NFL Week 11 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
Thursday Night Football struck again, as we saw Bengals QB Joe Burrow leave the game and not return with what was reported as a wrist injury, so the NFL QB carousel continues as another impact player goes down due to injury, a day after Browns QB Deshaun Watson was announced out for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. Nothing impacts a team and a power rating more than a QB injury, although I’m of the opinion that markets often overreact to key injuries, so just file that nugget away for when you inevitably see huge market moves after injuries. Aside from these injury storylines, there is actual football to be played and bets to be made, so let’s check out what my T Shoe Index has for us in the NFL this week.
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Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-3), O/U 44
I bet on the Chargers last week, only for the game to push. It happens. However, this week I’m taking the opposite position against the Packers. I project the Chargers as a mere 2 point favorite, so we’re getting some value on the number while also getting on the key number of 3. If the line drops below 3, I’d prefer to take the Packers team total over 20.5, but as it stands I will take the 3 with the dog. The Chargers defense is a weakness that I think perhaps the Packers with a healthy Aaron Jones can exploit, as it ranks just 22nd in my defensive ratings. While the Chargers offense can be electric (no pun intended), I think the Packers defense can do enough to keep it within striking distance for the offense and ultimately cover this number.
Pick: Packers +3 (Play to +3, -125)
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-7), O/U 40
Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing losses last week. I like divisional underdogs anyway, but the fact that both of these teams are going in bounce back spots sets up a situation where both bring their A game and this is a dog fight. I project this line at 5.5, so we’re again getting good value and a key number with the underdog. Both of these teams have top ten defenses in my ratings, and while the Jags’ offense is certainly superior to the Titans’, I think Will Levis and company can do enough while relying on the defense to keep this thing within the number. Give me the divisional dog and the points.
Pick: Titans +7, (Play to +7, -125)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
