NFL Week 9 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
I mentioned last week how unpredictable some of these NFL teams have been from a spread perspective; I did not anticipate that meant the Chiefs were going to lose outright by double digits to the Broncos, who at the time, were power rated dead last in the NFL. Flu bug or not, that was a shocking result. The Bengals seemed to have awakened from their hibernation now that Joe Burrow looks healthy and mobile again, going into the Bay and putting 31 points on the 49ers defense – who got bolstered at the trade deadline this week by acquiring Nick Bosa’s former Ohio State teammate, Chase Young.
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I’m anxious to see which team we left for dead shows life this week, and conversely, which team we think highly of is going to lay an egg. Let’s see what my T Shoe Index indicates are the best value bets this week.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs Buffalo Bills, O/U 49.5
I mentioned the Bengals in the intro, and they’ve really come alive the last couple of weeks as Joe Burrow’s calf seems to be 100% after looking like a shell of himself early in the season. The Bills, meanwhile, have been inconsistent this year but still have top 5 units on both sides of the ball in my numbers. That said, I think this total is too high, as TSI only projects 43.5 points here, so we’re getting value on this under. Coupled with the fact that primetime unders are now 20-7 in the last 27 games, I’m going to play the numbers here and rely on a couple of stingy defenses to stymie some offenses capable of hanging big numbers. In these teams’ last 10 combined games this season, the total has only gone over this 49.5 number three times, and totals of 49.5 or higher have gone under 7 out of 9 games this season.
Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48)
Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts (-2.5), O/U 44
When I saw this total, the first thing I checked was the weather because I project this game with a total of 51.5. No weather issues expected, so I’m going to pull the trigger on an over bet, and fade two defenses that my numbers have in the bottom six of the NFL. The Colts’ last 3 games have combined for 65, 77 and 57 points, while two of the last three Panthers’ games have gone for 63 and 66 points. These teams have decided that defense is optional and I am here for it.
Pick: Over 44 (Play to 45)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
