NFL Survivor Picks

For those still alive and well in Survivor contests, it has been a long and windy road. Avoiding the landmines of big favorites every week has been an exhausting process, but your entries now have a whole heck of a lot more equity than they did at the beginning because the pool has gotten a whole lot smaller.

We’ve got some ample favorites this week, which hasn’t been a good thing thus far in 2024, but these are still teams with expectations and high win probabilities. There’s been a major element of luck involved to stay alive because the team with the highest implied probability of winning has lost so much. It makes it really difficult to trust anybody. That said, numbers, percentages, and even feel are all part of the decision-making process.

 

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Check out the helpful NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools over at PoolGenius, which will be a tremendous help to you moving forward now that so much equity has been gained if you are still alive.

Week 6 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Houston Texans (-6.5) over New England Patriots

A similar tale here, though Drake Maye will get his first career NFL start, which is a lot different than a veteran like Dalton in a comparable underdog role. The Texans seem to be a bit more banged up than the Falcons, especially with the absence of Nico Collins, and the Patriots defense has actually played well.

Still, you’ve got Maye against a very talented defense with a great defensive mind in DeMeco Ryans at the helm and a Texans crew that has found a way in four of their five games against better opponents than New England. This will be the first outdoor game for Houston on the road, after playing in Indy and Minny to begin the year. I guess that’s a concern with a mild chance of rain in the forecast.

The tricky thing with Houston is they won’t be favored by this size (barring injury) until probably November 24 against Tennessee. It’s the old use ‘em or hold ‘em question that all Survivor players face.

The Texans are 71% to win per PoolGenius.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) over Washington Commanders

Even though the Ravens are favored by a number on par with the Texans and Falcons, this one feels scarier because of what Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense has been able to achieve. However, it also speaks to how respected Baltimore is from a power ratings standpoint by oddsmakers and influential bettors that we really haven’t seen this line move down much at all.

After starting the season with two close losses that could’ve gone either way, the Ravens have won three in a row. Have they all been impressive? Absolutely not. They probably should have lost in OT to the Bengals last week if Zac Taylor knew how to call plays and let the Cowboys back into what should have been a rout. And , yet, PoolGenius lists them at 71% to win and they’re among the biggest favorites on the board against a very hot, very popular Commanders crew.

Not for nothing, it is worth noting that the Ravens are second in EPA/play (Commanders are No. 1) on offense and 22nd in EPA/play on defense because of their pass defense. They are third in Rush EPA. So, a game where Daniels projects to have success does feel worrisome enough to hold off on Baltimore if you still have them available.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over Carolina Panthers

Road chalk, even as heavy as this, is always going to give me some pause. Last year, when my partner Marc Goldberg (Spooky Express) and I made it down to the final 13, we never took a road team. That’s not to say that they can’t win. And that’s not to say that they’ll never be the best option of the week. But, there are some clear pitfalls.

That being said, if you did flip home-field advantage here, the Falcons would be the biggest favorite of the week or close to it, as the Browns/Eagles line continues to rise. People viewed the Falcons in high regard coming into the season and it feels like they’re playing up towards that potential now. The Panthers got a spark with Andy Dalton, but they’ve lost two in a row and allowed 70 points. No matter what the Red Rifle does, getting the team into the mid-to-upper 30s is a tall task, if that’s what needs to happen.

The Falcons don’t play Carolina at home until Week 18, so holding them back may be unwise, especially because they don’t play the Giants at home until Week 16.

PoolGenius lists the Falcons at 67% win probability.

NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) over Cleveland Browns

If the success of the biggest underdogs of the week is going to end, why not the Browns against the Eagles? Cleveland stinks. To high heaven. That’s the PG version of what I, as a Browns fan, have been saying about this team. Ownership is holding up a QB change because they are unwilling to admit the Titanic-level sunken cost that Deshaun Watson is. So, Kevin Stefanski has to put on a brave face and try to keep the team from organizing a mutiny.

The Eagles have their own problems named Nick Sirianni, but they are coming off of a bye and maybe that was enough to figure some things out. The Eagles are the biggest favorite of the week and it has only grown because of Cleveland’s lengthy injury report and the fact that Watson is still starting.

Going with the “obvious” choice hasn’t worked out all that well this season. However, the Eagles don’t play the Giants at home until Week 18 and have the Panthers at home in early December, where who knows if you’ll still be alive in the contest or if the contest will even still be going depending on the size of your pool and who is left.

You could save Philly for Week 9 at home against Jacksonville, but you also have the Bills at home against the Dolphins (maybe Tua’s back, maybe he isn’t), the Ravens at home against the Broncos, and the Bengals at home against the Raiders. You probably still have Cincinnati left because if you don’t, you got knocked out in Week 1 or Week 3.

PoolGenius has a probability on Philly of 78% and they should beat the hapless Browns and their deadbeat QB.

Survivor Week 6 Pick: Eagles

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