Now that we have five weeks in the books, it’s imperative to start looking both forward and back to check the travel situations and situational spots for each team when handicapping a game. We saw Buffalo in a near-impossible spot last week laying 5, coming off a very emotional win versus a division rival, and having to travel across the pond to take on a team who was waiting for them and had adjusted to a new time zone. With the international games, travel schedule matters.
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Just look at the Ravens this week, who head to London, and how they decided to travel on Monday. This will be their second London game as an organization and, after being blown out in the first game while traveling on a Friday, the Ravens wanted to have extra time to adjust to the surroundings. When a team makes that large of a shift in strategy after a single data point, it speaks volumes.
Before we jump into the move them up/move them down section, I wanted to call out that this week saw the least adjustments to my power rankings in almost three years. There were very few teams that, injuries notwithstanding, moved more than 0.5 points in any direction. Also, I wanted to call out the Ravens vs. Steelers game specifically. That was the faultiest final I have recorded in the season. If you have not watched the game, I would highly recommend doing so. Drops dominated the storyline and were the main reason the Ravens did not win and cover. I adjusted the Steelers down 0.5 despite the win and cover.
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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games on Sunday:
Move them up: Philadelphia Eagles
This week’s win over the Rams was end-to-end domination. The final score of 23-14 does not speak to how much the Eagles were in control of this game from whistle to whistle. They outgained the Rams 454-249 and controlled the time of possession 37:55 to 22:05. This was the return of the 2022 Eagles.
The market has been lower on Philadelphia than I expected this year, with money coming in against them in road tilts vs. the Bucs and Rams, and it has been dead wrong in both cases. I have talked about how losing both the OC and DC in the offseason would affect this team early in the season, but once they get in the groove, expect last year’s Eagles. We are now at that point. The secondary can still improve, but the DL came to play this week, and the offensive is humming once again.
Move them down: New England Patriots
Congratulations, Patriots. You were the only team to be adjusted 1.5 or more points in my rankings, and it was not in the direction that you wanted to move. This team is officially a mess from top to bottom. Bringing in Bill O’Brien as the offensive coordinator has been a disaster. Mac Jones has regressed once again, but absolutely no one is open for him down the field, and Rhamondre Stephenson is not the aggressive, punishing running back we saw last year.
Now with the injury bug hitting the defense, the stop unit is a shell of itself as well. It was not a great sign to begin with that your rookie cornerback was your second-best player, but now with Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez out, the lack of playmakers is apparent on that side of the ball. Belichick said they need to start over in his presser after the game, and he is dead on. Unfortunately, that is going to take an offseason and roster retooling to take effect, and we are months from that opportunity.
Early Week 6 Plays:
Another nice week for the early play, getting 1.5 points in line value and hitting, moving the weekly record to 3-1 with closing line value in three of the four weeks. This week, let’s keep it rolling with another total.
Detroit heads south to take on a Tampa team who is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for the Lions’ offense. The game opened at 45 and has taken some money to the under, currently sitting at 44.5. That is still too high. Detroit’s offense has been significantly less effective on the road, specifically when they are outside of a dome, over the last two years, and the defense has played well enough recently to be able to hold this game under. Tampa will be much healthier on the defensive side of the ball with the extra rest, and we’ve got key pieces on the Lions’ offense that may miss this game. I’ve got the total at 42.5, so there is plenty of opportunity for this line to continue to fall.
The bet: Lions / Bucs Under 44.5
MVP Market:
Time for our first MVP bet of the season! I have added a Jalen Hurts +700 ticket to the account today. Last week, I mentioned playing him if you could find a 10-1 number available, but after moving the Eagles up in the power rankings and seeing the added efficiency on offense, now is the time. We saw money come in on both Purdy (+700) and McCaffery (+1500) again this week after the domination of the Cowboys, which allowed this Hurts number to be playable. The timing is right now as well. The Eagles’ next four games are at Jets, vs. Dolphins (Sunday night), at Commanders, and vs. Cowboys. You have two marquee games, both at home, and two winnable road games. If Philly rips off four in a row, he will be the favorite heading into the bye. The schedule after the bye is tough, but it creates opportunities for a player like Hurts to distance himself. and the 49ers game is at home which is a positive as well.
Division Bets / Win Totals:
It has been nice by the Arizona Cardinals thus far, but the clock has struck midnight. With a multi-week injury to James Conner and a brutal stretch upcoming, it’s time to get in on the under 4.5 wins. When you look through the rest of the schedule, there are two coin-flip games left, vs. the Falcons and at Bears. Everything else will be the Cardinals as dogs of four or more. They have the Rams twice, the Seahawks twice and the 49ers left in the division. Those should all be losses, and trips to the Browns, Eagles and Steelers do not look winnable with the way this team is constructed. Now is the time to take this under 4.5. After this upcoming three-game stretch that should fall to 3.5.
The Bet: Cardinals u4.5 wins
Season Long Bets Recap:
Win Totals:
Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)
Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)
Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)
Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)
Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)
