Happy New Year!
Entering Week 17, NFL underdogs and unders continue to be a smart season-long bet. Dogs have gone 130-106 ATS (55%), led by "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more 88-57 ATS (61%) and divisional dogs 44-29 ATS (60%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 134-106 (56%). Outdoor divisional unders are 33-15 (69%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 49-25 (66%). When the total falls at least a half point the under is 76-50 (60%).
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With these trends in mind, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s Week 17 action…
1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43) at Houston Texans
The Jags (7-8) are 5-2 over their last seven games and just brushed aside the Jets 19-3, easily winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (2-12-1) own the worst record in the NFL but just snapped a nine-game losing skid with a 19-14 win over the Titans, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Jacksonville listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy with and cover for the Jags. However, despite receiving 77% of bets we’ve seen Jacksonville fall from -4.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Texans, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. The Texans are receiving 23% of bets but 52% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Divisional dogs are 44-29 ATS (60%) this season. If both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, the dog is 49-28 ATS (64%) this season. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43. When the total falls at least a half point in a divisional game the under is 26-12 (68%).
1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5, 41)
The Dolphins (8-7) have lost four straight games and just fell to the Packers 26-20, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Patriots (7-8) have lost four of their last five and just fell to the Bengals 22-18, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a short 2-point road favorite. We’ve seen wiseguys hammer the Patriots, flipping New England to a 2.5-point home favorite. This line movement was due in large part to the news that Dolphins starting QB Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out due to a concussion, with backup Teddy Bridgewater set to start in his place. The Patriots are only receiving 45% of bets, signaling sharp contrarian value in a "dog to favorite" line move spot. The Patriots are -145 on the moneyline. Pros expect a low scoring game as the total has fallen from 43.5 to 41. These are two of the slowest teams in terms of pace of play, with Miami ranked 30th and New England 27th. Outdoor divisional unders are 33-15 (69%). The forecast calls for low 50s with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 49-25 (66%). New England is 9-6 to the under, including 5-2 to the under at home.
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 35)
The Steelers (7-8) have won four of their last five games and just edged the Raiders 13-10, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens (10-5) have won three of their last four games and just dismissed the Falcons 17-9, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which team to back. However, despite these even percentages we’ve seen Baltimore fall from -4 to -2.5. Some books are even down to -2. This signals pro money grabbing the points with the Steelers. This move coincided with the news that Tyler Huntley would once again start at quarterback on place of the injured Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh is receiving 50% of bets but 64% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Road divisional dogs are 28-18 ATS (61%) this season. Primetime dogs are 29-22 ATS (57%). Mike Tomlin is 50-27 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. Pittsburgh is also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), going through multiple key numbers. Sharps also hit the under, dropping the total from 36.5 to 35. Primetime unders are 33-18 (65%). Outdoor divisional unders are 33-15 (69%). Baltimore is 11-4 to the under, including 6-1 to the under at home.
