Week 6 was the week of the Under! Heading into Monday night, just two games went Over this week. When you dive into the stats, there were a handful of games that had enough yards to project to the total going Over, but it was the red zone where Overs went to die.
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Baltimore kicked five field goals and was 1 for 6 in the red zone, New Orleans had three drives of nine plus plays that resulted in zero points (two missed FGs and a red zone INT), and the Falcons put up over 400 yards of total offense while managing just 16 points with two red zone INTs. Through six weeks, NFL teams are converting a red zone trip into a touchdown just 53.3% of the time. That’s the lowest in 12 years. If that percentage does not tick up, the Under will keep on cashing.
Once again, not a massive movement week in the power rankings. After a jump up, the Eagles fell back, and the loss of Lane Johnson is massive for them. The 49ers mainly got an injury downgrade, but depending on the status of the three starters they lost in that game, they may end up with just a slight downgrade before a snap of the football. The Ravens were tempting to move up, but that was a sleepy Titans team due to the travel decisions, and the red zone play calling from Baltimore was atrocious.
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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games on Sunday:
Move them up: Detroit Lions
Let’s start here, I am not a believer in this Lions team just yet. They got a coin-flip win vs. the Chiefs and lost to the Seahawks in their only two real tests of the season. Wins over Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay do not blow my socks off and make this a Super Bowl contender, but at this point, I have to upgrade them. They have covered four straight since the loss to the Seahawks, and none of those were ever really in doubt. They are at the Ravens this week, and prior to the adjustment, my numbers had the Ravens -4.5. That line opened Ravens -2.5 and has been bet out to 3. I expect there to be a battle in this market all week, but doubt we ever see a -3.5 flash. Neither team has a good spot here (Baltimore returning from London and Detroit playing back-to-back road games) so this will be a measuring stick game for the Lions in my eyes. If they can pull out a win in Baltimore, I will have to give in and move them up to where the market has them rated.
Move them down: Indianapolis Colts
Please do not let me bet the Colts again anytime soon. Minshew’s magic has run out. That Jags game was a good spot for him to have success through the air, and he sure did, except it was to the wrong team. Two of his three interceptions were thrown straight to Jacksonville defenders and stunted any chance of a backdoor cover. The pass rush that was second in the league after three weeks now can be found on the back of a milk carton, and there is not a quick fix in sight. The schedule should allow them to be competitive, but this is not a team I will be running to the window to bet.
Early Week 4 Plays
Another nice week for the early play, getting 2 points in line value and hitting, moving the weekly record to 4-1.
We are going back to the well on the Under again this week. We’re targeting the Chargers vs. Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. This game opened 51.5 and has ticked down to 51 since release. It is still 3 points higher than I expected. The market still has not caught up to the Chiefs as an Under team with a very good defense and an offense that has not hit its stride yet. The Chargers come into the game off a Monday night tilt vs. the Cowboys and will have a short week. Let’s take the 51 while it is still available, although I would play this under as low as 49.5.
The bet: Chargers / Chiefs u51
MVP Market
The addition of Hurts to our card could not have come at a better time, and then he played. With a great matchup vs. the Jets, Hurts had a chance to enter Week 7 as the favorite after every other favorite faltered except Tua, but a lackluster effort means we are still sitting at +700 today. With Tua and Mahomes currently the favorites, I still like the position, but man it would have been nice to see that number fall to +400 just a week after we bet it.
Division Bets / Win Totals
We took an Under, last week and we are headed right back again this week, but this time, let’s fade the Denver Broncos. Currently sitting at 1-5, it looks like it’s time to blow this team up, and the front office has already started to make moves to do so. They moved off two edge rushers last week, and rumors are swirling that the wide receivers are next. Payton signed a 10-year deal and wants his quarterback of the future now, so it’s time to go into tank mode.
On top of the narrative, this team is plain bad, specifically the defense, and has a rough schedule. The only game they may be favored in for the rest of the season is home vs. the Patriots on December 24th. They do have coin-flip games vs the Packers, Vikings and Raiders, but with a total at 4.5, they would need to win all three of those and beat the Pats to send this Over. Not going to happen.
The Bet: Broncos u4.5 wins +100
Season Long Bets Recap
Win Totals:
Titans u6.5 (bet after Week 1)
Jags +125 to win the AFC South (bet after Week 3)
Chargers to miss the playoffs -115 (bet after Week 4)
Jalen Hurts MVP +700 (after Week 5)
Cardinals u4.5 Wins (after Week 5)
Broncos u4.5 Wins +100 (after Week 6)
