NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Week 9 best bets:

 

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Detroit Lions (-2.5; 47.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Lions continue to be the favorite in the NFC, and last week’s 52-14 victory over Tennessee did nothing to stop the market’s enthusiasm. However, they are at the top of the market here and some of the results have been deceiving.

Take last week, for example. Detroit was not only outgained 416-225, but allowed Tennessee, who could not move the ball on anyone, to gain 416 yards. The Lions offense scored four touchdowns on short fields due to Titans turnovers and kick returns, plus added a 90-yard punt return touchdown.

Detroit has also had victories over the last month against Seattle and Dallas defenses that were decimated by injuries at the time.

The Lions passed their first divisional road test two weeks ago in Minnesota, but Green Bay is a different test, especially for Jared Goff. Goff is playing his first outdoor game of the season. We know how good he is indoors (41-18 ATS), but is only .500 outdoors (36-35-2 ATS) for his career and will have some rain and wind to deal with at Lambeau on Sunday. He will also be dealing with the Packers defense that has forced 19 turnovers in eight games under new DC Jeff Hafley.

Jordan Love is still listed as questionable, and it could be Malik Willis under center. If so, Willis has actually been good in all three games he has played this year and leads the league in Adjusted EPA/play amongst QBs. The Lions’ defense clearly misses Aidan Hutchinson and will also be without Josh Paschal and Mekhi Wingo on the DL, which is bad news against a Top 5 DVOA Offense from Green Bay.

Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog and has had great game plans all year offensively no matter who has played QB.

This is a good spot to play against a good Lions team that is just a bit overpriced.

Several shops still have GB +3 with some juice, so shop around.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +3 (-118)

TEASER OF THE WEEK
Browns +7.5/Bengals -1

TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Patriots/Titans UNDER 38

BEST OF THE REST
Cowboys +3.5 (-118) at Falcons
Seahawks +1.5 vs. Rams
Cardinals -1 vs. Bears
Vikings -3 (-120) 1st H vs. Colts

For more NFL Week 9 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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