Which teams and players should I bet for first touchdown scorer?
Instant gratification – isn’t it the best? That’s why betting on who will score the first touchdown of NFL games has become my favorite thing to do. But, sometimes it feels like it can be a complete and total crapshoot. It seems impossible to predict who will win the coin toss, how the opening kickoff will go, will a team go for it on 4th down, etc, but I was determined to find a trend, a theme, anything that could give me an edge in this volatile market.
So, I started tracking who scored the first touchdown for every NFL team and if it was the first of the game, and, believe it or not, I was able to find some useful information that I’ve already been able to cash in on. Shout-out to Lions RB Jamaal Williams for scoring his FIFTH first TD of the season last week against the Jaguars (+550).
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What can we glean from my handy-dandy tracker? First, I ranked each team to find out who is the best (and worst) at finding the end zone first. This allowed me to find mismatches and stick to betting players on one team, as opposed to betting on players from both. For example, If the Browns (10 first TDs this season) were facing the Colts (just 3), I’d pick 2-3 players from the Browns and leave the Colts alone. The beauty of the first touchdown market is you can typically bet on as many as 4 players and still make a profit.
Next, I took a look at which position succeeds the most for each team. For example, the Bills have scored their first touchdown via wide receiver in seven of their 12 games so far. If you place bets on Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie, you’re likely in great shape to cash a bet.
Finally, I, of course, needed to know which players were cashing the most tickets. As previously mentioned, Jamaal Williams is a first touchdown god. He not only leads the league in rushing touchdowns with 14, but he’s also in the lead for most first touchdowns of the game with five. (Below I note some of the other players who scored most often early in games)
Even with our newfound knowledge, we know that this is a highly unpredictable market, so we need to be responsible with our bets. I suggest going with smaller units, especially if you are betting multiple players. Remember, only one player can cash a ticket. That being said…let’s see who we should bet on!
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