NFL Lookahead Lines:

I’ll start by recapping Week 3 results and refreshing my early looks for Week 4.

In theory, grabbing the Pats +7 vs. the Pats seemed like a good idea. The number closed 6/6.5, but New England had no chance at the Jets.

 

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Deshaun Watson and the Browns were favored by too many points hosting the Giants. Unfortunately, I couldn’t pull the trigger on the G-Men. 

Colts moneyline (-135) cashed vs. the Bears but the lookahead number was essentially the same as the closing number. 

I also thought the Chiefs could close higher than the lookahead number (-4) at the Falcons. Dead wrong, but somehow Kansas City still covered. 

Here is what I have for Week 4:

Steelers moneyline +108 at Indy. Pittsburgh is now as high as -130 in the market. I didn’t understand how the Colts were favored by the same amount hosting Chicago as they were against Pittsburgh. 

Baltimore played in a high-scoring game where the defense let them down once again in the fourth quarter. Buffalo appears to be a machine on offense at this point. I thought 45.5 was too short for a total. The number has ticked up to 46.5. Still too short in my opinion, so I bet it again.

I wrote that the Eagles/Bucs numbers could flip (making Tampa the favorite) if chalk prevailed in Week 3. The Saints were favored vs. Philly, and the Bucs were favored vs. Denver. Alas, both teams lost, and the Eagles remain the Week 4 road favorite. 

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The following are current Week 5 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:

Week 5 Thursday Night Football

  • Buccaneers at Falcons (-3, 44)

Week 5 Sunday NFL Games

  • Jets (-1.5, 42.5) vs. Vikings (London)
  • Colts at Jaguars (-2.5, 46)
  • Bills at Texans (-1, 47)
  • Ravens (-1, 47) at Bengals
  • Panthers at Bears (-4, 42)
  • Dolphins at Patriots (-2, 36.5)
  • Browns at Commanders (-1, 42.5)
  • Cardinals at 49ers (-7, 47.5)
  • Raiders at Broncos (-1, 39.5)
  • Packers (-3, 46) at Rams
  • Giants at Seahawks (-6, 42)

Week 5 Sunday Night Football

  • Cowboys (-1, 42) at Steelers

Week 5 Monday Night Football

  • Saints at Chiefs (-6.5, 45)

Usually, the NFL season gets to breathe for longer than 2-3 weeks before countless injuries start to mount. That doesn’t appear to be the case in 2024 so I’m treading lightly at this point. Exhibit A would be Miami at New England. Is Tyler Huntley starting at QB for the Dolphins? If so, I’ll gladly take them plus the points right now. If not it’s a hard pass. Will the Buccaneers or Falcons be healthy for their Thursday night clash? How banged up will the 49ers be next week? 

I could go on and on. Here is what I think I know: Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense is legit. Their defense? Not so much. Cleveland should be able to score despite Deshaun Watson owning the worst EPA per dropback over the first three weeks of the season for any Browns QB since at least the year 2000. 42.5 is too low of a total for a Commanders game at this point of the season. 

The Cowboys play this Thursday, so they’ll have extra rest when they play at the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. But should Dallas really be favored at Pittsburgh?

Other Week 5 thoughts

– Should Jacksonville be favored vs. the Colts? Has the team quit on their coach? Is Trevor Lawrence terrible? 

– Buffalo is now the highest-rated team by more than one set of power ratings. They have a war with Baltimore this week. The Texans might slaughter the Jaguars. But should Houston be favored over the Bills?

– Too much of a move in London? The Jets were -3.5 in the summer vs. the Vikings. VSiN’s Steve Makinen now has Minnesota ranked ninth in his power ratings. I’ve seen others with the Vikes in the Top 5!

For all of our NFL Week 4 content, click here.

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