Finding Super Bowl Prop Bets that cash at a high rate
Matty’s 6th Annual Big Game Prop-a-Rating-Palooza selections are set! If you aren’t familiar with my Prop-a-Rating-Palooza, be sure to read my article released last week in the 2024 Big Game Betting Primer and on VSiN.com to get some Super Bowl 58 prop bets insight.
After reviewing nearly 300 props for Super Bowl LVIII, in last season’s article, which included 17 props with an ‘exceptional rating’, I finished with a 10-7 record, down just 0.55 units. Five seasons into this adventure, my record is 51-20 (71.8%, +21.15 units).
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Following a deep-dive into the historical outcome of over 300 props for all of the Big Games dating back to 2002, there are 12 props that qualified as bettable for Super Bowl LVIII based on my ‘exceptional rating’. In short, the ‘exceptional rating’ is nothing more than a way to try and quantify the value of a prop’s betting line, and as a result, the advantage a bettor might have in placing a bet on that prop.
What is an ‘Exceptional’ Super Bowl prop bet?
Step 1: Using an odds converter, I determine the implied odds of a prop based on the percentage of times the outcome has been correct or incorrect.
Step 2: I then determine the difference in the odds listed for the prop in the sportsbook and the implied odds calculated in Step 1.
For example:
The team that has scored last has won the Super Bowl in 20 of the last 22 games, or 90.91% of the time. Using the odds converter, this translates to implied odds of -1000. This means I would expect to walk into a sportsbook and lay 10 units to win one unit that the team with the final score wins the Big Game. When I reach the sportsbook, I see that I actually need to lay only 2.3 units, or moneyline odds of -230, to win one unit, and I’ve saved 7.7 units from what I expected to have to wager. This allows me to determine my rating, by taking my -1000 implied odds and subtracting the sportsbook’s moneyline odds of -230, giving me an exceptional rating of 770.
In addition to determining an exceptional rating for each prop, I also set a minimum exceptional rating (kind of like a baseline) for a prop to be considered for a wager. The last three years I’ve set that minimum at an exceptional rating of greater than 500 (the prior two years the value was 400). Setting a minimum exceptional rating helps ensure that I am responsible with my selections by not betting every prop on the board.
My Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
Note: Results from the last 22 Super Bowls
| Prop (1u = 1 unit, 4u = 4 units, etc) | Wager | Yes | No | Implied Wager Odds | Actual Odds I’m Betting | Exceptional Rating |
| Longest field goal in game Over 54.5 | No, 6u | 0, 0.00% | 22, 100% | Infinity | -600 | Infinity |
| Will there be a kickoff return for a touchdown | Yes, 1u | 3, 13.64% | 19, 86.36% | +633 | +2700 | 2067 |
| Will the game be decided by exactly 11 points | Yes, 1u | 2, 9.09% | 20, 90.91% | +1000 | +3000 | 2000 |
| Any player 150+ receiving yards | No, 3.8u | 1, 4.55% | 21, 95.45% | -2098 | -380 | 1718 |
| Will there be a touchdown and field goal every quarter | Yes, 1u | 2, 9.09% | 20, 90.91% | +1000 | +2000 | 1000 |
| Will the game be decided by exactly 4 points | Yes, 1u | 3, 13.64% | 19, 86.36% | +633 | +1500 | 867 |
| Team to score last wins the game | Yes, 2.05u | 20, 90.91% | 2, 9.09% | -1000 | -205 | 795 |
| Will the opening kickoff be a touchback | No, 1u | 4, 18.18% | 18, 81.82% | -450 | +300 | 750 |
| Both teams to have 2+ field goals | No, 4u | 2, 9.09% | 20, 90.91% | -1000 | -400 | 600 |
| Will there be a safety | Yes, 1u | 4, 18.18% | 18, 81.82% | +450 | +1000 | 550 |
| First play from scrimmage will result in a 1st down | No, 5u | 2, 9.09% | 20, 90.91% | -1000 | -500 | 500 |
| Will the game be decided by exactly 14 points | Yes, 1u | 2, 9.09% | 20, 90.91% | +1000 | +1500 | 500 |
The most significant take-away of this year’s article is the spreadsheet containing nearly 250 prop results from the last 22 Super Bowls, as well as a breakdown of ‘Square’ results for all four quarters. I’ll be adding more as the week continues, so be sure to check it out!
The Super Bowl prop market this year resulted in fewer props with an ‘Exceptional Rating’ of 500+ than in previous seasons. Additionally, this year I found that a greater number of the props that did qualify include a larger risk and larger reward tag. Seven of my 12 props are dogs (+), many you might consider to be long-shots. I do realize that this year, more than any year previous, the margin for a significant swing into the red or black is very possible, if not likely. Finding a 4, 11 or 14-point margin when the clock reads 0:00 might make-or-break the evening.
Good luck with all your Big Game plays!
