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Week 15 featured the continued surge of the Buffalo Bills. They had the best 11-day stretch for any team in a while. Not only did they win two key games, they got the losses that they needed to create a route to the playoffs. Currently sitting at the #9 seed in the AFC, they still have a realistic path to the AFC East title with two very winnable games against the Chargers and Patriots before a clash in Miami which could be for all the marbles. Miami plays Dallas and at Baltimore the next two weeks. If they drop either and Buffalo wins out, then Week 18 will decide the division. Buffalo is down to +200 to win the division.
In the NFC, the Eagles continued to reel with a loss on Monday night to the Seahawks. When you combine that with Dallas getting pummeled in Buffalo, San Francisco has now cemented themselves as the #1 seed. The final two playoff spots are wide open with just three weeks left. Currently, five teams are sitting at 7-7 with two wild card spots available. Seattle’s Monday night win was a huge boost to their chances, with three winnable games remaining against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals.
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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:
Move them up: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams also have an inside track on the playoffs with their 7-7 record and are peaking at the right time. Kyren Williams has been great since returning three weeks ago, despite two fumbles last week. Cooper Kupp looks like Cooper Kupp again, and Puka Nacua keeps rolling along. With so many versatile weapons on this offense, it is going to be tough to stop them down the stretch.
The defense is somehow holding it together as well. Yes, they gave up 39 to Baltimore last week, but they have held their opponent to 20 points or less in five of the last six games and are getting back to full health now.
They have a great situation with New Orleans coming to town for a Thursday tilt, where they are installed as a 4-point favorite in the market. I’ve already laid it with the Rams. With the upgrade this week, I’ve got this game rated as the Rams -5.
Move them down: Atlanta Falcons
This is an Arthur Smith problem, and it’s a big one. The Falcons ran the football 31 times on Sunday, and Bijan Robinson got just seven of those carries. They threw the football 20 times, and just three targets went to Drake London. At this point, it is impossible to have faith that he is going to correctly use the talent that he has on offense. They are making a quarterback change this week to Taylor Heinicke for the second time this year. It did not work out the first time, and I doubt it supercharges the offense this time, either.
The defense is still playing well but simply cannot pick up the offense to the extent that they are being asked. The turnovers put them in poor situations, and eventually, they have broken in their last two games.
They have another winnable contest at home versus the Colts, but once again, are laying points in a coin-flip game. Playing the Colts as a teaser leg up to +7.5 is a great look this week.
Early Week 16 plays
Week 15 was our first bad loss, the Charges defense quit, and the over came home easily. We are still 8-6 in the segment and need a win this week to lock in a winning season.
Let’s lay it on the road with Detroit this week. They will head to Minnesota on Sunday and are currently installed as a 3-point favorite. This Lions offense should have success versus an aggressive Vikings defense with a full complement of healthy weapons. I made this game Lions -4 so I want to get the key number of 3 in my account before the market moves toward Detroit.
The bet: Lions -3
Super Bowl Market
Last week, we talked about Buffalo 16-1 to win the AFC in the open. They are now down to +650 and still have some value in that market based on my power ratings, but there are other ways to play it if you’d like to get a higher number.
San Francisco is now -110 to win the NFC and is a clear favorite. If you look over to the exact Super Bowl matchup on DraftKings.com, you can get 13-1 for the Bills to have the 49ers, which is slightly better than the parlay.
Make sure you are looking at all available markets if you are playing futures. You can often get a better price the lower the limits are available on a market.
Season Long Bets Recap
Win Totals:
Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)
Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)
Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)
Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)
Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)
Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)
NFC to win the Super Bowl -125 for 3 units (after Week 12)
