SU and ATS second-time around run vs. NYJ, allowing a mere 7.4 PPG
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs. NYJ)

Rematch NFL Betting Trend Systems
Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 81-24 SU and 67-38 ATS (63.8%) in the rematch
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (-7 at NE)

This week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY +2.5 (+2.2)
2. ARIZONA +3.5 (+1.8)
3. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+1.4)
4. SEATTLE +3 (+0.7)
5. INDIANAPOLIS +5 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PITTSBURGH -6.5 (+4.1)
2. BALTIMORE -8.5 (+2.9)
3. DENVER -10 (+2.1)
4. KANSAS CITY -10 (+2.0)
5. DETROIT -11 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CAROLINA +10 (+2.5)
2. ARIZONA +3.5 (+1.9)
3. DALLAS +4 (+1.7)
4. CLEVELAND +8.5 (+1.2)
5. INDIANAPOLIS +5 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -2.5 (+1.8)
2. GREEN BAY -4 (+1.6)
3. NY JETS -7 (+0.7)
4. DETROIT -11 (+0.6) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARI-MIA OVER 45.5 (+2.1)
2. BUF-SEA OVER 46.5 (+1.3)
3. NYG-PIT OVER 36.5 (+1.2)
4. CAR-DEN OVER 41.5 (+0.9)
5. DAL-SF OVER 46 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-CIN UNDER 48 (-2.8)
2. MIN-LAR UNDER 48 (-2.0)
3. CHI-WAS UNDER 43.5 (-1.0)
4. NYJ-NE UNDER 41 (-0.4)
5. IND-HOU UNDER 46 (-0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CAROLINA +10 (+5.9)
2. JACKSONVILLE +4 (+3.6)
3. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+2.7)
4. NY GIANTS +6.5 (+2.3)
5. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+1.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS -7 (+5.6)
2(tie). HOUSTON -5 (+1.4)
CINCINNATI -2 (+1.4)
4. ATLANTA -2.5 (+1.0)
5. SAN FRANCISCO -4 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). DAL-SF OVER 46 (+2.7)
NYG-PIT OVER 36.5 (+2.7)
3. TEN-DET OVER 45 (+2.3)
4. BUF-SEA OVER 46.5 (+2.1)
5. CAR-DEN OVER 41.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARI-MIA UNDER 45.5 (-2.8)
2. NYJ-NE UNDER 41 (-1.9)
3. BAL-CLE UNDER 44.5 (-1.8)
4. MIN-LAR UNDER 48 (-1.4)
5. NO-LAC UNDER 40.5 (-1.3)

Here are 19 top NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Jared Goff (DET) is 30-25 SU but 39-16 ATS (70.9%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.4, Team average PF: 24.6
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-11 vs TEN)

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 28-2 SU but 12-17-1 ATS (42.9%) in his last 30 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.9, Team average PF: 28.3
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-10 at LVR)

* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 3-12 SU and ATS (20%) in non-conference games. The average line was +3.6, Team average PF: 16.7
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. GB) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 27-20 ATS (57.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 26-18 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+3.5 at MIA) 

* ATLANTA is 33-57 ATS (36.7%) as a favorite since 2014
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at TB) 

* BALTIMORE is 50-56-1 ATS (47.2%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 41-20 ATS (67.2%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-8.5 at CLE) 

* BUFFALO is 27-21 ATS (56.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-3 at SEA) 

* CHICAGO is 30-40 ATS (42.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 26-42 ATS (38.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016
Systems Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2.5 at WAS) 

* CLEVELAND is 30-42 ATS (41.7%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-36 ATS (34.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Systems Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+8.5 vs. BAL)

* DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (72.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 27-20 ATS (57.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 19-12 ATS (61.3%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+4.5 at SF) 

* DENVER is 18-33 ATS (35.3%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 94-61 Under the total (60.6%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-10 vs. CAR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* DETROIT is 20-7 ATS (74.1%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 40-16 ATS (71.4%) overall since 2021
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-11 vs. TEN)

* JACKSONVILLE is 10-34 ATS (22.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-25 Under the total (57.6%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. GB), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49)

* KANSAS CITY is 10-14-1 ATS (41.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 54-34-1 ATS (61.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-10 at LVR) 

* LA CHARGERS are 32-48-1 ATS (40%) at home since 2014
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-7 vs. NO) 

* LA RAMS are 44-34 Under the total (56.4%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in MIN-LAR (o/u at 48)

* LAS VEGAS is 31-44 ATS (41.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 23-14 ATS (62.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+10 vs. KC)

* MIAMI is 57-29 ATS (66.3%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI is 27-16 ATS (62.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (-3.5 vs. ARI)

* MINNESOTA is 30-23 ATS (56.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 52-39 Over the total (57.1%) since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 at LAR), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+7 vs. NYJ)

* NEW ORLEANS is 26-20 ATS (56.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-19 ATS (64.8%) in road/neutral games since 2018
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+7 at LAC) 

* NY GIANTS are 50-23 Under the total (68.5%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NYG-PIT (o/u at 36.5)

* NY JETS are 18-32 ATS (36%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS are 9-22 ATS (29%) as a favorite since 2017
* NY JETS are 19-42 ATS (31.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-7 at NE)

* PHILADELPHIA is 20-28 ATS (41.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+2 at CIN) 

* PITTSBURGH is 21-29 ATS (42%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 96-64 UNDER the total (60%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. NYG), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 36.5) 

* SEATTLE is 37-49-1 ATS (43%) when coming off SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 21-15-1 ATS (58.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE is 33-23 ATS (58.9%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+3 vs. BUF) 

* TAMPA BAY is 25-34 ATS (42.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 35-48 ATS (42.2%) at home since 2014
Systems Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs. ATL) 

* WASHINGTON is 20-9-1 ATS (69%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 40-32 Under the total (55.6%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs. CHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(109) MINNESOTA at (110) LA RAMS
* Favorites are on 9-2-1 ATS run in the MIN-LAR series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(271) ARIZONA at (272) MIAMI
* The last five games of the series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(273) ATLANTA at (274) TAMPA BAY
* Under the total is on 2-0 run in the series in Tampa after an 0-5 skid
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(265) BALTIMORE at (266) CLEVELAND
* BALTIMORE is on a 13-3 ATS run at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS

(279) BUFFALO at (280) SEATTLE
* All 10 games in the series since 1995 went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(287) CAROLINA at (288) DENVER
* Unnderdogs have won the last four ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS

(275) CHICAGO at (276) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are on a 10-2 ATS surge in the series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(289) DALLAS at (290) SAN FRANCISCO
* SAN FRANCISCO is on three-game SU and ATS winning streak vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS 

(267) GREEN BAY at (268) JACKSONVILLE
* Road teams are on a 5-1 ATS surge in the series
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(269) INDIANAPOLIS at (270) HOUSTON
* INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1-1 ATS at Houston since 2013
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS

(285) KANSAS CITY at (286) LAS VEGAS
* Over the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the series at Raiders
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(281) NEW ORLEANS at (282) LA CHARGERS
* The last six games of the series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(277) NY JETS at (278) NEW ENGLAND
* NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine hosting NY Jets
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS

(283) PHILADELPHIA at (284) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Philadelphia since 1994
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS

(263) TENNESSEE at (264) DETROIT
* TENNESSEE has won the last five ATS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS

(291) NY GIANTS at (292) PITTSBURGH
* The last four games of the series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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