Simulating the 17-game NFL Schedule by Power Ratings

As always, the annual NFL schedule release for the 2024 season was met with a ton of instant reaction, followed by more in-depth analysis. Typically, this is a common time for bettors to be putting down their money on season win-total wagers. Now that we have the schedule, know the offseason free agent signings, and have taken in the draft results, this is the time of the year I finalize my offseason power ratings. I then run them against the schedule, seeing how each team’s slate projects out in terms of wins and losses. As bettors, we’re looking for every edge we can, and by analyzing every game, we can potentially find things that oddsmakers setting the season-win total props may have missed or overvalued.

This year’s NFL schedule again features 17 games for each team, an odd number that I am still having trouble getting used to. Hopefully after a few years of 17-game slates, bettors are no longer getting tripped up when analyzing the season-win props. However, running power ratings against the full schedule always helps eliminate any confusion.

 

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Bettors can pretty much get in on the season-win wagers at any of their favorite establishments right now, but for this particular piece, we will be comparing my projections against the numbers set by our friends over at DraftKings. If you’re a savvy bettor who prides yourself on shopping for and jumping on the best number available, you will be able to find differences up to 0.5 wins or more or variations on money lines associated with the prop at other locales. One of the things I love about the DK offering is that bettors can opt for tiered options on their win total props. For instance, if a team’s set -110/-110 number is 8.5 wins, you can also bet them at 4.5, 6.5, 10.5, etc.

In this exercise, I have simulated the 2024 schedules for each team using their actual opponents and my latest power ratings, including the team-specific home and road field ratings. I should note that my current NFL home-field advantage ratings settled at about 1.75 points at the conclusion of last season, and I have kept them at this point heading into 2024. You’ll see the standings on the chart below, followed by a team-by-team list of the opponents and projected point spreads. Use these numbers to bet the season win totals or any “games of the year” that have been released by books.

I officially updated my power ratings earlier this week. You will see that besides the big jump for the Jets due to the projected healthy return of QB Aaron Rodgers, I have also noticeably bumped up the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders, mostly due to offseason transactions those franchises made. At the same time, you’ll see that I have made minor downgrades to teams like the Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, and 49ers, teams that come back after repeated playoff disappointments.  Some of this could be considered normalcy adjustments, as from what I’ve learned I from my own odds making experience, there is no greater reset button in the NFL than an offseason that wipes the slate clean from the prior year, both positively & negatively. That said, there are obvious talent differences among the teams that must be accounted for.

For my power ratings, I generally tend to follow the betting markets first and foremost until teams accumulate statistics. I do make adjustments from the betting markets based on certain factors. For one, if you consider the recent strengths of the last four Super Bowl Champion teams, they generally shared a handful of different personnel grouping strengths, and I value them in this particular order:

1) Quarterback Play
2) Ability to pressure opposing passer
3) Defensive back play, shutting down receivers and creating turnovers
4) Protecting the quarterback on offense
5) Skill/volume of offensive playmakers.

When analyzing the results of the schedule simulation, bettors should be able to make their own personal adjustments to the numbers based upon things like how hard the slate is at the outset, grouped road/home games, are game difficulty at home or on the road, and placement of the bye week in the schedule. These are all key variables that can lend to a team having a better or worse season than the oddsmakers project. Also, are there any key player situations that need to be accounted for, such as possible suspensions, or injury questions to key players? Are players that teams counting on really fully healthy?

I’ve also included all of the pre-set neutral games on the schedule. The teams affected are:

2024 neutral games:
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (Brazil)
NY Jets vs. Minnesota (London)
Jacksonville vs. Chicago (London)
Jacksonville vs. New England (London)
NY Giants vs. Carolina (Germany)

Here are a few highlights of the study, and some of my own observations based upon the season win totals offered by DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 29th. Hopefully, you’ve been following along with my weekly pieces over the last month in PSW as I’ve focused on teams expected to improve or decline in 2024 based on some of their statistical characteristics of last year. You’ll find a separate piece next week where I wrap up my NFL offseason work with a group of my favorite season-win total betting choices. Naturally, this week’s schedule piece also plays into those predictions.

Steve’s top 4 teams expected to win more games than prop:
1. NEW ENGLAND – DraftKings: 4.5, Steve’s Projection: 6, Difference: +1.5
2. ARIZONA – DraftKings: 6.5, Steve’s Projection: 7.4, Difference: +0.9
3. LAS VEGAS – DraftKings: 6.5, Steve’s Projection: 7.3, Difference: +0.8
4. DENVER – DraftKings: 5.5, Steve’s Projection: 6.2, Difference: +0.7

Of note, last year, four teams (Indianapolis, Dallas, Green Bay, and LA Rams) were projected to have a +0.7 win difference, and all four easily surpassed their win props.

Steve’s top 4 teams expected to win fewer games than prop:
1. PITTSBURGH – DraftKings: 8.5, Steve’s Projection: 7.6, Difference: -0.9
2. BALTIMORE – DraftKings: 11.5, Steve’s Projection: 10.8, Difference: -0.7
3. DALLAS – DraftKings: 10.5, Steve’s Projection: 9.8, Difference: -0.7

Of last year’s three teams to have a -0.7 win difference or more (Cleveland, LA Chargers, Cincinnati), two went well below their win props, while Cleveland actually exceeded it significantly.

  • According to my figures, Houston plays the league’s toughest schedule, at least as it stands now, based on opponent/home/road breakdown. The Texans ranked just ahead of the Broncos & Steelers in that regard. Not only will they have to face the tough NFC North Division foes, they also get a first-place AFC schedule after winning the South division a year ago. For what it’s worth, the Commanders faced the toughest schedule in this column last season and went on to a terrible 4-13 campaign that led to numerous offseason changes.
  • The league’s easiest schedule belongs to the Falcons, a team looking to make a leap in the NFC after acquiring QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason. A primary reason for the schedule softness is that Atlanta is in the weak NFC South Division. At this point, my power ratings have the Falcons favored in 13 of 17 games, and the biggest underdog line they face is +3.8 points at Philadelphia in week 2. This could be a nice bounce-back season for a team loaded with offensive weaponry. For the record, the next easiest schedules on paper belong to the Saints & Cowboys.
  • Kansas City (11.6) is projected to win the most games of any team in the NFL, followed by San Francisco (11.0), Baltimore (10.8), and the Lions (10.2). There are two other teams among the double-digit win projections. The other projected division winners include Buffalo (10.0), Houston (9.2), Philadelphia (10.0), and Atlanta (9.3).
  • Last year, only one team was projected to win six (6.0) games or less, and that was Arizona (5.1). The Cardinals went on to a 4-13 season. This year, there are two: Carolina (5.8) and New England (6.0). Of course, those win totals would represent improvements for both franchises, each of which starts new eras under rookie head coaches.
  • Assuming the projections play out accurately, the AFC’s top-seeded team for the playoffs would be Kansas City. Baltimore, the #2 would be slotted to take on #7 Miami in the expanded playoff format. Also, in the wildcard playoff round, the #4 Texans would host #5 Cincinnati, and Buffalo would face the Jets in the #3-#6 matchup. For the NFC, the top seed would be San Francisco, while the wildcard matchups would be Detroit-LA Rams, Green Bay-Atlanta, and Philadelphia-Dallas.
  • The largest point spread at the outset of the season is expected to be a November divisional game featuring the Broncos at Kansas City, with the Chiefs shown as 12.4-point favorites. There are seven other games showing double-digit lines, with the majority featuring the Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, or Bills at home. Notably, there were 11 games projected to have double-digit point spreads last year and 36 the year before, so the parity seems to have been enhanced greatly over two years.
  • Of the 267 matchups played at host stadiums, 98 of them are showing point spreads designating road favorites, up from 85 in 2022. The Ravens claim the distinction of being projected as road favorites the most times for the 2024 season, appearing as such in eight road games. On the opposite side of the spectrum are the most frequent home underdogs, those being the Panthers & Patriots, each expected to be in that role eight times.
  • It should be noted that prior to each of the last four seasons, using this same exercise, my power ratings correctly picked eight or nine of the 14 playoff teams each season. Last year I was correct on four of seven AFC teams and four of seven NFC teams.  If I’m able to predict about eight of 14 playoff teams once again, that would leave room for six teams not counted in as of now. As a betting man, my best guess for which teams those would be would include the Chargers, Jaguars, Browns, Commanders, Buccaneers, or Bears.

Other interesting scheduling tidbits:

  • San Francisco faces an interesting 6-game set in weeks 7-13 as it plays four different teams coming out of bye weeks! Kansas City (week 7), Dallas (8), Seattle (11), and Buffalo (13) will all have extra rest when squaring off against the 49ers. Their other two games during that stretch are against Tampa Bay and Green Bay. It should be noted that five of the six opponents during that brutal stretch for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s club are returning playoff teams.
  • There is only one other team that will face three different teams coming out of bye games, although not consecutively. That team is Indianapolis.
  • The Lions claim the distinction of facing the most teams heading into their bye weeks, three.
  • There are four different situations in which teams have a three-game set against opponents averaging a power rating of less than 19.6. Theoretically, these are the easiest three-game stretches in the league this year:

1.      Atlanta: weeks 16-18, 19.17 average opponent PR
2.      NY Jets: weeks 3-5, 19.43
3.      Washington: weeks 7-9, 19.53
4.      Las Vegas: weeks 3-5, 19.57

– On the argument of toughest stretches, there are five different situations in which teams have a 3-game set against opponents averaging a power rating of more than 28.7:

1.      Pittsburgh: weeks 15-17, 29.03 average opponent PR
2.       Denver: weeks 9-11, 28.97      
3.      Las Vegas: weeks 8-11, 28.93
4.      Las Vegas: weeks 7-9, 28.73

Here are the NFL’s 32 teams with their 2024 opponents and power rating lines according to my numbers:

ARIZONA CARDINALS
9/8 – at Buffalo: +8.2
9/15 – LA RAMS: +2.7
9/22 – DETROIT: +3.8
9/29 – WASHINGTON: -3.3
10/6 – at San Francisco: +8.8
10/13 – at Green Bay: +7.1
10/21 – LA CHARGERS: +0.1
10/27 – at Miami: +5.7
11/3 – CHICAGO: -0.8
11/10 – NY JETS: +1.5
11/24 – at Seattle: +1.5
12/1 – at Minnesota: +1
12/8 – SEATTLE: -0.5
12/15 – NEW ENGLAND: -3.9
12/22 – at Carolina: -2.6
12/29 – at LA Rams: +4.3
1/5 – SAN FRANCISCO: +6.6

ATLANTA FALCONS
9/8 – PITTSBURGH: -2.9
9/16 – at Philadelphia: +3.8
9/22 – KANSAS CITY: +4.8
9/29 – NEW ORLEANS: -2.4
10/3 – TAMPA BAY: -1.5
10/13 – at Carolina: -5.1
10/20 – SEATTLE: -3.4
10/27 – at Tampa Bay: +0.2
11/3 – DALLAS: +0.2
11/10 – at New Orleans: -1.1
11/17 – at Denver: -2.3
12/1 – LA CHARGERS: -2
12/8 – at Minnesota: -0.7
12/16 – at Las Vegas: -0.2
12/22 – NY GIANTS: -5.4
12/29 – at Washington: -1.8
1/5 – CAROLINA: -7.3

BALTIMORE RAVENS
9/5 – at Kansas City: +3.2
9/15 – LAS VEGAS: -9.6
9/22 – at Dallas: -0.2
9/29 – BUFFALO: -3.7
10/6 – at Cincinnati: -0.9
10/13 – WASHINGTON: -11.3
10/21 – at Tampa Bay: -4.4
10/27 – at Cleveland: -3.9
11/3 – DENVER: -12.2
11/7 – CINCINNATI: -4.4
11/17 – at Pittsburgh: -4.8
11/25 – at LA Chargers: -3.9
12/1 – PHILADELPHIA: -4.2
12/15 – at NY Giants: -7.2
12/21 – PITTSBURGH: -8
12/25 – at Houston: -1.2
1/5 – CLEVELAND: -7

BUFFALO BILLS
9/8 – ARIZONA: -8.2
9/12 – at Miami: -0.7
9/23 – JACKSONVILLE: -7
9/29 – at Baltimore: +3.7
10/6 – at Houston: +0.3
10/14 – at NY Jets: -1.4
10/20 – TENNESSEE: -9.7
10/27 – at Seattle: -3.3
11/3 – MIAMI: -4.7
11/10 – at Indianapolis: -3.1
11/17 – KANSAS CITY: +0
12/1 – SAN FRANCISCO: -1.1
12/8 – at LA Rams: -0.5
12/15 – at Detroit: +2.2
12/22 – NEW ENGLAND: -10
12/29 – NY JETS: -4.6
1/5 – at New England: -6.8

CAROLINA PANTHERS
9/8 – at New Orleans: +5.3
9/15 – LA CHARGERS: +4
9/22 – at Las Vegas: +6.2
9/29 – CINCINNATI: +6.7
10/6 – at Chicago: +7.1
10/13 – ATLANTA: +5.1
10/20 – at Washington: +4.6
10/27 – at Denver: +4.1
11/3 – NEW ORLEANS: +3.6
11/10 – vs. NY Giants: +2.7
11/24 – KANSAS CITY: +10.8
12/1 – TAMPA BAY: +4.5
12/8 – at Philadelphia: +10.2
12/15 – DALLAS: +6.2
12/22 – ARIZONA: +2.6
12/29 – at Tampa Bay: +6.6
1/5 – at Atlanta: +7.3

CHICAGO BEARS
9/8 – TENNESSEE: -3.9
9/15 – at Houston: +5.4
9/22 – at Indianapolis: +2
9/29 – LA RAMS: +0.8
10/6 – CAROLINA: -7.1
10/13 – vs. Jacksonville: +0.7
10/27 – at Washington: -0.6
11/3 – at Arizona: +0.8
11/10 – NEW ENGLAND: -5
11/17 – GREEN BAY: +2.9
11/24 – MINNESOTA: -2.3
11/28 – at Detroit: +6.5
12/8 – at San Francisco: +9.1
12/16 – at Minnesota: -0.3
12/22 – DETROIT: +3.5
12/26 – SEATTLE: -2.4
1/5 – at Green Bay: +5.8

CINCINNATI BENGALS
9/8 – NEW ENGLAND: -9.6
9/15 – at Kansas City: +6.2
9/23 – WASHINGTON: -9
9/29 – at Carolina: -6.7
10/6 – BALTIMORE: +0.9
10/13 – at NY Giants: -4.2
10/20 – at Cleveland: -0.9
10/27 – PHILADELPHIA: -1.9
11/3 – LAS VEGAS: -7.3
11/7 – at Baltimore: +4.4
11/17 – at LA Chargers: -0.9
12/1 – PITTSBURGH: -5.7
12/9 – at Dallas: +2.8
12/15 – at Tennessee: -3.2
12/19 – CLEVELAND: -4.7
12/29 – DENVER: -9.9
1/5 – at Pittsburgh: -1.8

CLEVELAND BROWNS
9/8 – DALLAS: -0.4
9/15 – at Jacksonville: +1.9
9/22 – NY GIANTS: -6
9/29 – at Las Vegas: +0
10/6 – at Washington: -1.6
10/13 – at Philadelphia: +4
10/20 – CINCINNATI: +0.9
10/27 – BALTIMORE: +3.9
11/3 – LA CHARGERS: -2.6
11/17 – at New Orleans: -0.1
11/21 – PITTSBURGH: -2.7
12/2 – at Denver: -2.1
12/8 – at Pittsburgh: +0.8
12/15 – KANSAS CITY: +4.2
12/19 – at Cincinnati: +4.7
12/29 – MIAMI: -1.3
1/5 – at Baltimore: +7

DALLAS COWBOYS
9/8 – at Cleveland: +0.4
9/15 – NEW ORLEANS: -6.7
9/22 – BALTIMORE: +0.2
9/26 – at NY Giants: -4.5
10/6 – at Pittsburgh: -0.5
10/13 – DETROIT: -1.8
10/27 – at San Francisco: +6
11/3 – at Atlanta: -0.2
11/10 – PHILADELPHIA: -1
11/18 – HOUSTON: -3
11/24 – at Washington: -4.5
11/28 – NY GIANTS: -8.1
12/9 – CINCINNATI: -2.8
12/15 – at Carolina: -6.2
12/22 – TAMPA BAY: -5.8
12/29 – at Philadelphia: +1.1
1/5 – WASHINGTON: -8.1

DENVER BRONCOS
9/8 – at Seattle: +5.2
9/15 – PITTSBURGH: +1.1
9/22 – at Tampa Bay: +5.6
9/29 – at NY Jets: +7.9
10/6 – LAS VEGAS: +1.1
10/13 – LA CHARGERS: +2.8
10/17 – at New Orleans: +4.3
10/27 – CAROLINA: -4.1
11/3 – at Baltimore: +12.2
11/10 – at Kansas City: +12.4
11/17 – ATLANTA: +2.3
11/24 – at Las Vegas: +3.6
12/2 – CLEVELAND: +2.1
12/15 – INDIANAPOLIS: +1.3
12/22 – at LA Chargers: +5.3
12/29 – at Cincinnati: +9.9
1/5 – KANSAS CITY: +9.6

DETROIT LIONS
9/8 – LA RAMS: -4.6
9/15 – TAMPA BAY: -6.7
9/22 – at Arizona: -3.8
9/30 – SEATTLE: -7.8
10/13 – at Dallas: +1.8
10/20 – at Minnesota: -4.9
10/27 – TENNESSEE: -9.3
11/3 – at Green Bay: +1.2
11/10 – at Houston: +0.8
11/17 – JACKSONVILLE: -6.6
11/24 – at Indianapolis: -2.6
11/28 – CHICAGO: -6.5
12/5 – GREEN BAY: -2.5
12/15 – BUFFALO: -2.2
12/22 – at Chicago: -3.5
12/30 – at San Francisco: +4.5
1/5 – MINNESOTA: -7.7

GREEN BAY PACKERS
9/6 – vs. Philadelphia: +0.6
9/15 – INDIANAPOLIS: -6.4
9/22 – at Tennessee: -3.6
9/29 – MINNESOTA: -7
10/6 – at LA Rams: +0.6
10/13 – ARIZONA: -7.1
10/20 – HOUSTON: -3.2
10/27 – at Jacksonville: -1.1
11/3 – DETROIT: -1.2
11/17 – at Chicago: -2.9
11/24 – SAN FRANCISCO: +0
11/28 – MIAMI: -4.4
12/5 – at Detroit: +2.5
12/15 – at Seattle: -2.2
12/23 – NEW ORLEANS: -6.9
12/29 – at Minnesota: -4.3
1/5 – CHICAGO: -5.8

HOUSTON TEXANS
9/8 – at Indianapolis: -2.2
9/15 – CHICAGO: -5.4
9/22 – at Minnesota: -2.9
9/29 – JACKSONVILLE: -3.9
10/6 – BUFFALO: -0.3
10/13 – at New England: -4.3
10/20 – at Green Bay: +3.2
10/27 – INDIANAPOLIS: -4.4
10/31 – at NY Jets: +1.1
11/10 – DETROIT: -0.8
11/18 – at Dallas: +3
11/24 – TENNESSEE: -6.6
12/1 – at Jacksonville: -1.3
12/15 – MIAMI: -3.2
12/21 – at Kansas City: +6.4
12/25 – BALTIMORE: +1.2
1/5 – at Tennessee: -3.8

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
9/8 – HOUSTON: +2.2
9/15 – at Green Bay: +6.4
9/22 – CHICAGO: -2
9/29 – PITTSBURGH: -2
10/6 – at Jacksonville: +1.9
10/13 – at Tennessee: -0.6
10/20 – MIAMI: +0.2
10/27 – at Houston: +4.4
11/3 – at Minnesota: +0.3
11/10 – BUFFALO: +3.1
11/17 – at NY Jets: +4.3
11/24 – DETROIT: +2.6
12/1 – at New England: -1.1
12/15 – at Denver: -1.3
12/22 – TENNESSEE: -3.2
12/29 – at NY Giants: -0.8
1/5 – JACKSONVILLE: -0.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
9/8 – at Miami: +4.5
9/15 – CLEVELAND: -1.9
9/23 – at Buffalo: +7
9/29 – at Houston: +3.9
10/6 – INDIANAPOLIS: -1.9
10/13 – vs. Chicago: -0.7
10/20 – vs. New England: -3.8
10/27 – GREEN BAY: +1.1
11/3 – at Philadelphia: +4.3
11/10 – MINNESOTA: -4.1
11/17 – at Detroit: +6.6
12/1 – HOUSTON: +1.3
12/8 – at Tennessee: -1.1
12/15 – NY JETS: -0.6
12/22 – at Las Vegas: +0.3
12/29 – TENNESSEE: -4.1
1/5 – at Indianapolis: +0.5

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
9/5 – BALTIMORE: -3.2
9/15 – CINCINNATI: -6.2
9/22 – at Atlanta: -4.8
9/29 – at LA Chargers: -5.8
10/7 – NEW ORLEANS: -10.1
10/20 – at San Francisco: +1.4
10/27 – at Las Vegas: -7.5
11/4 – TAMPA BAY: -9.2
11/10 – DENVER: -12.4
11/17 – at Buffalo: +0
11/24 – at Carolina: -10.8
11/29 – LAS VEGAS: -9.8
12/8 – LA CHARGERS: -8.1
12/15 – at Cleveland: -4.2
12/21 – HOUSTON: -6.4
12/25 – at Pittsburgh: -5.1
1/5 – at Denver: -9.6

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
9/8 – at LA Chargers: +2.7
9/15 – at Baltimore: +9.6
9/22 – CAROLINA: -6.2
9/29 – CLEVELAND: +0
10/6 – at Denver: -1.1
10/13 – PITTSBURGH: -1
10/20 – at LA Rams: +5.4
10/27 – KANSAS CITY: +7.5
11/3 – at Cincinnati: +7.3
11/17 – at Miami: +6
11/24 – DENVER: -3.6
11/29 – at Kansas City: +9.8
12/8 – at Tampa Bay: +3
12/16 – ATLANTA: +0.2
12/22 – JACKSONVILLE: -0.3
12/29 – at New Orleans: +1.7
1/5 – LA CHARGERS: +0.7

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
9/8 – LAS VEGAS: -2.7
9/15 – at Carolina: -4
9/22 – at Pittsburgh: +1.7
9/29 – KANSAS CITY: +5.8
10/13 – at Denver: -2.8
10/21 – at Arizona: -0.1
10/27 – NEW ORLEANS: -3
11/3 – at Cleveland: +2.6
11/10 – TENNESSEE: -4.7
11/17 – CINCINNATI: +0.9
11/25 – BALTIMORE: +3.9
12/1 – at Atlanta: +2
12/8 – at Kansas City: +8.1
12/15 – TAMPA BAY: -2.1
12/22 – DENVER: -5.3
12/29 – at New England: -1.8
1/5 – at Las Vegas: -0.7

LOS ANGELES RAMS
9/8 – at Detroit: +4.6
9/15 – at Arizona: -2.7
9/22 – SAN FRANCISCO: +2.8
9/29 – at Chicago: -0.8
10/6 – GREEN BAY: -0.6
10/20 – LAS VEGAS: -5.4
10/24 – MINNESOTA: -5.8
11/3 – at Seattle: -1.7
11/11 – MIAMI: -2.4
11/17 – at New England: -3.6
11/24 – PHILADELPHIA: +0
12/1 – at New Orleans: -1.8
12/8 – BUFFALO: +0.5
12/12 – at San Francisco: +5.6
12/22 – at NY Jets: +1.8
12/29 – ARIZONA: -4.3
1/5 – SEATTLE: -4.3

MIAMI DOLPHINS
9/8 – JACKSONVILLE: -4.5
9/12 – BUFFALO: +0.7
9/22 – at Seattle: -0.4
9/30 – TENNESSEE: -7.2
10/6 – at New England: -3.9
10/20 – at Indianapolis: -0.2
10/27 – ARIZONA: -5.7
11/3 – at Buffalo: +4.7
11/11 – at LA Rams: +2.4
11/17 – LAS VEGAS: -6
11/24 – NEW ENGLAND: -7.5
11/28 – at Green Bay: +4.4
12/8 – NY JETS: -2.1
12/15 – at Houston: +3.2
12/22 – SAN FRANCISCO: +1.4
12/29 – at Cleveland: +1.3
1/5 – at NY Jets: +1.5

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
9/8 – at NY Giants: +0.6
9/15 – SAN FRANCISCO: +6.1
9/22 – HOUSTON: +2.9
9/29 – at Green Bay: +7
10/6 – vs. NY Jets: +3.5
10/20 – DETROIT: +4.9
10/24 – at LA Rams: +5.8
11/3 – INDIANAPOLIS: -0.3
11/10 – at Jacksonville: +4.1
11/17 – at Tennessee: +1.6
11/24 – at Chicago: +2.3
12/1 – ARIZONA: -1
12/8 – ATLANTA: +0.7
12/16 – CHICAGO: +0.3
12/22 – at Seattle: +3
12/29 – GREEN BAY: +4.3
1/5 – at Detroit: +7.7

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
9/8 – at Cincinnati: +9.6
9/15 – SEATTLE: +0.4
9/19 – at NY Jets: +6.8
9/29 – at San Francisco: +12.2
10/6 – MIAMI: +3.9
10/13 – HOUSTON: +4.3
10/20 – vs. Jacksonville: +3.8
10/27 – NY JETS: +4
11/3 – at Tennessee: +3.5
11/10 – at Chicago: +5
11/17 – LA RAMS: +3.6
11/24 – at Miami: +7.5
12/1 – INDIANAPOLIS: +1.1
12/15 – at Arizona: +3.9
12/22 – at Buffalo: +10
12/29 – LA CHARGERS: +1.8
1/5 – BUFFALO: +6.8

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
9/8 – CAROLINA: -5.3
9/15 – at Dallas: +6.7
9/22 – PHILADELPHIA: +3.7
9/29 – at Atlanta: +2.4
10/7 – at Kansas City: +10.1
10/13 – TAMPA BAY: +0.5
10/17 – DENVER: -4.3
10/27 – at LA Chargers: +3
11/3 – at Carolina: -3.6
11/10 – ATLANTA: +1.1
11/17 – CLEVELAND: +0.1
12/1 – LA RAMS: +1.8
12/8 – at NY Giants: -0.3
12/15 – WASHINGTON: -3.4
12/23 – at Green Bay: +6.9
12/29 – LAS VEGAS: -1.7
1/5 – at Tampa Bay: +1.7

NEW YORK GIANTS
9/8 – MINNESOTA: -0.6
9/15 – at Washington: +1.1
9/22 – at Cleveland: +6
9/26 – DALLAS: +4.5
10/6 – at Seattle: +4.3
10/13 – CINCINNATI: +4.2
10/20 – PHILADELPHIA: +6
10/28 – at Pittsburgh: +5.1
11/3 – WASHINGTON: -1.1
11/10 – vs. Carolina: -2.7
11/24 – TAMPA BAY: +1.2
11/28 – at Dallas: +8.1
12/8 – NEW ORLEANS: +0.3
12/15 – BALTIMORE: +7.2
12/22 – at Atlanta: +5.4
12/29 – INDIANAPOLIS: +0.8
1/5 – at Philadelphia: +6.7

NEW YORK JETS
9/9 – at San Francisco: +6.8
9/15 – at Tennessee: -1.9
9/19 – NEW ENGLAND: -6.8
9/29 – DENVER: -7.9
10/6 – vs. Minnesota: -3.5
10/14 – BUFFALO: +1.4
10/20 – at Pittsburgh: +0.3
10/27 – at New England: -4
10/31 – HOUSTON: -1.1
11/10 – at Arizona: -1.5
11/17 – INDIANAPOLIS: -4.3
12/1 – SEATTLE: -5
12/8 – at Miami: +2.1
12/15 – at Jacksonville: +0.6
12/22 – LA RAMS: -1.8
12/29 – at Buffalo: +4.6
1/5 – MIAMI: -1.5

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
9/6 – vs. Green Bay: -0.6
9/16 – ATLANTA: -3.8
9/22 – at New Orleans: -3.7
9/29 – at Tampa Bay: -2.4
10/13 – CLEVELAND: -4
10/20 – at NY Giants: -6
10/27 – at Cincinnati: +1.9
11/3 – JACKSONVILLE: -4.3
11/10 – at Dallas: +1
11/14 – WASHINGTON: -6.7
11/24 – at LA Rams: +0
12/1 – at Baltimore: +4.2
12/8 – CAROLINA: -10.2
12/15 – PITTSBURGH: -5
12/22 – at Washington: -6
12/29 – DALLAS: -1.1
1/5 – NY GIANTS: -6.7

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
9/8 – at Atlanta: +2.9
9/15 – at Denver: -1.1
9/22 – LA CHARGERS: -1.7
9/29 – at Indianapolis: +2
10/6 – DALLAS: +0.5
10/13 – at Las Vegas: +1
10/20 – NY JETS: -0.3
10/28 – NY GIANTS: -5.1
11/10 – at Washington: -0.6
11/17 – BALTIMORE: +4.8
11/21 – at Cleveland: +2.7
12/1 – at Cincinnati: +5.7
12/8 – CLEVELAND: -0.8
12/15 – at Philadelphia: +5
12/21 – at Baltimore: +8
12/25 – KANSAS CITY: +5.1
1/5 – CINCINNATI: +1.8

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
9/9 – NY JETS: -6.8
9/15 – at Minnesota: -6.1
9/22 – at LA Rams: -2.8
9/29 – NEW ENGLAND: -12.2
10/6 – ARIZONA: -8.8
10/10 – at Seattle: -5.6
10/20 – KANSAS CITY: -1.4
10/27 – DALLAS: -6
11/10 – at Tampa Bay: -4.4
11/17 – SEATTLE: -8.8
11/24 – at Green Bay: +0
12/1 – at Buffalo: +1.1
12/8 – CHICAGO: -9.1
12/12 – LA RAMS: -5.6
12/22 – at Miami: -1.4
12/30 – DETROIT: -4.5
1/5 – at Arizona: -6.6

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
9/8 – DENVER: -5.2
9/15 – at New England: -0.4
9/22 – MIAMI: +0.4
9/30 – at Detroit: +7.8
10/6 – NY GIANTS: -4.3
10/10 – SAN FRANCISCO: +5.6
10/20 – at Atlanta: +3.4
10/27 – BUFFALO: +3.3
11/3 – LA RAMS: +1.7
11/17 – at San Francisco: +8.8
11/24 – ARIZONA: -1.5
12/1 – at NY Jets: +5
12/8 – at Arizona: +0.5
12/15 – GREEN BAY: +2.2
12/22 – MINNESOTA: -3
12/26 – at Chicago: +2.4
1/5 – at LA Rams: +4.3

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
9/8 – WASHINGTON: -4.7
9/15 – at Detroit: +6.7
9/22 – DENVER: -5.6
9/29 – PHILADELPHIA: +2.4
10/3 – at Atlanta: +1.5
10/13 – at New Orleans: -0.5
10/21 – BALTIMORE: +4.4
10/27 – ATLANTA: -0.2
11/4 – at Kansas City: +9.2
11/10 – SAN FRANCISCO: +4.4
11/24 – at NY Giants: -1.2
12/1 – at Carolina: -4.5
12/8 – LAS VEGAS: -3
12/15 – at LA Chargers: +2.1
12/22 – at Dallas: +5.8
12/29 – CAROLINA: -6.6
1/5 – NEW ORLEANS: -1.7

TENNESSEE TITANS
9/8 – at Chicago: +3.9
9/15 – NY JETS: +1.9
9/22 – GREEN BAY: +3.6
9/30 – at Miami: +7.2
10/13 – INDIANAPOLIS: +0.6
10/20 – at Buffalo: +9.7
10/27 – at Detroit: +9.3
11/3 – NEW ENGLAND: -3.5
11/10 – at LA Chargers: +4.7
11/17 – MINNESOTA: -1.6
11/24 – at Houston: +6.6
12/1 – at Washington: +1.4
12/8 – JACKSONVILLE: +1.1
12/15 – CINCINNATI: +3.2
12/22 – at Indianapolis: +3.2
12/29 – at Jacksonville: +4.1
1/5 – HOUSTON: +3.8

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
9/8 – at Tampa Bay: +4.7
9/15 – NY GIANTS: -1.1
9/23 – at Cincinnati: +9
9/29 – at Arizona: +3.3
10/6 – CLEVELAND: +1.6
10/13 – at Baltimore: +11.3
10/20 – CAROLINA: -4.6
10/27 – CHICAGO: +0.6
11/3 – at NY Giants: +1.1
11/10 – PITTSBURGH: +0.6
11/14 – at Philadelphia: +6.7
11/24 – DALLAS: +4.5
12/1 – TENNESSEE: -1.4
12/15 – at New Orleans: +3.4
12/22 – PHILADELPHIA: +6
12/29 – ATLANTA: +1.8
1/5 – at Dallas: +8.1

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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