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What a wild Week 10! With the Monday night walk-off field goal, we had a record six game-ending field goals. I have mentioned how key the number three is in NFL games, and this week was a shining example. Of this week’s 14 games, four games landed on three, and an additional six games ended with two- or four-point delta. Of those six games, four had missed extra points or two-point conversions that, if converted, would have landed on three as well. It is hard to win by margin in today’s NFL, and this week was a shining example of that.
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups
It was finally a good week for the Overs this week, going 8-6 with multiple games crossing over 60, but the prime-time Unders continued to get home, going 4-0 on stand-alone games this week. While it is a trend to pay attention to, it is also important to look at the teams playing in these games. We have had a consistent dose of the Jets, Giants, Broncos, Saints and Bears in prime team games this season. Many of those games would have gone under if played in the 1 p.m. window as well. Make sure you are handicapping the games and not just the time slots.
Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games on Sunday:
Move them up: Denver Broncos
Trust me, I’m as surprised as you are that we are here. After a disastrous start to the season, the Broncos have won their last three over the Packers, Chiefs and Bills. The defense, which gave up a 70 spot to the Dolphins, has turned a corner in two major categories. They have forced 10 turnovers over the last three games and improved on third down.
The offense is not lighting up the scoreboard but has been efficient through the air and on the ground. This team has simply been thriving on a lack of mistakes over the last three weeks which has led to the turnaround.
As you can probably tell by the lack of enthusiasm for this upgrade, I am not convinced that this Broncos team will be a force moving forward. They are still taking too many penalties, and this three-game win streak features a 10-2 advantage in turnover margin. That said, this is a different Denver team than the one that trotted on the field early in the season and should be treated as such.
Move them down: New Orleans Saints
The final score of 27-19 does not do justice to how poorly the Saints played on Sunday. They got boat raced early and found themselves down 24-3 at the half while putting up less than 100 yards of total offense. A defense that headed into the season with high hopes was cut up by Josh Dobbs and a beat-up Vikings offense this week but has been struggling since a win over the Patriots.
With this loss, they moved to 2-7-1 against the spread this year and have cemented Dennis Allen as one of the worst head coaches ATS with an overall record of 23-38-2. There is no other coach with more than a year of experience who is under 40% currently coaching in the NFL.
Early Week 11 plays
A nice rocking chair winner to move to 6-3 in this segment on the year. We have had closing line value in all nine bets so far this year.
Another week, another Under. This time, let’s head to Buffalo and play under 40.5 in the Jets vs. Bills. Both teams are coming off primetime games the week prior, and this Jets defense matches up well against the Bills on the outside. We saw these two play in Week 1, and it was an Under trend that should continue into this week’s game. The move away from Ken Dorsey should create a more run-heavy approach for the Bills, which also supports the Under.
The bet: Jets / Bills u40.5
MVP Market
Our Jalen Hurts tickets took a nice bump this week as he has emerged as the favorite in the market at +280. Patrick Mahomes is now a clear second choice at +300. With the two of them playing on Monday night next week, we will have a clear-cut favorite at the end of next week.
Joe Burrow took the biggest hit this week, with the loss to Houston dropping him down to +1000. His case is going to be a tough one to make moving forward, as he is still quarterbacking the fourth-place team in the AFC North and has next to no chance of winning the conference.
CJ Stroud was the other big mover this week, dropping down to 25-1. While he is a wonderful story, I cannot come up with a scenario which he wins the award. If Houston makes the playoffs, it is much more likely that Ryans wins Coach of the Year. You would need a collapse of the other candidates for Stroud to win.
Season Long Bets Recap
Win Totals:
Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)
Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)
Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)
Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)
Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)
Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)
