NFL Week 3 Best Bets and Predictions:

What a wild week it was in the NFL! Just last week, I highlighted the quarterback who looked like a shell of themselves in Week 1, and that was, well, an overreaction. Burrow, Cousins, and Rodgers all looked significantly better in Week 2, with two of the three winning and Burrow losing a tough game to the Chiefs.

The dogs were barking in Week 2, with five times favored by 5 or more points losing outright, but each was different.

 

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The Saints, who we will discuss shortly, crushed the Cowboys and looked like the better team. The Bucs beat the Lions, but I would not say the Bucs were the better team in that spot; the Lions had seven red zone opportunities and could not execute when it mattered the most. The Ravens just straight-up gave the game away. All losses are not created equal in Power Ratings, even though each is in the standings.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: New Orleans Saints      

It wasn’t a question of who, but how much when it came to move them up. The Saints were dominant for the second straight week, this time against a real team. While there are quite a few highlights to choose from, the offensive line needs to get their flowers. This was a group that was largely ranked in the bottom third of the league across the board coming into the year and they protected Carr well against an above-average pass rush in Dallas.

I still have reservations about the defense and what to expect from a below-average head coach when they are not up 20 points, but that is for another day. Derek Carr led scoring drives on the first 15 drives of the season for an offense that looks close to unstoppable.

This week will be a big test in a date with Philadelphia at home. The line has already moved 6 points, and New Orleans is now sitting at a 3-point favorite.

Move them down: Indianapolis Colts

I take no pleasure in writing this paragraph since I bet the Colts +325 to win the division, but that is going to be a tall, tall task. Anthony Richardson has been dynamic about 25% of the time; the other 75% has just been a mess. If that ratio was flipped or at least 50/50, then this Colts offense would be explosive. That still has the potential to work itself out.

Gus Bradley, on the other hand, is what he is. That was one of the worst defensive gameplans in the history of the NFL on Sunday. You have Malik Willis, who can’t throw the ball five yards down the field, and yet you allow over 261 yards rushing in the game. There should have been 9 in the box every play until Willis proved he could beat you.

Before the season, I knew 0-2 was a possible start. You had Houston and Green Bay on the road after all, but this 0-2 looks a whole lot worse with Sunday’s loss.

Early Week 3 NFL Best Bets:

Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts

Let’s jump in on an Under play before this one gets off to the races and hits 42. The Bears head on the road to take on the Colts in an early game on Sunday. You’ve got a Bears team that is banged up going on the road of the second straight game, taking on a team that will focus on running the football. That is all the recipe you need for an Under game. This opened at 44.5/45 and took money to the Under right away, but there is still a 43.5 sitting on the board at FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s snap that up before it’s gone.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Bears/Colts Under 43.5

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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