NFL Lookahead Lines:

The current two-week stretch is the most difficult to read of the season to date. Advising Seattle -3 at this time last week is the perfect example. Reports said the Rams picked up the phone and called several teams to see if they wanted to trade for star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Puka Nacua was also far from a sure thing to be back at this point. Not only did he return against Minnesota, but Nacua looked like Jerry Rice in his prime. Yada yada yada, the Seahawks are now home dogs this week. The trade deadline has been active as of this post, and it could continue to be fast and furious before the November 5 cutoff.

The following are current Week 10 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:

 

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Week 10 Thursday Night Football

  • Bengals at Ravens (-5.5, 50)

Week 10 Sunday NFL games

  • Giants (-5.5, 41) vs. Panthers … in Germany
  • Patriots at Bears (-6.5, 40.5)
  • 49ers (-5.5, 48) at Buccaneers
  • Vikings (-4, 47.5) at Jaguars
  • Falcons (-1, 47) at Saints
  • Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 42)
  • Steelers at Commanders (-1.5, 45)
  • Bills (-4, 47 at Colts)
  • Titans at Chargers (-7, 38)
  • Eagles (-2.5, 47.5) at Cowboys
  • Jets at Cardinals (-1, 45)

Week 10 Sunday Night Football

  • Lions (-2.5, 48.5) at Texans

Week 10 Monday Night Football

  • Dolphins at Rams (-2.5, 49.5)

Schedule tidbits: The Texans (hosting Detroit) will have extra rest coming off of Thursday Night Football, and the same is true for the Jets playing at Arizona. The 49ers will be coming off of a bye versus the Buccaneers, a game in which Tampa Bay will be playing for the 10th consecutive week. Pittsburgh, also off the bye, is in the same boat playing Washington. The Commanders do not get their bye until Week 14. The Steelers have won seven straight games after the bye. Here is a link to file away from Steve Makinen about NFL teams off the bye.

51 is a key number for totals in the NFL. The total closed around 47.5 when Baltimore beat Cincinnati 41-38 in a Week 5 overtime thriller. The Ravens are 7-1 to the Over on the season and have several of the best offensive metrics in the league. As good as the Baltimore offense has been, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Joe Burrow threw for 392 yards in that game along with five touchdowns. The two games these division rivals played in 2023 produced finals of 27-24 and 34-20. The two matchups in 2022 each stayed under this number, but Cincinnati beat Baltimore 41-17 and 41-21 in 2021. Burrow threw for 416 yards in the first meeting, and 525 in the second! Give me Over 50. 

Here is a list of regular season scores when the Buffalo Bills play the Miami Dolphins (since Tua Tagovailoa was drafted by Miami in 2020, and played in the game):

2020: Buffalo 56 Miami 26

2021: Buffalo 35 Miami 0 (Tua was knocked out of the game early)

2021: Buffalo 26 Miami 11

2022: Miami 21 Buffalo 19 (Bills outgained Miami 497-212)

2022: Buffalo 32 Miami 29

2023: Buffalo 48 Miami 20

2023: Buffalo 21 Miami 14 

2024: Buffalo 31 Miami 10 (Tua was knocked out of the game)

The two teams meet in Week 9, and Buffalo is a six-point favorite. If history repeats itself in a potentially easy Buffalo win, the Dolphins could be catching 3 or more on Monday night in Los Angeles against the Rams. Especially when you consider the Rams are now -2 at Seattle this week, and their offense is getting healthier and better by the week. The Rams, currently around -140 on the moneyline, could be a nice early investment.

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