NFL Week 16 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
The NFL playoffs are on the horizon, and to be honest, these last few weeks of the NFL season are my least favorite from a betting perspective because it becomes increasingly difficult to handicap who’s motivated, who’s tanking, who’s resting guys for the playoffs, which coaches are coaching for their jobs, etc.
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As I always say, though, “The numbers are the numbers”, and we’re going to ride with my T Shoe Index on top of the obvious disclaimer that you’ve got to pay attention to the aforementioned motivational aspect. A quick power rating update before we get to the bets, since I haven’t provided one in the last few weeks; the 49ers are now 1.5 points ahead of No. 2, Baltimore, heading into that clash on Christmas. Washington, on the flip side, is in dead last by nearly a full point over the Giants. Now, let’s get to the bets:
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups | Week 16 Hub | Expert NFL Picks
Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills (-12.5), O/U 44
The Chargers have cleaned house after an embarrassing loss to the Raiders last week, to put it politely. QB Justin Herbert is out, and the Bills are rolling right now. Could the Bills win this game by four scores? Surely. But I think 12.5 is good value on top of the mother of all bounceback spots for LA in a game that TSI projects Bills -3.5 (with healthy Herbert, so more like 7.5). The Bills are up to #4 in my power ratings, while the Chargers are sitting at #19. Matchup-wise, this game features the #5 Bills offense against the #29 Chargers defense, and the #11 LA offense against the #4 defense of Buffalo. I point this out to show the distinction between rankings and ratings; rankings are the order in which teams are rated, whereas the rating is the nuanced difference between each ordinal ranking. Translation: teams can be ranked really far apart but be relatively close in terms of rating, which is the most important aspect of betting from a numbers perspective.
Pick: Chargers +12.5 (Play to +10.5)
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions (-3), O/U 47
The Lions have been a difficult team to handicap this year because they’ve been pretty inconsistent, with both a really high ceiling and a really low floor. The Vikings are coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Jake Browning and the Bengals, and desperately need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. TSI projects the Vikings as 1 point favorites, so getting a field goal here, combined with the motivational factor, makes this a best bet for me. The Lions have the #4 offense but just the #26 defense, whereas the Vikings have the #21 offense but #5 defense in my ratings, so this is a matchup of good-on-good. I like the divisional home dog getting a field goal here.
Pick: Vikings +3 (-110) (Play to +3, -132)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
