NFL Week 9:

Another week in the NFL is just about in the books, as 30 of the league’s 32 teams have turned the page to Week 9. We’ll have one game on Halloween to bid adieu to October and the rest of the action will be in November. This is already the midpoint of the season, which is crazy to consider, especially when you think about how long it took for these teams to develop some consistency.

Some still haven’t found it and that is one of the many things that makes this league so compelling. We certainly had a lot of must-see TV in Week 8, as every early game but two wound up being close and we had a walk-off Hail Mary in the 4 p.m. window. Can’t wait to see what Week 9 has in store.

 

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Let’s look at what the early lines look like for Week 9.

Here is the Week 9 NFL Odds Report:

Houston Texans (-1, 43.5) at New York Jets

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

Jets fans may want to take their kids out Trick-or-Treating instead of watching on Thursday. The season hit a new low in Week 8 with the loss to the Patriots, as the Jets fell to 2-6 and didn’t really show any positive signs. The Texans survived against the rival Colts and this is a rather poor spot for Houston with the long travel off a division game, but an argument can be made that that is the only thing for Jets fans to hang their hats on. Even the defense isn’t playing all that well. The Jets were favored on the lookahead line and many books are still showing pick ‘em here, but I think Houston definitely goes off favored.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3, 39)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Drake Maye left with a concussion in New England’s win over the Jets, so we’ll see how he progresses throughout the week. Many Titans fans may have concussions from banging their heads against the wall from watching this team, as the Lions won 52-14 in a game that was actually 14-14 at one point. The Titans are bad in all three facets of the game and bad enough that they’re basically power-rated about equal to the Patriots based on this number.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 40.5) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

It was only one game, but a collective weight was lifted off of the Browns organization on Sunday, albeit while playing with heavy hearts. Voice of the Browns Jim Donovan passed away following a long battle with leukemia and Browns fans ached to hear his call of what was a huge win over the Ravens. Jameis Winston gave us the full Jameis Winston experience with no less than seven throws that should have been picked, but he also threw for 300 yards, something Deshaun Watson never did for Cleveland.

The Chargers are a really solid football team and deserve to be the favorite, but this line also deserved an adjustment and got one, moving from 4.5 on the lookahead to 2.5. Keep an eye on the injured Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, as he left on a cart and was kept overnight for evaluation. I can’t imagine he plays and he’s Cleveland’s best defender by far, especially against the run. Denzel Ward probably also misses next week with a concussion, his sixth in six years.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 45) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Saints look awful right now and some shops have them a seven-point favorite against the Panthers. Carolina went back to Bryce Young and all looked well for a drive, but then it all fell apart and they were comfortably beaten by the Broncos. New Orleans beat Carolina 47-10 in the season opener. But, during this current six-game skid, the Saints have been outscored 177-94. Derek Carr may be back this week, though, and we will see this line increase if he looks good throughout the week in practice.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Dolphins offense didn’t look like what we expected coming into the season, but they sure looked a lot closer than what we saw without Tua Tagovailoa. And yet, they still lost to the Cardinals to drop to 2-5. The Dolphins defense, which had played well in Tua’s absence gave up 6.3 yards per play to Arizona and couldn’t get a stop over the game-winning five-minute drive. It was an objectively bad loss for Miami, not because of the opponent, but because they led by nine in the fourth quarter.

The Bills kept chugging right along with an impressive win over the Seahawks. As a result, this line was bumped up a bit from the lookahead number of 5.5. Will this one touch 7? We’ll have to wait and see, but my vote is no. Most books are actually 6 here, as DraftKings had the highest line in the market on Sunday night.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 44.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Ravens went into Sunday hurt and left Sunday hurt even more. With Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins out, Baltimore lost Brent Urban and Michael Pierce during the loss to Cleveland. This is still a top-tier team and it has been clear on a weekly basis how much the oddsmakers like them based on their lines. That said, this one did come down from the early lookahead number that was as high as 10 and mostly settled in at 9.5. Teaser exposure for Baltimore will be a big story if we hold in that 7.5 to 8.5 range.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

You really have to wonder what the Bengals’ mindset is at this point. They got humbled at home by the Eagles as a short favorite in Week 8. They’ve been better than a 3-5 team on offense, but the defense is awful. The AFC Wild Card bubble is a joke at present, so the Bengals are still in a decent spot, especially as a big favorite here, but they’ve already lost twice as a big favorite. The Raiders objectively stink, despite getting in the back door against the Chiefs.

This is as must-win as it gets for Cincy with a short-week trip to Baltimore on deck before the half-bye. But, the Bengals have been allergic to expectations here. This line was adjusted down from the lookahead after Cincy’s showing, moving from 9.5 to as low as 7.5.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 45.5)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory to say the least. The offensive lineman running play was one of the most hilarious play calls of all-time, but the Bears overcame that to take a late lead before the Commanders hit a walk-off Hail Mary. The Bears are a poorly-coached team. They are a good and talented team. And then there’s the Cardinals, who are also low-key talented and pretty well-coached.

I agree with the sentiment here that the Bears are a neutral-site favorite, but I also agree with favoring Arizona here. This line opened Bears -1 or -1.5 in the lookahead markets.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 47.5)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

For the first time this season, the Eagles looked like the Eagles we thought they’d be. They outgained the Bengals by nearly two yards per play to improve to 5-2. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were feisty against the Packers, but lost again, turning up the heat on Doug Pederson. The bye week is still far away, but the Jaguars will be an underdog in all three games and sitting there at 2-9 is a very realistic possibility.

Things look bleak. And the Eagles are maybe finding their stride? If this one hangs Eagles 7.5 or so like it is at DraftKings and could go to in other spots, they’ll be a popular teaser play with the Ravens.

Los Angeles Rams (-1, 48) at Seattle Seahawks

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

DraftKings was the only market to have the Rams favored as of Sunday night, as everybody else had -1 or -1.5 the other way. I have to say – the Rams looked way better with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, as we expected, and those two had a few extra days to keep healing. The Seahawks looked so disinterested and sloppy against the Bills. It’s entirely possible that the Bills, who are going to lock up the AFC East before people start Christmas shopping, are just that good, but the Seahawks have a Geno Smith problem, among other things.

I’m curious to see where this line goes, but I can’t disagree with the notion that they should be favored.

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 48.5) at Green Bay Packers

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

We’ll get Jared Goff outdoors, which is going to be justification for a Packers bet in some people’s minds right off the rip. But, we may also get a Packers team with Malik Willis at QB instead of Jordan Love.

We should have some clarity on Love’s groin injury on Monday. At that point, the line will adjust accordingly.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 46)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Sunday Night Football features the Colts and Vikings. Minnesota has been one of this season’s biggest surprises and I can’t help but feel like they needed the extra few days after losing to the Rams. Minnesota was in a bad spot off the Lions loss and now can reset a little bit as the schedule tones down in terms of difficulty. Most of the market is 6.5, with DraftKings sitting at 7, so they’re forcing you to pay a bit of a premium on the key number as the week begins.

I will say this – Colts games this season have been decided by 2, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, and 3 points, as they are 4-4. They keep games close, for whatever that’s worth to you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 45.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

I have to say, I’d love to see this line with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans healthy. Even without those two, the Bucs played very admirably in the loss to the Falcons last week. Tampa Bay still had six yards per play and Baker Mayfield spread the ball around to nine different receivers out of 37 completions. Perhaps the Bucs can find a WR prior to the November 5 Trade Deadline.

The Chiefs are 7-0 with a point differential of +50. It has not necessarily been an impressive 7-0, except for a statement win against the 49ers. This line was higher on the lookahead, as I think oddsmakers were as encouraged as I was with TB’s performance missing those two weapons and just as skeptical of KC with the seven-point win. I don’t think this line is done coming down.

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