Schein 9 NFL Week 6:

Am I still upset the Bengals didn’t win? Oh yeah.

Am I still buzzing about the Falcons finish to cover? Absolutely.

 

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Have I learned anything from the massive dogs winning this year in the NFL? Well, kind of.

I’ll take 7-7 this week from Make it Rain with Adam Schein.

Imagine if Sean McDermott actually ran the ball inside his own 5!

Maybe I should have my 9-year-old son Theo start placing my bets. He racked up 174 points in DFS this week to win $7. I always let him play a dollar. He stacked Stroud and Collins, playing Walker and Williams at running back, Kraft at tight end, Higgins, Brian Thomas, Darious Slayton joining Collins at wideout.

I had a strong week. I’m in a pool with 25 friends and racked up 150 points, finishing 3rd to place for the week. Theo talked trash all week saying he would win the Schein house. He was right.

And he now wants to start betting more than a buck each week.

Start em young, I guess.

Here are our midweek musings, plays, predictions, Schein 9 style:

1. Buh-bye, Bob

Bag it, Robert Saleh. It’s easy, obvious, and accurate to throw stones at the Jets. They’ve earned it with decades upon decades of chaos. Woody Johnson is a terrible owner. And he made it clear that he fired the coach. Normally, this would be a signal to cue up the clown music. Not the case here. Alexa, play “I Gotta Feeling”. There should be nothing but great vibes and celebratory reactions for Jets fans and Jets bettors. Saleh was terrible at his job. He did nothing well. Bad in-game coach. Bad with the press. Bad at getting teams ready. Saleh was 20-36 as the Jets head coach! I made a strong case that he should’ve been fired last year. And I’ve never uttered this phrase before, but I totally agree with Johnson when he said that this Jets roster oozes talent. This is why I backed the Jets preseason to win the division and hit their over 10.5 win total. And I still very much believe it can happen.

Saleh had to go after the Denver game. You can’t lose at home to Bo Nix when the rookie throws for negative yards in the first half. Jeff Ulbrich will have this team buttoned up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see offensive play calling changes to spark Aaron Rodgers and the stuck in the mud offense. Grab the Jets on the moneyline for Monday Night with the Bills coming to town. Love the Jets as a home dog with some bark.

Rich Gannon also weighed in on the Robert Saleh firing:

2. Maye Day

You knew it was going to happen at some point. The Patriots are turning to Drake Maye at quarterback. I am a huge fan of Maye. He needed (needs) time but I love his talent. Having said that, the Patriots offensive line is awful and the skill positions define oxymoron because they have no true talent. There will be growing pains. I know Jacoby Brissett isn’t a legit starter and Maye outplayed him in the preseason, but you cannot expect a miracle overnight. It will take time. Houston is a terrible first matchup. Will Anderson is a stud. DeMeco Ryans’ defense makes plays.

I understand the notion of getting tempted by the 7-point spread.

Take a look at the records against the spread for underdogs covering this year:

5+ Points: 17-3-2, .850

6+ Points: 14-2-2, .875

7+ Points: 7-1-1, .875

The trends say take the points. Houston is 1-4 ATS this year. A rookie quarterback with nothing around him and puts a halt on that take. Even with Nico Collins’ availability up in the air, I like Houston by double digits in New England.

3. Brownout

So the trends say if you aren’t going to pick the Patriots, find another dog you love. Well, that won’t be the ones from the Dawg Pound. We’ve been very successful this year betting against Cleveland, including last week with the Commanders as a best bet -3. Deshaun Watson looks disinterested and awful on the field. The trade is an all-time failure. 

The number is a monster at 9. Philly is off the bye and I expect the Eagles to play like a house on fire.

4. Bear It

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Caleb Williams is fresh off of a terrific game where he showed off his smarts and unreal traits. Williams has gotten better each and every week. He exploded against the Panthers. The Jaguars are next on the slate in London, and while the Jaguars finally won their first game of the year, they hardly looked good. The Bears are 4-1 against the spread this year.  They are 5-0 dating back to last year in their last five games they have been favored. Caleb keeps the good times rolling and spoils a lot of false narratives and nonsense about the quarterback.

5. Zac is Whack

I had the Bengals moneyline last week. Felt great with the Bengals up 10 against Baltimore in the fourth. Felt great after Lamar Jackson fumbled in overtime. Was physically ill watching Zac Taylor run the ball three times in overtime to hold for a field goal over 50 yards! That can’t happen. That really can’t happen in a game where Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns and nearly 400 yards! And the sports and betting gods were not happy. The holder dropped the ball, Money Mac missed the entire stadium, Derrick Henry popped off a long run, and the Ravens won AND covered. Disaster. Cincy fell to 1-4 and now have the Giants this Sunday night in New York. The Giants had as impressive a Week 5 win as any. I also loved the Seahawks laying the points. That didn’t happen. Big Blue showed some moxie winning in Seattle without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Daniel Jones, rightly maligned by yours truly, played terrific ball. The Giants pass rush was excellent.

And this is all why the Bengals are only favored by 3.5

Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are still an elite passing attack. Burrow challenged the entire organization by saying they weren’t up to being a championship-caliber team. I just cannot quit the Bengals.

6. Dak Is Back

If Dak Prescott ended up losing that Steelers game after throwing a couple of picks, the hot take artists would’ve been out in full force. I found it quite a monster deal that he won that kind of game late in the fashion he did. Plus, the Cowboys run game and run defense were really improved on the road in Pittsburgh. I picked the Cowboys ML last week. I’ll do the same this week with the Lions coming to Dallas. The Cowboys had won 16 straight at home. They’ve now lost three in a row, counting the Packers playoff debacle. Dallas gets going with a monster statement against the Lions.

7. Sleepless in Seattle

Ebb and flow on Sunday, the Niners’ home loss to the Cardinals was the most alarming and stunning of the week. San Francisco was in total command. And the Niners went 11-1 in 2022-23 combined against division foes. Well, the Niners choked, blew a double-digit lead to a division foe for the second time (remember the loss to the banged up Rams) this season. Something is off here about Kyle Shanahan’s team. Yes, they obviously miss Christian McCaffrey. But there still should be enough to hold onto these leads against inferior teams. That’s an important backdrop with Thursday’s quick turnaround in Seattle against another division rival. This is an underrated rivalry fueled on real hate. Seattle is coming off of a disastrous loss, favored by a touchdown against a Giants team without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Clearly, and inexplicably, Seattle was overlooking the Giants ahead of this game. Both teams will be laser focused. Which gives a major advantage to the Niners.

The 49ers are the first team in 36 years (1988 Broncos) to have a losing record through five games despite being a 4+ point favorite each game. That is a wild statistic and bucks a fascinating betting trend. I’m going to bank on conventional wisdom, talent, coaching, desperation in a Super Bowl or bust season. The Niners have won five straight against Seattle. It continues with a statement win and covering of the 3.5-point spread.

8. You Like That?!

The Falcons beating the Bucs in the fashion they did last Thursday to win and cover (you’re welcome) was pulsating. Think about the wild moments in that game, from the Mooney drop to the field goal blocked to the Irving fumble to the David pick of Cousins, to the penalty that negated a first down that forced a punt, to Kirko driving the team down the field, the anxiety of getting the team to the line to stop the clock at 1, only to have a delay of game, only to have Koo hit the field goal from 52 to send it to overtime, only to walk it off with a no-name outrunning the Bucs to the endzone and getting carried off the field.

Exhausting run-on sentence and finish.

But something is happening with the Falcons team. They went 2-1 against the Chiefs, Saints, and Bucs in a crazy stretch. They are 3-2 on the season and look like a team capable of handling business.

Every Atlanta game has been a one-score game this year. Carolina is 1-6 in its last 7 ATS. I don’t blink at the 6 points. I like that a lot with the Falcons laying 6. 

9. Cardinal Sin

Well, I like the Texans to cover. And the Falcons. And the Eagles. I have to pick a dog to win.

How about these nuggets from this wild NFL season:

7+ point underdogs are 7-2 straight this season (.778), easily the best record by 7+ point underdogs in a five-week span since 1970 (7+ point underdogs were 15-50 SU in 2023)

The only other five-week span they were over .500 was Weeks 4-8 in 1990 (7-6, .538 win pct).

The 2024 season features the best straight up records by 4+ pt, 5+ pt, 6+ pt, 7+ pt and 8+ pt underdogs through Week 5 since 1970. Also, 2024 features the best cover percentage by 5+ pt, 6+ pt and 7+ pt underdogs through Week 5 since 1970.

It would be a Cardinal sin not to find a big ML winner.

GImme the Cardinals.

James Connor. Trey McBride is a tough matchup for the Packers. And then there’s Kyler Murray, who is 8-0 ATS in past 8 starts as 5+ pt road underdog (6 outright wins)

How about these nuggets of domination in the gambling space:

Murray is 11-1-2 ATS in career as a 5+ pt road underdog. Kyler has the best cover percentage (92%) by any QB as a 5+ road underdog since merger (min. 10 such starts) and he’s 6-2 SU in past 8 starts as 5+ pt road underdog (Cardinals won last week at 49ers as 7.5-pt underdog).

Let’s ride.

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